[Tommy]

BCS Championship Monday, January 8th

BCS Championship Game , Glendale, Arizona
Florida vs. Ohio State, 8:00 EST

Florida:
1-6 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
8-1 Under vs. non-conference opponents

Ohio State:
8-2 ATS off a home conference win
16-6 ATS as a favorite

Anything can happen in one game, but Ohio State was clearly best team in country this season, so much so that the race for #2 actually became intriguing. Despite replacing nine seniors on defense from LY's team, Buckeyes beat Texas in Austin, beat Michigan, and won only two games all season by less than 17 pts (they were 9-3 vs. spread, despite being double digit favorite in nine games). If I had vote for #1 in final poll, I might vote for Ohio State even if they lose this game.

Jim Tressel has won five national titles, four at the I-AA level, so you know he's terrific in spots like this; not only does he have the best team, he has a senior QB Urban Meyer won and covered his bowl game the last three years; they have senior QB in Leak, and have odd system of putting in frosh QB Tebow, a better runner, when they have short yardage situations. Anyone who wins the SEC is a worthy opponent, but Florida eeked out wins to get to this point. Ohio State crushed people (except for Michigan, Illinois) to get here.

Ohio State is playing an Arizona bowl for fourth time in last five years, having won Fiesta Bowl in '02.'03 and '05; under Tressel, they've become dominant big game team. With QB Smith trying to ride off in blaze of glory, its hard to envision Ohio St losing this game.

I like the Buckeyes to win the national title and also cover.

[Tommy]

BCS Championship Preview

Everything has gone right for the Ohio State Buckeyes so far this season. They completed their schedule with a 12-0 record, got past Big Ten rival Michigan, retained the top ranking from start to finish, and got a Heisman Trophy for quarterback Troy Smith. Now all that's left for the Buckeyes to do is win the national title game on Monday.

And both oddsmakers and bettors like Ohio State's chances of getting that 13th victory when they play the Florida Gators at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (8:30pm ET, FOX). The Buckeyes opened as big 8-point favorites back when the bowl lines came out, and action through the month of December only dropped that line to 7 or 7.5 at most books. The game's total has gone from an opening 48 to a current 46 points.

So let's look at those numbers first. We know the Buckeyes and the Gators were a combined 24-1 straight-up this season, but how well did Ohio State and Florida pay off for their supporters? Putting money down on Ohio State proved to be lucrative; Troy Smith and company went 9-3 against-the-spread in 2006. As well, the Buckeyes were 4-1 ATS away from their home stadium and 8-3 ATS as the favored team. However, Ohio State did pick up two ATS losses in their final three games, including vs. Michigan.

Florida, on the other hand, only managed to cover the spread in three of their 11 contests in 2006, and they were 0-4 ATS on the road. The Gators, though, did cover the spread in their last game, a 38-28 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks that allowed them to move up to the No. 2 ranking and earn a shot at the national title. The BCS Championship Game marks the first time all year the Gators are listed as the underdog.

As for the total, OVER bettors have lost a bundle on both Ohio State and Florida so far this season. The Buckeyes were 3-9 on the OVER/UNDER in 2006, while the Gators were 3-8. Both teams, though, are coming off convincing OVER results - the Buckeyes and Wolverines combined for 81 points in their clash back on November 18, while the total for the big Gators/Razorbacks contest on December 2 had been listed at 45 points.

One big question for Ohio State in this matchup - will they be rusty? The Buckeyes haven't seen any game action since beating Michigan 50 days ago. The Gators have played twice since then - topping both Florida State and Arkansas in high-profile matchups. Smith went 29-of-41 for 316 yards against the Wolverines, with four touchdown passes and one interception. Antonio Pittman had 18 carries for 139 yards and a score, while Ted Ginn Jr. had eight catches for 104 yards and a single touchdown.

Gators quarterback Chris Leak is coming off a poor outing in the SEC title game against Arkansas. Leak completed just 16-of-30 pass attempts for 189 yards, with one touchdown (plus one rushing touchdown) and two interceptions. Percy Harvin had six carries for 105 yards and a score, and five catches for 62 yards and a score. Against the Seminoles Leak completed 21-of-34 pass attempts for 283 yards with two TD tosses.

Florida played three other times against ranked opponents in 2006 - beating Tennessee and LSU, but getting tagged for a loss by Auburn in mid-October. Leak threw for just 108 yards against the Tigers, and Harvin was held to just 66 yards on the ground. Those two will need to step up their games against top-ranked Ohio State on Monday night if the Gators have any chance of proving everyone wrong and winning the game.

[AUTIGER]

Nice writeup but you don't lay that many points against an Sec squad. Thought you would have learned by now Naught.

[Tommy]

It's not my writeup Matt and I'm Tommy Just thought some people would be interested in some info for tonight's game. Everyone has thier opinion...

BOL and have a great day

[AUTIGER]

I realized I typed Naught a little too late....opinions are needed because laying that much chalk against an Sec squad is almost unheard of...Buckeyes long lay off and have choke written all over them. Best of Luck tonight Tommy.

[beefree]

let me just say this.i never if rarely play against an undefeated team-until they lose.florida in my opinion should not be here.very close loss to scarolina,beat a arkansas team that had all kinds of trouble scorin vs somewhat suspect wisky team,an in that win flo/ark it was close at end until ark player dropped punt on 10 yd line which gators recovered an florida won by 10,not to mention loss to a somewhat suspect auburn team albeit a very good team but only thing is that 51 days is an awful loong time between games but flo is in same boat.also 7 pts is huge in a game of this magnitude.im still going over my choice.

[Tommy]

Yep BF, almost 2 months and laying a TD is too much for me...

I'll probably just make a halftime play.

[beefree]

well its also 51 days for them too.ill most likely but not sure yet-to take a big teaser with os an with total.like i stated im my threads i rarely if ever play teasers but in bowl games an nfl playoffs they are great.i have hit at least 8 in a row an in 4 of them the team did not cover. so that might be a good angle tommy. btw my name is bob

[nshtt]

This is going to be blow out city... Florida shouldn't be there, Ohio State is by far the best team and Florida is barely the 4th best team, in the nation (IMO). The lay off does kind of worry me but Ohio State is soooooo much better then florida it shouldn't be a factor. Don't be a suprised if Ohio State wins by 21 but I'm predicting 10+.

[Tommy]

Originally Posted by beefree

well its also 51 days for them too.ill most likely but not sure yet-to take a big teaser with os an with total.like i stated im my threads i rarely if ever play teasers but in bowl games an nfl playoffs they are great.i have hit at least 8 in a row an in 4 of them the team did not cover. so that might be a good angle tommy. btw my name is bob free

I know it's 51 days for both teams, no one has the advantage but it's a crapshoot who comes out to start the game better. If Ohio St. comes out rusty and Florida comes out gunning, Florida might take a TD or 2 lead and then the cover is almost screwed at that point.

But that's why they call it gambling

[beefree]

well no one has a crystal ball.who really knows -i never put my eggs all in one basket. its only 1 game an its a very hard game to cap i my opinion.im in for the loong haul.dont forget all florida teams so far have won in the bowl games.