[Tommy]

UConn tends to drift; they were down double digits vs Albany, Washington, and blew double digit lead vs Kentucky. Looking at numbers, and forgetting it is 11-seed George Mason from the CAA, we see that Patriots held three foes to 43,46,31% from the floor, as opponents took total of just 26 foul shots total in three games, so they defend well without fouling. #10 or higher seeds are 6-4 vs spread since '86, but only LSU in '86 won game. Dog covered last three east region finals, but before that, east was most chalk-friendly region. Home game for George Mason, from nearby Fairfax, VA. I wouldn't discount the Patriots in this one.

Villanova beat Florida 76-65 in second round of tournament last year (-1) in 4-5 game. Wildcats survived 35% shooting on Friday dispatching BC despite making only 4-19 from the arc. Florida 's three victims have shot 34.5,37.1,38.9%, so this Gator team is lot better defensively than last year's version. Dome setting favors a low scoring game. Will Florida be able to handle pressure that four Villanova guards put on them? Gators lost last three games in February, but are 8-0 in March. Teams that beat Florida have averaged scoring 76.7 ppg, so Villanova better find its shooting touch in difficult Metrodome, where there isn't lot of basketball played. setting. Dog covered last three midwest finals, winning three of last seven SU.