[fondybadger]

Thursday 9/1
$50 Buffalo +18
$100 Oregon -8.5 POD (buy to 7)
$75 Minnesota -15 (buy to 14)
I have breakdowns for all of these games on BTB, but the site has been down since last Friday, and I don't feel like retyping them... I like Buffalo because UConn needs to replace their QB and Buffalo got better at the end of the year. Oregon and Minny are both too good of teams for the competition they're facing. Offensively especially their strenghts matchup against the week points of their opponents.

Friday 9/2
Arizona at Utah -7
Some individuals may not agree with this pick. Alex Smith left to become the number one pick for SF, Utah’s leading rusher Marty Johnson is no longer on the team, top WR’s Paris Warren and Steve Savoy are gone as is safety Steve Savoy. Not to mention Urban Meyer leaving to coach Florida.

What does that leave for Utah? A star studded offensive and defensive line. Once again Utah will have the best offensive lines in the Mountain West. Marques Ledbetter and Tavo Tupoia are NFL prospects who will help anchor a spectacular defensive line. We all know it is the solid-experienced defensive lines that help cover our plays. Utah has Steve Fifita who as a huge defensive tackle can easily occupy two or so blockers. They have solid linebacker in Spencer Toone and a SS in Eric Weddle. Utah definitely has an experienced defense going for it.

They also have a former High School All-American taking over for Alex Smith in Brian Johnson. He was able to get his experience last year seeing a little bit of playing time as a true freshman throwing for 142 yards and a touchdown with an interception in a backup roll as a true freshman and should be ready to go this year. At RB Utah has Quinton Ganther, and honorable mention all-conference player last year who as a senior is experienced and will help pace the passing attack. Also on the defensive line Utah also has a DB who transferred from Washington that will be able to step in right away, and a freshman WR who set Utah’s all time high school TD receptions and yards and was a state champion in the 100 meters as well as a 3 time all-state BASKETBALL Player. Utah definitely has the players to win this game by more than a touchdown.

Arizona can play up to their opponents at time. The Wisconsin game last year comes to my mind. Mike Stoops is one hell of a coach, but most of his starters are leftover players from being he got there. Sure they’re upperclassmen, but they’re not as talented as his more recent recruits. I feel that Arizona will be able to improve as the season goes on, but in its first game they’ll be in trouble. Simply put I feel that Arizona won’t be able to score against the Utah defense. RB Mike Bell will be limited against Utah’s great defensive line, putting the pressure on QB Richard Kovalcheck. Kovalcheck threw for 6 td’s and 6 int’s playing in the final four games as a freshmen last year. Not the greatest stats, but considering Arizona’s offense was one of the worst in the nation last year it isn’t too bad. If things weren’t bad enough for the QB he’s coming off of back surgery and missed all of spring ball. One stat I don’t care for is that the betting public is correct when moving the money line in ARIZONA games 73.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-5). The line has definitely moved towards Arizona in this game as it opened at a nine and I’m getting it at -7… I feel there is such a strong line movement because of Utah being disrespected. How many other top 15-20 teams would only be a 7 point favorite at HOME against Arizona? There are none that I can think of. I predict that Utah should win by 17-24.
PLAY:
$200 Utah -7 (POD)

Indiana -9 at Central Michigan
This game was a NO-play for me before I knew for a fact that Jerry Seymour would be dismissed for a team. Without him, I really like the play. Seymour was a candidate to be one of the top 10 players in the nation in total offense, so his loss will not only devastate the offense (rushing and receiving out of the backfield), but will hurt them on special teams as a kick returner. This will force CMU to put the ball in the air, as the backup Spencer Lewis is more of a power back who is more effective with limited touches.

CMU actually got worse as the season went on last year. Especially on defense as they gave up a ton of points. Indiana is returning 19 starters this year and should be able to take advantage of CMU once again to add a win to the column. I am a bit concerned with Indiana’s poor defense, but I think there CB’s will be the most improved this year which will help shut down the one dimensional CMU offense. I’m personally going to buy points this year to get the points down to normal football games. Yes I’m losing value here betting $75 to win $50, but this is a game that I think would be worth to buy down. Indiana should win by 7 to 17…
PLAY:
$50 Indiana -7 ($75 to win $50)

Saturday 9/3
Bowling Green at Wisconsin -2.5
This is one of those games where I think it will be up the air and come down to the end. I have every confidence that the Badgers will prevail. Here’s why:

-New offensive coordinator Paul Chryst should boost up the play of the quarterbacks. John Stocco will have to be more of a playmaker and not just an afterthought for a rushing offense, and he appears capable of doing it now that he has a year of starting experience. He'll be a more decisive quarterback and should be involved in the offense more,

-BRIAN CALHOUN!!! (Everyone remember what he did at Colorado – now he’s returned home)

-The Badger WR’s are a better receiving corps than the stats show. Brandon Williams has been one of the Big Ten's steadiest receivers for the last few years, and Jonathan Orr has the talent to reemerge as a star. Owen Daniels is one of the Big Ten's best pass catching tight ends.

-Center Donovan Raiola leads a typically massive Wisconsin starting five with some bright young stars waiting in reserve. True freshman Andy Kemp appears a mortal lock for All-Big Ten honors over the next few years, but he still has to crack his way into the lineup.

-Wisconsin lost Erasmus James, Anttaj Hawthorne, Jason Jefferson and Jonathan Welsh. One of the nation's best front fours won't be easily replaced right away, but production isn't going to fall off the map with some big young talents, especially at tackle. Ends Jason Chapman, Joe Monty and Jamal Cooper will get into the backfield consistently, while Justin Ostrowski should be the next great Badger tackle.
-The linebackers should be the strength of the defense until the front four gets its feet wet. It's an undersized crew by Big Ten standards, but it can move with safety-turned-linebacker Dontez Sanders and Mark Zalewski strong pass rushers from the outside. MLB Andy Crooks will be an All-Big Ten honoree before his career is done.

-A major concern against BG is the secondary. Not only did the Badgers lose Scott Starks and Jim Leonhard from the nation's 7th best pass defense, returning starting CB Brett Bell is coming off a torn ACL. Several young prospects have to grow up in a hurry, but I have all the confidence in the world with Brett Bielema as the defensive coach (Sporting News ranked him as the best up and coming HEAD-coach in the Big 10, Big 12 fans know how good he was at Kansas State).

-The kicking game will be better with Taylor Melhaff replacing Mike Allen as the team's full-time placekicker. Ken DeBauche is a good punter who'll get a little bit of All-Big Ten consideration.

So what about Bowling Green?

Most people will point to an offense that will score almost every time and led by a Heisman dark horse in Omar Jacobs. You also cannot forget about P.J. Pope and the WR’s in Charles Sharon and Steve Sanders. How will Wisconsin be able to stop all that? Well a good offensive game by Brian Calhoun will limit how often OJ will have the ball for BG. Wisconsin’s best defense will be clock control by pounding the ball of offense. Some people might point out how Wisconsin struggles to open the season against inferior teams. It’s my opinion that Bowling Green is NOT inferior and the Badger players understand that as well. They’ll be treating this game just like it were a Big 10 game and will come out on top at home. I have to love the line movement working in my favor on this one. Wisconsin will win by a td.
PLAY:
$50 Wisconsin -2.5
Ball State at Iowa -39
I would like to make a play on Ball State +39, but I’m not really sure how much Iowa will want to cover that huge spread. I could see them winning for sure in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, but is a 6 td win too much to ask for? As the first game of the season I feel that it is. I know Iowa could easily cover this spread if they wanted to, but I feel that they’ll call off the dogs in this one. My only hope is the 2nd and 3rd teams of Iowa don’t beat up on Ball State’s 1st team. One stat that I really like is the betting public is correct when moving the money line in BALL ST games 75% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-5). Another thing I may look at is going on Iowa -20 1st half, as I’m pretty sure they’ll be up 3 td’s early.
Play:
$50 Ball State +39
$50 Iowa -20 1st Half (Still debating)

Miami-Ohio at Ohio State -13.5
Call it Big 10 bias, but Ohio State is going to be too good this year not to win this game by 2 td’s. I feel that that Miami (Oh) will give a run for most of the game, but a Tedd Ginn kick/punt return or an untimely Josh Bett’s interception will prove to be the doom in this game. Toss in also the players for Miami having a new coach, and I look for them to be flat coming out in their first game.
Play:
$50 Ohio State (Waiting to call in as I want JumpOnBoard’s opinion)

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh -3
Why is Notre Dame only a 3 point dog? They’re not very good outside of Quinn. This is definitely an NFL AFC East match-up, and I’ll take ol’ Davy boy as coach as the better new coach in this game. With Palko returning and 18 total starters Pittsburgh should win the Big East again. They’ll get off to a good start against Notre Dame.
Play:
$100 Pittsburgh -3

Boston College -3.5 at BYU
Um okay… What am I missing in this game? Boston College is returning a ton of players and should destroy BYU. I know BYU likes to pull off upsets in the first game of the year, but I think that is just a coincidence.
$150 Boston College -3 (POD $195 to win $150)

Other games I’m still unsure of: These would all be for $50 (my minimum), and are dependant on how many games I coattail.
UAB +23
Colorado State +7.5
Boise State +7
Clemson +1.5
Hawaii +34.5 (same reason as Ball State)
Could use some help with those added games in the dirty south; there are enough of you hicks out there that can help me out! Hehe – I can only imagine the response I’ll get to that statement.

Sunday 9/4
Virginia Tech -4 is the only thing that stands out to me as of right now.

Monday 9/5
How can you not like COLLEGE Monday night football!!!!!
Memphis -2.5 is looking good
I’ll be putting something on Florida State/Miami but it will be a coattail of someone else.

Recap:
I am buying points on some of these as stated in the writeups…

$50 Buffalo +18
$100 Oregon -7 POD
$75 Minnesota -14

$200 Utah -7 POD
$50 Indiana -7

$50 Wisconsin -2.5
$50 Ball State +39
$50 Indiana 1st Half -20 (POSSIBLE)
$50 Ohio State -13.5
$100 Pittsburgh -3
$150 Boston College -3 POD
$50 UAB +23 (POSSIBLE)
$50 Colorado State +7.5 (POSSIBLE)
$50 Boise State +7 (POSSIBLE)
$50 Clemson +1.5 (POSSIBLE)
$50 Hawaii +34.5 (POSSIBLE)

$50 Virginia Tech -4 (POSSIBLE)

$50 Memphis -2.5 (POSSIBLE)

I will be adding more games as I read through other people’s opinions and will coattail possibly a few sides and some totals.

Best of luck this week and good luck on the season!!!

[naught33]

wow tons of plays, gotta love it! haven't done a whole lot of cfb capping myself but that is what today is for! i definately do like the play on buffalo, i know a lot of guys on uconn, but i told them all the same things you pointed out....they were quick to tell me the scores of the last 3 games they had played against each other but those were w orlovsky at qb....his replacement might be good, but itll take him time to develop, and defensively fincher is gone also...buffalo played some good football last yr and should keep this close

[Happy928]

Fondy, you predicted UTAH to win by the score margin of 24-17? Then ,why are you playing them bro? U got them at (-7) and hoping for a push?

[C Boswell]

Originally Posted by Happy928

Fondy, you predicted UTAH to win by the score margin of 24-17? Then ,why are you playing them bro? U got them at (-7) and hoping for a push?

Happy,

fondy means Utah will win by 17-24 pts.

[C Boswell]

whats up fondy.

Tarheel Brn&Bred here.

love ur play on Pitt as ND can't compete with much right now.

Iowa -20 1st half play may be the best play of the day. they'll hang 28 in the 1st quarter alone. period. 41-0 at the half.

[Tommy]

Thanks for the writeups Fondy BOL brother

[fondybadger]

Hey Tarheel, glad to see you got your account up and running over here. Think until BTB gets back up this will be the only place I'll be posting. Covers just pissed me off by deleting a few of my responses to people. Got an email from one of the mods telling me I'm close to being banned. I figured I was safe not bringing up btb over there and just putting my email in if anyone had any questions on things that I talked to over there. Well an f'in mod there asked me where CollegeKingRex posts (in an email to me) and I told him, and that's what is getting me close to being banned. It's a f'in joke. Hence why I'm done posting picks there.

Anyways, spread the word tarhell about getting some of the old guys around here. I'll post something in our fantasy baseball league as well.

[fondybadger]

happy - Chris is right where I'm predicting Utah to win by 17 to 24 points over Arizona.

[naught33]

hey fondy, we are glad to have you back here and posting....post all the picks you want, we love the posts and writeups, and look fwd to winning with you....bring all the cappers over here you want!

[fondybadger]

Thursday 9/1 Final Card
$50 Buffalo +18
$100 Oregon -7 ($140 to win $100)
$75 Minnesota -15 (buy to 14)
$50 S. Carolina -21
I couldn't lay off of this game. I know a lot of individuals I respect are going on the other side, but it's blowout time imo.

Coattails
$50 Vanderbilt +8 (CKR & Denfulks)
$50 Eastern Michigan +10 (Big Al & Denfulks)

[naught33]

i had buffalo too, they are getting worked, fuck.....lots of ppl on minny, might tail you on this one, GL w the rest bro

[Happy928]

Originally Posted by fondybadger

happy - Chris is right where I'm predicting Utah to win by 17 to 24 points over Arizona.

oh..thanks man! geez, my hooked on phonics still hasn't arrived yet

Love your ANALYSIS!!!!!! good work bro........

[naught33]

we took it in the ass w buffalo bro...nice hit on oregon....minny looks strong right now too

[fondybadger]

Final Friday Card:
$200 Utah -7 (POD)
$50 Indiana -7 ($75 to win $50)
$50 Indiana -7 ($55 to win $50)
$10 Utah/Arizona UNDER 44 (Yep a fatty 10 spot) - Coattail

$50 Parlay to win $34
Indiana ML
Utah ML

[Tommy]

BOL Today Nick

[naught33]

GL tonight man, i parlayed the MLs tonight like i told you earlier, see you did also, lets get that tonight