[Tommy]

College Football Tuesday

November 3, 2009

Bowling Green @ Buffalo 7:00 ET

Current Odds: Buffalo -3 | Total 55½

Underdog covered four of last five Bowling Green-Buffalo games, with Falcons winning four of last five, including last two visits to Buffalo by 20-14 points.

Bowling Green is just 3-5 but won its last two road tilts, at Kent State/Ball State. Three of their four road games stayed under the total.

Buffalo lost five of last seven games, losing last game in OT; dogs covered their last three games. MAC home favorites are 9-6 vs spread.

[Tommy]

The Falcons look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 road games.

Bowling Green is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road.

Bowling Green is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road.

Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Bowling Green.

Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green.

BOWLING GREEN: 14-4 ATS in road games.

BUFFALO: 1-5 ATS off conference loss by 3pts or less.

Head-to-Head Series History

BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons.

BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons.

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

[Tommy]

Rob Vinciletti

The Falcons are 6-1 ATS on th eroad vs less than .500 teams and have home loss revenge from a 40-34 loss last year.

They did win here two years ago as a small dog 31-17. Buffalo is not nearly as good as they were last year and have struggled on defense.

Look for Bowling green to get the cover here tonight and maybe win outright.

Pick: Bowling Green +3½ (-120) at 5Dimes.

[Tommy]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Bowling Green (3-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-5, 3-4 ATS)

Two teams coming off losses to Michigan schools get together for a Mid-American Conference East Division showdown, as the Falcons visit Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.

Bowling Green followed up a pair of conference road wins over Kent State (36-35) and Ball State (31-17) with a 24-10 home loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 24, failing to cover as a 9½-point underdog. The Falcons are just 2-5 SU and ATS since a season-opening 17-point rout of Troy, and they’re 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this season.

The Bulls took Western Michigan to overtime on Oct. 24, falling 34-31 to snap a modest two-game win streak, though they covered as a 5½-point road underdog. Like Bowling Green, Buffalo opened the season with a victory (23-17 at UTEP as a 10½-point ‘dog), but since then it has dropped five of seven, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against Division I-A competition. Buffalo is 2-2 (2-1 ATS) at home.

Two of the last three meetings between these schools have gone into overtime, including last year’s matchup at Bowling Green, which Buffalo won 40-34 as a 4½-point road underdog. The Bulls trailed 14-0 and 27-7 but battled back and scored the tying touchdown with 37 seconds left, then prevailed in double-overtime to end a four-game SU losing streak to Bowling Green. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, with the underdog covering in all four contests and the road team going 3-0 ATS in the last three.

Bowling Green has scored 20 points or less in four of its games (going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS) and 31 points or more in its other four games (going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS). Behind quality QB Tyler Sheehan (2,677 passing yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs), the Falcons are averaging 406.5 total yards per game (341.4 passing ypg). Defensively, Bowling Green surrenders 28.4 ppg, yielding 24 or more in five of eight games, and the Falcons are getting out-rushed by an average of 149 ypg (214-65).

After scoring only 93 points in their first five contests (18.6 per game) – tallying 23 or less four times – the Bulls have scored 92 in their last three (30.7 ppg). They roll up 411 total yards of offense per game, including 149.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), but the defense gives up 25.6 points and 353 total ypg (150 rushing ypg). The Bulls have yielded 33.6 ppg in their five defeats compared with just 12.3 ppg in their three wins.

Bowling Green is on positive ATS runs of 9-2 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 in November, 7-3 against losing teams and 7-3 after a non-cover. However, in addition to going 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, the Falcons have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 after a bye, four of five on Tuesday and four straight following an outright loss.

The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against opponents with a losing record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November outings, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 0-5 as a favorite (all at home) and 1-5-1 after a bye.

The Falcons have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests and four of five after a bye, but Bowling Green also carries “under” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-4 in MAC action, 6-1 on the road, 9-1 as an underdog and 7-0 as a road pup. Buffalo has stayed low in four of its last five at home, but the over is 7-3 in its last 10 MAC games and 5-2 in its last seven in November. Finally, the under has cashed in all three Falcons-Bulls meetings in Buffalo this decade.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

[Tommy]

Lang is on Bowling Green, Magic, Mavs and Thunder.

[Tommy]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.

Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and nine TD's.

It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.

On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.

The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.

It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.

Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.

As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season!

*9* BOWLING GREEN.

[Tommy]

BG has one of the worst defenses I've ever seen. Pathetic.