[nekbug]

After a week of heavy contemplation and soul searching I'm back with this week's plays....wait I forgot, I sold my soul six months ago for a 5th

All levity aside...here's first writeup and play of day...back later this morning with complete plays

Louisville -14 @ Kansas St

Maybe not as sexy as West Virginia but the Cards definitely can make a case for being top dog in Big East. Petrino's multiple set O is 6th along the ground and 7th through the air heading into this one, and all the more remarkable when you consider they've lost Bush for the year and now Brohm for 4-6 weeks. Smith/Stripling have proven to be quite capable stepping in for Bush and team missed nary a beat when Hunter Cantwell moved behind center last week against Miami. Plus they can play some D, just ask Miami. On the other side we've got Kansas St whose 3-0 is a mirage. When Marshall at home is your toughest to date...please. Wildcats are 14th against the run, but last time I checked few D coordinators laying awake at night fretting over Illinois St FAU or Marshall. Cards should have little trouble unmasking this D adding to their 15 rushing tds. Expect 4 today. Should also be aware that heading into this season Kansas St was one of the worst against the spread in non conference games, 1-8 previous 3 yrs, and while they covered both non con games this season Louisville presents too stiff a test. Wildcats are about to be declawed, lay the points and relax Louisville 48-20


YTD 13-9-2 +1.91

[Tommy]

I like the Cardinals to get to at least the 2nd Bowl this year. They are no joke.

Like the selection Nek. Best of Luck today

[nekbug]

Rice @ Florida St -31

First time for these 2 and it's going to be one the Owls remember for quite some time. Things aren't like they used to be down in the Orange state, but if there was ever a recipe for what ails Seminoles anemic ground attack this is it. Rice is 115th against the rush, 5.7 per attempt. Granted they've played some solid opponents, covering their first two (HOU and UCLA) before the debacle last week at Texas, but the Noles are at home coming off a home loss and need this one bad. Bowden whips them and whips them hard in a romp 47-7

Kent St @ Bowling Green -7

This may be the best play on the day after Louisville. Kent snapped their 11 game losing streak last week by eeking out a 16-14 win over Miami (Ohio) but I wouldn't think about putting up the mortgage on the Golden Flashes just yet. A look inside the numbers reveals much: despite a very respectable 15.5 pts against the last two Kent's giving up yds, lots of yards against mid to weak offenses, 171 on the ground to Army and 92 last week to Miami's Murphy. And they've scored 30 pts in three games. BG is a young team still finding its way but they can score, 81 in their last two, led by sophmore QB Anthony Turner and Rb Freddie Barnes (327 yds 5.0 per carry 5 tds) with a solid OL which has only allowed 4 sacks to date. So when we boil it all down BG's strengths will negate Kent's stingy but suspect D for a 27-14 win

Tulsa +5 @ Navy

Really thought about taking Golden Hurricanes on a straight ML but in the end opted for safe play of points. This one in my opinion is a classic case of public being overly impressed by a team's previous game. Navy shallacked Stanford but lets not forget the middies looked far from impressive the week prior struggling to 1 pt win over lowly Massachusetts. Mid's are a ball control rush first team who have trouble holding on to the ball. 11 Fumbles so far in 3 games. Tulsa is 2-1 and bounced back nicely last week to drub North Texas erasing their stinker against BYU. Liked Tulsa before year began, think they've got something brewing and expect them to build on last season's 9-4 with another bowl invite. Which means they have to take care of business in games like today's...going to be close but i see Tulsa 24-20


Washington St @ Stanford +10

Cougars open their Pac 10 season with a trip to Stanford, never easy for them. Cards hold 32-23-1 edge in series record and won at St last yr 24-21. Stanford's looked dreadful so far and they're going nowhere but given the history of these two I'll take the double digits and say a wee prayer. Washington 28-21

Arizona St +8 @ California

Write it down that you heard it here first...St not only covers they win it outright. Bears recovered nicely from opening debacle against Tenn with wins over Minnesota (had to have it) and Portland St (less than impressive). Look at last week's game, all the scoring in the first half. Bears couldn't move the ball for a score against a Div I AA squad at home? That they shut out the Vikings through the final 30 becomes alot less impressive once you know they knocked Port's 1 and 2 signal callers out of game in first quarter. Zona St on the other hand is coming in to this one off of a solid win over Colorado in Boulder. Rudy Carpenter has thrown for 9 tds to date and they are averaging a 150+ on the ground and 47.1% on 3 down conversions. On the D side Devil's at 279 a game, just over a 100 on the ground, and they have intercepted 5 returning 2 for 6 pts. Opportunity knocks and Zona St answers to win 31-28.

[nekbug]

sorry for delay getting writeups this morning friends, trying to get them in between running the business and goofing off...more to follow shortly

[Teaser5]

GL with your picks nekbug

[nekbug]

Alabama @ Arkansas -2

Freshman Qb Mitch Mustain has added a new dimension to Razorbacks. Combined with tailback Darren McFadden the Hogs have things rolling. Mustain threw for 224 yds and 3 tds to beat Vandy on the road last week in a nice follow up to his debut against Utah St. McFadden's averaging 6.2 a pop to lead SEC's leading ground attack. Defensively Ark's a solid unit, the 50 put by USC should be seen for what it is as Trojans put up 50 against just about everybody. On the other hand we've got the Tide and their 3-0 record which may be the biggest farce in the land. Failed to cover at home against Hawaii and Vandy and then butt slapped poor UL Monroe last week. I'm not impressed by Tide or Shula. Arkansas unmasks the great pretenders today, 21-10

Notre Dame -3 @ Michigan St

Wies, Quinn and company bounce back. They needed the attitude adjustment that comes with last week's humiliating loss. This week it's Spartans that are ripe for the big let down. 3-0 coming off a 5-6 '05, a big win last week against Pitt on the road, all of it points to Michigan St thinking they've turned the corner. They are about to, but when u turn the corner it is always better if you let the truck pass first. Spartans going to walk head first into a spanking...Notre Dame 35-20

Oklahoma St @ Houston -1

Couple of undefeated going at it tonight. Evenly matched but I'll stick with home side in a close and highly entertaining contest...houston 31-28


good hunting compadres


Ytd 13-9-2 +19.1

[jron619]

Originally Posted by nekbug

Notre Dame -3 @ Michigan St

Wies, Quinn and company bounce back. They needed the attitude adjustment that comes with last week's humiliating loss. This week it's Spartans that are ripe for the big let down. 3-0 coming off a 5-6 '05, a big win last week against Pitt on the road, all of it points to Michigan St thinking they've turned the corner. They are about to, but when u turn the corner it is always better if you let the truck pass first. Spartans going to walk head first into a spanking...Notre Dame 35-20

This one I like OVER............GL