Early Thursday/Friday bets...

Caban · 09-11-06, 02:13 AM

I seem to do better when I don't limit myself to what I see as obvious bad lines, those are the ones that screw me up... I tend to not look as deeply into the factors leading into the game. Comparing trends, and I don't mean mathmatical betting trends. I couldn't care less if a team was 0-6 ATS on turf last season, or if they tend to cover as vs. their big rival.
(The only one I take into consideration are home dogs over 2 touchdowns)
What I take into account, and its wonderful early in the season before the lines catch up, are teams that are going downhill vs. teams on their way up.
Clemson(+4.5) @ Florida State will be something I lay on this weekend for example, but I expect the line to move towards FSU. Look out for the PSU/OSU line in two weeks... Florida(+4) at Tennessee shocks me.

To win consistently, you have to do a gut check on the teams involved. I wouldn't even call it a system, I go through all the games and get an initial reaction on them. Take those reactions, and then check the stats and schedules. Drop the ones where the numbers don't support by instinct, and then run with it.

Not really sure why I wrote that, but thats pretty much my entire system, and it usually takes about an hour. If you HAVE to spend an hour on a single game, you might as well be flipping a coin.

Anway,
West Virginia(-15) vs. Maryland
14 point wins over MTSU at home aren't impressive. The score was deceptive as Maryland was outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. MTSU ran for 145 yards, and ran for under 100 vs. Florida-International. Barring a breakdown(which can never be discounted in this game), WVU should gash Maryland's defense all night long.

Toledo(-5.5) vs. Kansas
How often is a 2-0 Big12 team a 5 point dog to an 0-2 MAC squad?
Toledo is getting a lot of respect lately, rightfully so in this game. All the research I need is KU's 2 point win against ULM. ULM threw for 377 yards, Toledo throws for a living. This will be an incredibly overrated win for Toledo and potentially skew their upcoming spread.

mbeller83 · 09-12-06, 04:09 PM

Im thinking about jumping on West Virginia today.. For some reason I think the line might go down a little bit though.

Tommy · 09-12-06, 07:26 PM

I like your thinking mbeller. I am liking WV myself. BOL on your plays. I agree, it's better to jump on a line early in the week if you think it will move out of your favor closer to gametime.

naught33 · 09-14-06, 01:15 PM

yeah wvu should win by 3 tds, should is the key word, i hate laying huge spreads on the road tho, but they def are the better team hereand unless they just dont show up for the game today i have no idea how they wouldnt cover...but the line has been jumping so we arent the only ones who think this lol

Caban · 09-16-06, 01:45 AM

I don't like to brag, but I'm 19-10 on bets here...
Pretty far up.

Took Iowa State +13, and Colorado State +3 as an early 2 way parlay tommorow.

09-11-06, 02:13 AM	#1 (permalink)
Caban SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 24	Early Thursday/Friday bets... I seem to do better when I don't limit myself to what I see as obvious bad lines, those are the ones that screw me up... I tend to not look as deeply into the factors leading into the game. Comparing trends, and I don't mean mathmatical betting trends. I couldn't care less if a team was 0-6 ATS on turf last season, or if they tend to cover as vs. their big rival. (The only one I take into consideration are home dogs over 2 touchdowns) What I take into account, and its wonderful early in the season before the lines catch up, are teams that are going downhill vs. teams on their way up. Clemson(+4.5) @ Florida State will be something I lay on this weekend for example, but I expect the line to move towards FSU. Look out for the PSU/OSU line in two weeks... Florida(+4) at Tennessee shocks me. To win consistently, you have to do a gut check on the teams involved. I wouldn't even call it a system, I go through all the games and get an initial reaction on them. Take those reactions, and then check the stats and schedules. Drop the ones where the numbers don't support by instinct, and then run with it. Not really sure why I wrote that, but thats pretty much my entire system, and it usually takes about an hour. If you HAVE to spend an hour on a single game, you might as well be flipping a coin. Anway, West Virginia(-15) vs. Maryland 14 point wins over MTSU at home aren't impressive. The score was deceptive as Maryland was outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. MTSU ran for 145 yards, and ran for under 100 vs. Florida-International. Barring a breakdown(which can never be discounted in this game), WVU should gash Maryland's defense all night long. Toledo(-5.5) vs. Kansas How often is a 2-0 Big12 team a 5 point dog to an 0-2 MAC squad? Toledo is getting a lot of respect lately, rightfully so in this game. All the research I need is KU's 2 point win against ULM. ULM threw for 377 yards, Toledo throws for a living. This will be an incredibly overrated win for Toledo and potentially skew their upcoming spread.
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09-12-06, 04:09 PM	#2 (permalink)
mbeller83 SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Palm Harbor, Fl Posts: 421	Im thinking about jumping on West Virginia today.. For some reason I think the line might go down a little bit though.
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09-12-06, 07:26 PM	#3 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	I like your thinking mbeller. I am liking WV myself. BOL on your plays. I agree, it's better to jump on a line early in the week if you think it will move out of your favor closer to gametime.
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09-14-06, 01:15 PM	#4 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	yeah wvu should win by 3 tds, should is the key word, i hate laying huge spreads on the road tho, but they def are the better team hereand unless they just dont show up for the game today i have no idea how they wouldnt cover...but the line has been jumping so we arent the only ones who think this lol __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
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09-16-06, 01:45 AM	#5 (permalink)
Caban SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 24	yeah... I don't like to brag, but I'm 19-10 on bets here... Pretty far up. Took Iowa State +13, and Colorado State +3 as an early 2 way parlay tommorow.
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