[Gamehendge]

11-01-04 CFB

Best Pick Record = 11-4
Strong Pick Record = 11-8
Regular Pick Record = 10-6

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11-01 Wednesday

Fresno State @ Boise State (Winner and Graded)

Best Pick = Boise State -21

Boise State stack up well against a bad Fresno
State team. They have one of the best rushing
games in the nation going up against an average
run defense. The Bulldogs have had some success
at running the ball this year, racking up 159
YPG, but Boise State have the 9th best rushing
defense, only giving up 77 YPG on the ground.
More than likely the Broncos will be leading by
14 or more before halftime, which will force
Fresno State to pass the ball which is'nt their
strong point. Boise State is currently ranked
14th, and need a ranking of 12th or better to
get an automatic BCS bid. Boise State have to
beat up on teams like this in order to have a
chance at a bid, which would be gigantic for
their program.

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11-04 Saturday


Hawaii @ Utah State

Best Pick = Hawaii -26 (3:05 ET)

Hawaii leads the nation in scoring with 45.4 PPG,
passing 421.9 YPG, and total offense 529.2 YPG.
Hawaii has scored 68 points in two of its past th-
ree games, and against teams above Utah State in
the conference standings. The Aggies gave up 600
yards in their last game to Louisiana Tech, who
are not exactly known for their offense. Utah Stat-
e's defense ranks 112th in the country in YPG, gi-
ving up 417.4, 110th in PPG surrendering 33.2, and
89th in passing YPG with 223. On offense they're
115th in the country with 245.5 YPG, 111th in pas-
sing YPG, which is what they'll need to do, and
their ranked 116th with 11.2 PPG. All these numbe-
rs were accumulated by far worse teams than Hawaii.
The Aggies also turned to a true freshman QB, and
although they've been playing better with him in,
he's never had a task like this in trying to gun
it out with the best offense in the nation. The
only reason this line is not in the 30's is becau-
se it's in Utah, and there's always a possibility
of snow, which would go against Hawaii who is used
to playing in a warm climate. Just checked the we-
ather as of 9PM Friday and there are supposed to
be some light snow showers/rain overnight, but it's
supposed to clear by early afternoon and be in the
high 50's, and sunny/partly cloudy with hardly any
wind. Even with this I still like Hawaii's chances
because I think they have potential to win by 40
or more fairly easy.

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Ball State @ Michigan (12PM ET)

Best Pick = OVER 48 Points

Ball State's defense is pretty bad, ranking 116th
in total YPG. Michigan's offense have not been pu-
tting up huge numbers lately and will be looking
to get something going so they have some momentum
going into their final two games against far better
opponents. The Cardinals surprisingly come into
this game with the 14th ranked passing game in the
country, averaging 264.7 passin YPG. The Wolverines
only weakness this year has been their pass defense,
giving up 207 YPG this season. Michigan opened up
as a 35 point favorite, so that means the experts
believe Michigan will atleast score 35. They must
have calculated Ball State scoring atleast 6 points,
meaning that Michigan will need to score 7 mo-
re to hit 48. Ball State should score atleast 13
with such a good passing game, and more than like-
ly Michigan having a good bit of back-ups playing
the second half. I predict at the very least the
score will be Michigan 41, Ball State 13.

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Ball State @ Michigan (12PM ET)

Strong Pick = Ball State +35 (bought 1 point)

Although Ball State has a losing record of 3-6,every
team that did beat them had a winning record, and
their biggest margin of defeat was by 14.Michigan
have not had a bye week this year, and are banged up,
and I believe they will treat this one like a bye,
giving their back-ups a good bit of playing time.
Ball State surprisingly come into this game with the
14th ranked passing game in the country, averaging
264.7 passing YPG. The Wolverines only weakness this
year has been their pass defense, giving up 207 YPG
this year through the air. Michigan have not scored
over 20 points in their last 3 games, and this was
against average opponents. Manningham's abscence is
obviously a huge reason why the Wolverines offensive
production has declined, and although he has been
running in practice, there's no way they'd bring him
back this soon against a team they should have no
problem beating. They also have two big games against
Indiana and Ohio State to follow and know they need
him to have any chance against the Buckeyes. Lloyd
Carr also mentioned that he is'nt thrilled about pl-
aying this game one bit because of the respect he
has for good friend, and former assistant, Brady Ho-
ke, who is now Ball States head coach. He might be
resistant to run up the score, between that and giv-
ing his back-ups a good bit of playing time.

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Penn State @ Wisconsin (12PM ET)

Strong Pick = Wisconsin -6 (bought 1/2 point)

Wisconsin is having a dream season, and are coming
into this game 8-1, their only loss to #2 Michigan.
Penn State (6-3) is having an okay year, but still
lack a big win. If they had an experienced QB, they
would have won atleast one of those 3 big games they
lost. I don't see this game being any different. Wis-
consin has a great defense and should keep Penn State
under 14 points. The only thing that worries me abo-
ut this game is Wisconsin running back, P.J Hill is
listed as probable after getting knocked out of the
game with a neck injury last week against Illinois.
He should play, but if he does'nt or he gets knocked
out again, this game could be closer than I'd want
it to be. Penn State has just been to inconsistent,
and are horrible in the redzone. The Badger's have
been solid all year, and home field advantage will
be huge for them. Wisconsin 27, PSU 13.

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Boston College @ Wake Forest (7PM ET)

Strong Pick = Boston College -3 (bought 1/2 point)

Both teams come into this game with a 7-1 record.
All 7 teams that Wake beat though have losing recor-
ds. Five of Boston College's wins were to teams with
winning records. Wake's leading rusher, Kevin Harris,
is out after injuring himself in last weeks game.
This could end up being huge since their ground game
is their strongest weapon, and Boston College have
had alot of success at stopping the run, and rank
13th in nation against it. This game will also be the
ESPN2 night game. Wake Forest have not been in the
national spotlight for some time and should be a bit
nervous coming into this one. Boston College have
been in a few nationally televised games this year,
and came out the victor in everyone.

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LSU @ Tennessee (3:30 ET)

Strong Pick = LSU -3 (bought 1 point)

The Tigers will be catching the Volunteers at a pre-
tty good time. Their starting QB, Eric Ainge has a
sore ankle and has been limited to practice all week,
and their leading rusher, LaMarcus Coker is out for
atleast two more weeks. They're also banged up at WR
and other positions as well. LSU's defense come into
this game ranked 1st in total YPG, surrendering only
211.6, and ranked 2nd in points scored with a measly
8.3 per game. LSU have a more balanced offense oppo-
sed to Tennessee throwing the ball far more than
running. LSU is also coming off a bye week, giving
them two weeks to prepare for a big time opponent
like Tennessee. The Volunteers have been getting it
done all season, but they'll finally hit a snag aga-
inst a great defensive team with a good offense to
go along with it.

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Pittsburgh @ South Florida (12PM ET)

Regular Pick = Pittsburgh -4

Both teams are having a descent year, but both lack
beating a quality opponent. Here's a chance for both
of them, and I believe Pitt will end up being to mu-
ch for South Florida. Pitt's offense is averaging 34
PPG, and will try to go up early to take away the
rushing game, and South Florida is not built to come
from behind. They'll be forced to throw the ball ag-
ainst a underated Pitt defense who is only giving up
161 YPG through the air. Pitt wins by 10 or more and
makes things interesting in the Big East.

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Georgia Tech @ NC State (7PM ET)

Regular Pick = Georgia Tech -4

Georgia Tech plain and simple are a much better team.
They're also playing for their division title, which
is in their control being up one game on everyone
else in their division. Two of North Carolina's wins
were to good teams, but they've also lost to some
teams that were'nt that good. Georgia Tech's defense
will be the difference in this game, and should dom-
inate a struggling Wolfpack offense.

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Ohio State @ Illinois (3:30 ET)

Regular Pick = Ohio State -24

Ohio State have outscored their last 3 opponents by
a total of 126-10, all were Big Ten teams. Here comes
Illinois to add to that. Illinois have been success-
ful running the ball, but have not had much success
throwing the ball, which they'll have to do alot in
this game since Ohio State is going to score early.
Should be 27-7 by halftime. I'll probably wait till
shortly before kickoff though to put anything on th-
is because Buckeyes WR, Anthony Gonzalez had a slight
concusion last week against Minnesota in the first
half, and did not return for the second half. This
was probably just a precaution, and Tressel said he
expected him to be available for this game. Still
though, I'm gonna wait and see because he's a huge
part of their offense, and covering such a large
spread on the road without him would be challenging.

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Missouri @ Nebraska (3:30)

Regular Pick = OVER 50 Points

Missouri come into this game ranked 19th in the nat-
ion in PPG, with 30.6, and Nebraska rank 8th in scor-
ing with 34.2 PPG. Nebraska is giving up 219.4 pass-
ing YPG, and will be facing Missouri's 17th ranked
passing game. The Cornhuskers have been scoring on
the ground and the air, and will be facing an avera-
ge defense who has'nt played anyone this potent on
offense, with the exception of Oklahoma, who were
without Peterson but still scored 26.

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