NCAA FOOTBALL MATCHUPS

Tommy · 09-06-05, 01:46 PM

NCAA FOOTBALL MATCHUPS

Tommy · 09-09-05, 11:00 PM

What does everyone use to Handicap the games?

Tommy · 09-09-05, 11:01 PM

This is the best in the Biz IMO Take a look

Also the matchups link at the top of the forum is also pretty good

QuickNick · 12-20-05, 08:03 PM

I use alot of things average points scored, defensive points given up, Injuries, I look for teams that are just playing BAD or GOOD and look to see if there is any friction on teams like the mess the Eagles had this year!!!Turnovers are a HUGH part of capping and I like to use TRENDS after I have completely capped a game, to see if they have any that are in my favor, it is just icing on the cake. But, NEVER use just TRENDS to cap with!!!

nekbug · 09-03-06, 05:27 PM

Use a variety of sources for a variety of purposes, but the process is always the same.

1. Who is going to win. While it may seem strange to say, my experience is that most if not all degenerate gamblers run into trouble right here. Because they're always looking for the big score, or at the very least something bigger than chalk, they will ignore the obvious. Example, Louisville is going to beat Kentucky this evening. With a +23 line only the truly deranged likely to lay bet on ML taking Kentucky. So if Kentucky isn't going to win their logic turns to well they keep it close, less than 24. Trouble with this logic is the margin between 21 and 23.5 is a FG and if a team is capable of putting up a 3 TD margin I don't like the odds that on the 4th trip down they settle for a FG and my money.

Not to say I dont or wont bet dogs but when i take a dog its because i can see them winning straight up and am using pts as a hedge.

2. Once i have a line on who should win i'll begin to look for reasons why they may not hold true to form. Injuries, suspensions, philosophy matchups, weather. These come from a variety of readily available media sources.

3. Finally i'll plug in any trends I find relevant to particular game. Heads up records may or may not be of any relevance. I dont put much stock in them if teams rarely meet. Say Duke's 0-4 against Toledo all time but two havent played one another in 15 yrs, what benefit is it to me. ATS can also be meaningless at times. One rule of thumb i use is a new coach starts with a fresh slate. But there's a qualifier as always, teams with new head coachs generally take longer to round into form.

Finally i agree with u Big that above link is a good source for alot of the grunt work of matchups. I also recommend that people find a good database for other historical numbers S fox misses.

Tommy · 09-04-06, 11:54 AM

Very well said Nek and I couldn't agree with you more. I use the same strategy. Matter of fact, I always look at the matchup before looking at the lines, then try to pick winners, then look at the lines and try to dig up any value I can find. I use alot of sources when capping a game, especially if I throw down a substancial amount. I feel you cannot get enough information, everything helps but at the same time you shouldn't really overwhelm yourself to think one way and let a silly thing change your mind. Everything you look at should be counted as a weight factor.

09-06-05, 01:46 PM	#1 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Ncaa Football Matchups NCAA FOOTBALL MATCHUPS Last edited by Tommy : 08-04-06 at 06:32 PM.
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09-09-05, 11:00 PM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	What does everyone use to Handicap the games?
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09-09-05, 11:01 PM	#3 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	This is the best in the Biz IMO Take a look Also the matchups link at the top of the forum is also pretty good
Status: Offline

12-20-05, 08:03 PM	#4 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	I use alot of things average points scored, defensive points given up, Injuries, I look for teams that are just playing BAD or GOOD and look to see if there is any friction on teams like the mess the Eagles had this year!!!Turnovers are a HUGH part of capping and I like to use TRENDS after I have completely capped a game, to see if they have any that are in my favor, it is just icing on the cake. But, NEVER use just TRENDS to cap with!!! __________________ Nick
Status: Offline

09-03-06, 05:27 PM	#5 (permalink)
nekbug SCI Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: toronto ontario Posts: 396	Use a variety of sources for a variety of purposes, but the process is always the same. 1. Who is going to win. While it may seem strange to say, my experience is that most if not all degenerate gamblers run into trouble right here. Because they're always looking for the big score, or at the very least something bigger than chalk, they will ignore the obvious. Example, Louisville is going to beat Kentucky this evening. With a +23 line only the truly deranged likely to lay bet on ML taking Kentucky. So if Kentucky isn't going to win their logic turns to well they keep it close, less than 24. Trouble with this logic is the margin between 21 and 23.5 is a FG and if a team is capable of putting up a 3 TD margin I don't like the odds that on the 4th trip down they settle for a FG and my money. Not to say I dont or wont bet dogs but when i take a dog its because i can see them winning straight up and am using pts as a hedge. 2. Once i have a line on who should win i'll begin to look for reasons why they may not hold true to form. Injuries, suspensions, philosophy matchups, weather. These come from a variety of readily available media sources. 3. Finally i'll plug in any trends I find relevant to particular game. Heads up records may or may not be of any relevance. I dont put much stock in them if teams rarely meet. Say Duke's 0-4 against Toledo all time but two havent played one another in 15 yrs, what benefit is it to me. ATS can also be meaningless at times. One rule of thumb i use is a new coach starts with a fresh slate. But there's a qualifier as always, teams with new head coachs generally take longer to round into form. Finally i agree with u Big that above link is a good source for alot of the grunt work of matchups. I also recommend that people find a good database for other historical numbers S fox misses. __________________ there's a fine line between heaven and hell, this morning it's 2.5
Status: Offline

09-04-06, 11:54 AM	#6 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Very well said Nek and I couldn't agree with you more. I use the same strategy. Matter of fact, I always look at the matchup before looking at the lines, then try to pick winners, then look at the lines and try to dig up any value I can find. I use alot of sources when capping a game, especially if I throw down a substancial amount. I feel you cannot get enough information, everything helps but at the same time you shouldn't really overwhelm yourself to think one way and let a silly thing change your mind. Everything you look at should be counted as a weight factor.
Status: Offline