11-03-2009, 02:18 PM
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Sportscapper Island
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Bowling Green (3-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Two teams coming off losses to Michigan schools get together for a Mid-American Conference East Division showdown, as the Falcons visit Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Bowling Green followed up a pair of conference road wins over Kent State (36-35) and Ball State (31-17) with a 24-10 home loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 24, failing to cover as a 9½-point underdog. The Falcons are just 2-5 SU and ATS since a season-opening 17-point rout of Troy, and they’re 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this season.
The Bulls took Western Michigan to overtime on Oct. 24, falling 34-31 to snap a modest two-game win streak, though they covered as a 5½-point road underdog. Like Bowling Green, Buffalo opened the season with a victory (23-17 at UTEP as a 10½-point ‘dog), but since then it has dropped five of seven, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against Division I-A competition. Buffalo is 2-2 (2-1 ATS) at home.
Two of the last three meetings between these schools have gone into overtime, including last year’s matchup at Bowling Green, which Buffalo won 40-34 as a 4½-point road underdog. The Bulls trailed 14-0 and 27-7 but battled back and scored the tying touchdown with 37 seconds left, then prevailed in double-overtime to end a four-game SU losing streak to Bowling Green. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, with the underdog covering in all four contests and the road team going 3-0 ATS in the last three.
Bowling Green has scored 20 points or less in four of its games (going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS) and 31 points or more in its other four games (going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS). Behind quality QB Tyler Sheehan (2,677 passing yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs), the Falcons are averaging 406.5 total yards per game (341.4 passing ypg). Defensively, Bowling Green surrenders 28.4 ppg, yielding 24 or more in five of eight games, and the Falcons are getting out-rushed by an average of 149 ypg (214-65).
After scoring only 93 points in their first five contests (18.6 per game) – tallying 23 or less four times – the Bulls have scored 92 in their last three (30.7 ppg). They roll up 411 total yards of offense per game, including 149.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), but the defense gives up 25.6 points and 353 total ypg (150 rushing ypg). The Bulls have yielded 33.6 ppg in their five defeats compared with just 12.3 ppg in their three wins.
Bowling Green is on positive ATS runs of 9-2 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 in November, 7-3 against losing teams and 7-3 after a non-cover. However, in addition to going 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, the Falcons have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 after a bye, four of five on Tuesday and four straight following an outright loss.
The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against opponents with a losing record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November outings, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 0-5 as a favorite (all at home) and 1-5-1 after a bye.
The Falcons have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests and four of five after a bye, but Bowling Green also carries “under” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-4 in MAC action, 6-1 on the road, 9-1 as an underdog and 7-0 as a road pup. Buffalo has stayed low in four of its last five at home, but the over is 7-3 in its last 10 MAC games and 5-2 in its last seven in November. Finally, the under has cashed in all three Falcons-Bulls meetings in Buffalo this decade.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER