[fondybadger]

I apologize to everyone for not having this thread up earlier, I just got carried away today with MNF and other things going on... This first message was originally typed up over the course of the day Monday and posted on a different site.

2005 Records
Sides..........16-15-2 -$425
1st Half........4-1 +$145
Totals..........0-0 +$0
Parlays.........1-0 +$34
TOTAL........21-16-2 -$246

2005 Records (coattails)
Sides...........4-3 +$12
1st Half….....1-0 +$75
Totals.........1-1 -$5
TOTAL.........6-4 +$82

YTD TOTAL 27-20-2 -$164

POD RECORD 2-4 -$442 (Included above)

Plays and discussions...

Thursday Night
Utah -2.5 against TCU -- TCU beat Oklahoma but as we saw last week that just inflated the expectations a bit too much. TCU is not as good as they played against Oklahoma and not quite as bad as they played against SMU. Utah is 2-0, but have yet to cover a spread... I lean towards Utah, but it is their first game on the road, and TCU is playing at home for the first time this season. Look for the crowd to factor in this game early, but I see Utah winning again. Lean Utah...

Friday Night
Houston at UTEP -12 -- Was going to play this game early on UTEP, but didn't pull the trigger. Line has already moved from 10 to 13 and back down to 12. I liked Houston to start the season, but there struggles against Oregon and their so-so play against Sam Houston have turned me away from them. UTEP seems to be going in the right direction. This is a no play for me as of now. Would appreciate thoughts on this game, as I would like to care about this game as I'm sitting at the bars drinking.

Saturday Games
Virginia -9.5 at Syracuse
Syracuse really struggled in their first game on offense against W. Virginia. This past week they were able to get some points on the board against lowly Buffalo, but in the long run that should build some confidence. The dome is one of the few places where I can't see the home team getting a ton of points. Virginia came out the first week and didn't really impress against W. Michigan, a team they should have beat by a ton. Although come game time Virginia will have had two weeks to work out their game plan. Syracuse should be too good at home, with the amount of players that have experience to get beat be double digits. Buying to -10...
PLAY: $75 Syracuse +10

Oregon State at Louisville -13.5 -- I'd like to have the balls to go on Louisville in this game, but I'm gun shy right now after week one. Oregon State has not impressed me much so far this season. Boise State is still a solid team, but I figured Oregon State would have been more like sharks circling a bloody carcass. Louisville should have the offense to put this game away early, but until I see them do it I can't waste more money on them.

E. Michigan at Michigan -30 -- You'd assume Michigan will come out with something to prove in this game. They were an embarrassment last week against Notre Dame. It was also an embarrassment for me making them my POD and wasting $220 on them. I might make Michigan a first half play and buy it down to -14 ($70 to win $50) but I'm not sure of the value in that right now. I don't know E. Michigan well enough to make any concrete decisions. Please share your thoughts on E. Michigan.

West Virginia at Maryland -5.5
I might be giving too much credit to W. Virginia and how they played at Syracuse, but there defense was solid and I see the same thing again against Maryland. West Virginia has the road experience, and Maryland showed last week home field advantage didn't matter too much.
PLAY: $50 West Virginia +5.5

SMU at Texas Tech -28 -- This line is right about where it should be. Was hoping it would be closer to TT -20 or so, but it wasn't the case, so it will be a no play.

Mississippi at Vanderbilt -3.5 -- Well Miss. played a hell of a game against Memphis and cost me a decent chunk of change, so I'd like to recoup some of that in this game. Vandy has played decent to start the year on the road winning at Arkansas and Wake Forest. Have to see how the line continues to move in this game. If it gets to -2.5 or so, I'll put in a small play on Vandy.

Toledo -30 at Temple -- I was going to jump on this game when it came out at -28, but Toledo has only played the sisters of the poor so far this year. Both games were also at home. It's hard to lay 5 scores on a team making its first trip on the road for the year, even after watching how pathetic Temple played its first two weeks. The one thing I can say about Temple is the kids didnt' give up. I see Toledo winning this game, by around 3 tds, but I can't go on Temple after they've been outscored 128-16 so far this year.

C. Michigan at Penn State -23.5 -- I don't think Penn State has the killer instincts to take it to C. Michigan. CMU has been playing strong this year winning on the road at Miami-Ohio. Indiana will be a bit better than advertised, and Penn State will self explode here pretty soon. Games right around where it should be.

Ball State at Auburn -37 --Ball State was able to score against Bowling Green, but I think a JV Highschool team could score against them. This game with this line is a coin flip. I didn't think Iowa would blow them out like they did either, but like that game I may take Auburn in the first half. Lean Auburn first half.

Baylor -5 at Army -- Baylor scares the hell out of me to make a play on, although it looks like the way to go. No play

East Carolina at Wake Forest -13 -- I can't get a handle on WF this year. I could see them coming out in this game and blowing out E. Carolina, but I have no clue...

Florida State at Boston College -1 -- Florida State really was sleeping in the first half against Citadel and if they want to win against BC, they can't be doing that. This game is giong to be close, but I'll give this one to Bowden. Want to read up on what other people think on this game, but I like FSU.

Michigan State at Notre Dame -6.5
I'm probably shooting myself in the foot here with this game, but I'll say I believe in Notre Dame finally. I guess I should after they've killed me the last two weeks with plays on Pitt and Michigan. What more is there to say on this game except that ND has played well this season and they should be able to cover a td against MSU. If Notre Dame can hold on to the ball and not turn things over, while continuing to create turnovers, this should be a winnder. I don't like how the road team has won the last few games in this series, but I'll take my chances.
PLAY: $100 Notre Dame -6.5

Plays:
$75 Syracuse +10
$50 W. Virginia +5.5
$100 Notre Dame -6.5

Leans:
Utah -2.5
Michigan 1st Half -14 (-140 juice)
Vanderbilt (if it gets to -2.5 or less)
Auburn 1st Half -19
FSU +1

OTHER EARLY PLAYS:
$75 UConn +17
$50 Miami -6

I'd like to get some discussion going on the following games:
Oklahoma at UCLA -7.5
Pittsburgh at Nebraska -10.5
I feel that both of the above road teams might have a few surprises this week. If Oklahoma beat TCU, they'd be around a 7 point favorite at UCLA. Might be some good value on them. I've played Pitt the first two weeks and lost, so maybe I have blinders on when thinking about them.

Alabama -2.5 at S. Carolina
Spurrier is getting too much credit? Alabama has more talent...

Wisconsin -3 at UNC
Wisconsin has a tendency to lose a game they shouldn't every year in non-conference. First road game for the young defense after having there way against Temple. Offense hasn't been challenged at all this year as Calhoun rushed for 250 yards his first game and was pulled midway through the FIRST quarter against Temple. If Wisconsin gets behind early against a solid defense, they might have some trouble coming back. I was also suprised at how well UNC played at Georgia Tech last week. I don't know the team that well, so I'd like to hear if their effort last week can be expected all year, or if it was a mirage. Another thought is Wisconsin might be looking ahead to week four and their Big 10 opener playing Michigan.

San Diego St. at Ohio State -27.5 -- I'd look towards Ohio State coming out and looking to beat somebody up after their loss against Texas. SDST got beat by 21 at UCLA and Ohio State shouldn't give up 21 points to SDST. My concern in this game is that Ohio State players are going to be let down about having almost no shot at winning a national title. With as many upperclassmen that play an important role, I don't see that happening. Still a no play for me.

Ohio at Virginia Tech -34 -- The Mac has really struggled this year, but this Ohio team might just have a bit more confidence in themselves after beating Pittsburgh. In week one they get beat by Northwestern by 24, and then beat Pitt... tough to read how they'll come out this week. Virginia trounced Duke this past week, and I'd think they would cover. Too many question marks for me to make it a play though.

Idaho at Washington -13.5 -- I'm kind of surprised that so many individuals like Idaho. Sure Washington has been an embarrassment this year, but we're still talking about Idaho! This is a no play for me, I won't coattail it, and frankly I don't really care about too many teams up there in the Northwest.

Miami-Ohio -5.5 at Kent St. -- It's shocking how fast Miami-Ohio has fallen in the first two weeks of the season. It's unexcusable that they lost this past week to CMU, but they should turn things around. Still with how they've played I can't make them a play when they're on the road as a favorite.

Illinois at California -21 -- Illinois has played tough so far this year, winning a game they shouldn't have, and taking care of business in week two. California should have their way with them, espcially if how they beat up on Washington is any indication. This is a game I want to look a bit more at, but I have no real thoughts right now.

Rutgers -21 at Buffalo -- I feel that the right side to go on this one is Buffalo, because they're finally at home and how Rutgers struggled on the road at Illinois. I lost enough money on BUffalo in week 1 though, so I'll stay away for the time being.

Kentucky at Indiana -2.5 -- I wish I would have gotten in on this game when it was at +5 Kentucky. Indiana has beaten up on some weak teams so far, and Kentucky held tough against Louisville. I think the wrong team is the favorite in this one. Want to do a bit more reading on what others think in this game. I'm especially interested in what Rexy thinks about good ol' Kentucky. STRONG LEAN Kentucky +3 (I'll buy that half point back).

C. Florida at S. Florida -9.5 -- I have nothing on this game... If Culpepper was playing in this one, I might, but other than that... EEK...

Wisconsin -3 at UNC -- I'll have a longer writeup on this game in a bit later. I already have a play in on this one, but I plan on going ALOT bigger. Want to see what others think on this game first. Anyone going to support UNC?

UConn at Georgia Tech -17
I'll start by why I don't like UCONN. They haven't played anyone this year and it's their first road game which are both big hits against them. The reason I like them is that some of their guys who didn't have a lot of experience to start the year have gotten their feet wet in the weak game action. GT just doesn't seem to have the offense to run up the score by at least 3 TD's...
PLAY: $75 UCONN +17

Rice at Texas -40
This is a game I initially missed when I put in plays earlier. I don't know if Texas will win this game by 40 points, but after Rice got blown out by UCLA and how explosive Texas is, I need to make a first half play. I'm a bit concerned that Texas will be hungover from their win, but this play just fits too well with the numbers.
PLAY: $50 Texas 1st Half -20.5

Fresno State at Oregon -2.5 -- I'll once again admit I don't know my west coast teams too well, but this line confuses me. Oregon has played pretty well to start the season and Fresno State hasn't played a real college team this year. With Oregon playing at home against a smaller conference team, I don't see why a person wouldn't take Oregon here. On another not this game reminds me of the Bowling Green/Wisconsin game LEAN Oregon -2.5

Louisiana Tech at Kansas -14
I'm going to ride some of the board on this one and take Kansas. Power numbers on this game show Kansas as a 21 point favorite as well.
PLAY: $50 Kansas -14

Wyoming at Air Force -2 -- I don't really have any concrete thoughts on this game, but Wyoming has some numbers pointing towards them. This game I'm just going to stay away from.

Tennessee at Florida -6 -- I don't think I'm the best person to give a breakdown of this game, but I do know if Tennessee gets to be a 6.5 or 7 point dog I'm all over them. LEAN: Tennessee +7 (if it gets there, or I decide to buy it to there).

Mississippi St -2 vs. Tulane -- I feel as if Mississippi is the play just because of the psychological toll that Tulane has faced. Anyone have an idea where this game is being played? Lean: Miss. State -2

Purdue -7.5 at Arizona -- If the line keeps moving towards Arizona I'll be all over Purdue. Purdue is going to be a solid team this year, and Arizona is still a year away. LEAN: Purdue -7

Northwestern at Arizona State -15.5 -- Might have put a play in on ASU if I would have worked my way down the card before the line moved off of -14. I see Arizona State winning this game by 14-21... No play for me...

Arkansas at USC -30.5 -- I think Arkansas is too talented to get completely blown out in this game. Late start time and the willingness to run up the score will play a role. Might also look at Arkansas +16 at the half. Lean: Arkansas +30.5

Plays:
$50 Texas 1st Half -20.5
$50 Kansas -14

Leans:
Kentucky +2.5 (will buy back up to +3)
Oregon -2.5
Tennessee +6 (Want it at +7)
Miss. State -2
Purdue -7 (If it gets moving towards Arizona)
Arkansas +30.5

I'll get to the Added Games later in the week, but some promising games are:
Troy State, Akron, and Minnesota


Alright I tried playing devil's advocate here earlier and not be the homer, but this is how I see the Wisky game shaping up.

Wisconsin can control the game on the ground like they have all season so far. Brian Calhoun is the best RB Wisconsin has had in a few years and should continue to tear up teams. He's got sprinter speed and can outrun anyone. With Matt Bernstein in at FB and Booker "jailbird" Stanley as the backup RB to pound things the Wisconsin offense should be able to pound the ball and tire out UNC's defense.

Last week John Stocco showed he can make the right reads and was very efficient moving the ball down the field, albeit against Temple. Owen Daniels had three TD's from the TE position and is one of the premier TE's in college football IMO. Last year he first switched from QB to TE, and this year he's better with his routes. The WR's are very experienced because three years ago as freshmen they had to fill in for Lee Evans when he went down with his leg injury. A forgetten component about Wisky's back field is that both Stanley and Calhoun, not to mention Bernstein can really catch the ball out of the backfield. UCN having an extremely weak defense so far this year shouldn't be a problem for Wisconsin's offense.

On defense junior Joe Stellmacher moved ahead of Johnny White at strong safety and freshman Allen Langford replaced senior Levonne Rowan as the starting cornerback. The Badgers also promoted freshman Shane Carter to nickel back. I feel that the seniors got a start in the first game, now the better players are in there on defense. Another change Bret Bielema (d-cordinator and future coach) made to the secondary was the use of three cornerbacks in the team's base defense - the 4-3-4 - in passing situations. Our two true freshmen that are starting on defense have got two games under there belt and are doing damn fine if you ask me.

Another interesting thing that I read in Sunday's paper is that, "Alvarez doesn't believe his players will look past the Tar Heels toward the Big Ten opener and insists he is comfortable with the pace of UW's progression through two weeks."

My feel of this game is if Wisconsin holds on to the ball and creates pressure up front that they will win by double digits.

I have a $100 Wisconsin -3... Looking at putting more on, but want to play devil's advocate here a bit and not be bias.

[Tommy]

Nice writeups Fondy Im liking ND this week also. BOL Bro Bring home the cash on all of them

[naught33]

Fondy...am still looking at the card as we speak, but two games you asked about were okla/ucla, and pitt/neb

as far as okla/ucla..i really like okla in this spot..ucla is always an underachieving team, sure they have drew, lewis, and even olsen at qb is good, but their defense is mediocre and to be favored by 7.5, wow...i know okla has issues on both sides of the ball but no way would i ever give them 7.5 points...stoops has to be relishing this opportunity, i don't believe his team has been that much of an underdog since he has been the HC? I think okla wins this game SU and if they lose they certainly keep it close. They won't have to throw very much because i don't see the ucla d stopping AP. OKLA on d should load up the box and force olsen to beat them down the field, which sometimes he is erratic and maybe they can force a few turnovers, this should be a close game at the worst, but i think okla wins and def covers.

pitt/neb...this game has stay away all over it....neb looked good against wf last week, surprisingly, while pitt has looked horrible in its 1st 2 games...palko hasnt even looked like a hs qb let alone the big east player of the yr....my inclination here though would be to take the points...you know it is only a matter of time until pitt gets it going on offense, and neb really isnt that great and i wouldnt feel comfy laying 10.5 to anyone w them....that being said if palko plays like he did against ohio this could be a 31-0 neb win, so i wouldn't touch it, just IMO

[Tommy]

Very Nice Today Fondy