[Wigington]

I must be very picky because my selection just seems very limited right now, but maybe thats a good thing. Only two games this Saturday have caught me eye.

Notre Dame -7.5

Irish surviving the GT scare on the road and now they are a TD fav at home to Penn St. I think the value lies here with the Irish. Penn St rushed for 76 yds on 26 carries/206 passing yds and Time of Possession 22:31 compared to Akron's 37:29. Now back to the game at hand.

1. I really believe Penn St will have to rush for more than 76 yds
2. The fact that Penn St was -15 minutes in TOP would make me a little nervous going to play ND on the road.

As much as ND let down a lot of backers I think this is a bounce back spot for ND. I might buy the hook or wait to see if it goes back to 7. Give me the Irish as a 7 pt favorite.

Boston College +123

Another play I am probably in the minority on. While I will be monitoring to see if BC gets a FG a home, I like the Eagles to win SU at home. Just another "good spot" for the home team. BC failed to cover a DD spread on the road and now they go home and are a dog to Clemson. I want to look over each teams road/home records over the last 4 years.

BC (Home) Clemson (Road)

'05 -- 5-1 '05 -- 3-2
'04 -- 4-1 '04 -- 1-5
'03 -- 2-4 '03 -- 1-3
'02 -- 6-1 '02 -- 2-3
---------- ----------
17-7 7-13


While looking back on the '03/'02 seasons these might be different teams, Clemson has been a very sub-par road team. Laying points with them on the road is not any value whatsoever in my opinion.

Looking at this game from a linesmakers point of view this is how I see it.

You have #18 Clemson who opened up as a 1 pt dog, coming off of a blowout win at home to FL'ATL and BC a very disappointing win, NON-ATS.
This might as well be Clemson's 1st game of the year because can you really base anything they did at home vs a poor FL'ATL team and make an argument as to how they will perform on the road vs a much tougher Eagles squad? Linesmakers knew which way this line would shift and having a ranked team open up as a dog was the bait.

Considering BC's success at home alone warrants a play at a home getting change.

Talk me out of it.

[naught33]

gl w the plays...i def like the bc one...clemson isnt anything special, and i believe their best defensive player, waters is out for the yr after injuring his knee i think in their first game...like u said bc is always solid at home, they were en route to an easy cover last week b4 failing to play the last 9 minutes of the game, but got the win nonetheless, i expect them to do the same here to clemson and prob win by a td or more..

as for psu/nd value prob does like w nd, bc i dont think psu can match the firepower of the irish and u know nd will be up for this game esp after how flat they were t ostart the gt game....i expect nd to win, not sure about the pts, if i bet it id buy it down to 7 just to make sure i didnt get bit by the hook, but i prob will just watch it...ill look more closely at the lines tomorrow

[fondybadger]

Good Luck with the plays Charlie

[dananderson32]

god i refuse to bet ND after this past week ....i think their overated but when i go to bet against them they will blow out penn st by 25+

[Wigington]

Exaxctly Dan.

Sports are purely situational. I do like how ND was able to win a low scoring game. That tells me a little about their defense. I like the Irish in this spot.

[dananderson32]

yeah ill prob lay off nd/penn st have no real feel on the game...and after betting games like nd/gtech that i had no feel on really but wanted action i learned that lesson quick

[Wigington]

Here is how I see it.

ND was a 7 pt fav in GT

So now they go home and are an 8 pt fav?

Only 1 pt more being at home?