Week 5 College Football - Plays/Thoughts/Discussions

fondybadger · 09-25-05, 09:00 PM

I combined a couple posts from another site into one... Best of luck this week everyone...

Week 4 Recap: 13-17-1 -$387 (43% correct)

2005 Records
Sides............31-30-5 -$573
1st Half.........13-2 +$640
Totals...........0-0 +$0
Parlays.........1-0 +$34
TOTAL..........45-32-5 +$101

2005 Records (coattails)
Sides.............7-6 +$22
1st Half…......1-0 +$75
Totals............4-3 +$8
TOTAL..........12-9 +$105

YTD TOTAL 57-41-5 +$206 (58% correct)

POD RECORD 3-4-2 -$292 (Included above)

It wasn't the week that I was hoping for at all, but it wasn't as bad as it could have been as USC covered and I got a push out of W. Michigan. Wisconsin won so that was great, even though I lost $55 on it. Got some early lines last week, but none of them really paid off. I went 4-7 I believe on those and those that won would have won on the closing lines. In fact if I would have waited last week, I would have probably pushed on Florida instead of losing that one. Going to take things slower this week. Most opening lines I really don't like, but there are some big games that have numbers I like.

Early Plays:
$75 Pittsburgh pk
$50 UConn -9
$75 Minnesota +1.5
$100 USC -14 (-120)
$50 California -16.5
$50 Notre Dame +3.5
$50 Kansas State +7 (-60)
$75 Louisville 1st Half -19.5

Some of these plays I may end up buying out of with further discussions. These plays have been made on FACE VALUE alone. I like the lines on the games, and feel they might go away from what I like so I pulled the trigger. I wish I would have bought myself out of Michigan last week when I found out that Mike Hart wasn't playing, and the line movement on Memphis should have scared me off.

Syracuse at Florida State -21
Syracuse appears to have put their offense together a bit. Max or other Syracuse supporters what are your thoughts on this three TD spread? Rexy I know likes to follow Florida State as well. I'm thinking 3 TD's might be an okay play on Cuse... Haven't watched enough FSU though this year either. Line has already moved from +20 to +21 for FSU... If I took it I'd want minimum +21 Syracuse...

Michigan at Michigan State -4
I'm still not sold on Michigan State... Depending on if Mike Hart is playing, anything more than 3 I'd give solid consideration to Michigan. They were the better team in my opinion against Wisconsin last night. Michigan State rolled it up on Illinois, but rivalry game here. Another unanswered question is at 2-2 has Michigan given up on themselves now?

Just refreshed my lines page, and there is some huge line-movements that I don't understand... Would appreciate thoughts on reasons why...

Oklahoma State went from a 1 point favorite at home to a 2.5 dog to Colorado... Den you have any thoughts on this game? OSU at home +3 looks mighty good if you ask me???

Navy went from a 4.5 favorite to a 6 point favorite at Duke... Anyone want to hop on the Duke train?

I like Kent State as a dog if their QB isn't too injured and can play this week.

UNLV seems to be getting bet heavy on... Wyoming went from a 17 point fav to a 14.5 favorite and there are questions on UNLV's QB... Wyoming at 14 a trigger puller?

Minny is a 2 point favorite already... Doesn't surprise me too much after the past games this week.

USC up to a 17 point favorite. Arizona State is a good team at home, but Northwestern was right in it for awhile. You can't bet against USC, but can you afford to bet on them in this situation?

UCLA line dropped down to -21 from -23.5 against Washington... Washington hasn't impressed me too much so far, and UCLA is dominate at home...

Bowling Green opened as a 28.5 favorite at Temple... Anyone want to touch that one? As much as it pains me I like Bowling Green... there defense should even be able to stop Temple. And Temple has no chance in hell to stop Omar Jacobs... First half at -14 (Have to buy it from -15) would look a pretty good play.

South Florida getting too much or not enough respect against Miami after destroying Louisville? I'd say too much and with the line down -20.5 now, Miami might be a play.

South Carolina getting some action only an -11 dog now... Can Auburn win by DD's at home?

Va Tech game stands out as something I might play...

Same with the Baylor/Texas A&M game.

09-25-05, 09:00 PM	#1 (permalink)
fondybadger SCI Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Madison Wisconsin Posts: 445	Week 5 College Football - Plays/Thoughts/Discussions I combined a couple posts from another site into one... Best of luck this week everyone... Week 4 Recap: 13-17-1 -$387 (43% correct) 2005 Records Sides............31-30-5 -$573 1st Half.........13-2 +$640 Totals...........0-0 +$0 Parlays.........1-0 +$34 TOTAL..........45-32-5 +$101 2005 Records (coattails) Sides.............7-6 +$22 1st Half…......1-0 +$75 Totals............4-3 +$8 TOTAL..........12-9 +$105 YTD TOTAL 57-41-5 +$206 (58% correct) POD RECORD 3-4-2 -$292 (Included above) It wasn't the week that I was hoping for at all, but it wasn't as bad as it could have been as USC covered and I got a push out of W. Michigan. Wisconsin won so that was great, even though I lost $55 on it. Got some early lines last week, but none of them really paid off. I went 4-7 I believe on those and those that won would have won on the closing lines. In fact if I would have waited last week, I would have probably pushed on Florida instead of losing that one. Going to take things slower this week. Most opening lines I really don't like, but there are some big games that have numbers I like. Early Plays: $75 Pittsburgh pk $50 UConn -9 $75 Minnesota +1.5 $100 USC -14 (-120) $50 California -16.5 $50 Notre Dame +3.5 $50 Kansas State +7 (-60) $75 Louisville 1st Half -19.5 Some of these plays I may end up buying out of with further discussions. These plays have been made on FACE VALUE alone. I like the lines on the games, and feel they might go away from what I like so I pulled the trigger. I wish I would have bought myself out of Michigan last week when I found out that Mike Hart wasn't playing, and the line movement on Memphis should have scared me off. Syracuse at Florida State -21 Syracuse appears to have put their offense together a bit. Max or other Syracuse supporters what are your thoughts on this three TD spread? Rexy I know likes to follow Florida State as well. I'm thinking 3 TD's might be an okay play on Cuse... Haven't watched enough FSU though this year either. Line has already moved from +20 to +21 for FSU... If I took it I'd want minimum +21 Syracuse... Michigan at Michigan State -4 I'm still not sold on Michigan State... Depending on if Mike Hart is playing, anything more than 3 I'd give solid consideration to Michigan. They were the better team in my opinion against Wisconsin last night. Michigan State rolled it up on Illinois, but rivalry game here. Another unanswered question is at 2-2 has Michigan given up on themselves now? Just refreshed my lines page, and there is some huge line-movements that I don't understand... Would appreciate thoughts on reasons why... Oklahoma State went from a 1 point favorite at home to a 2.5 dog to Colorado... Den you have any thoughts on this game? OSU at home +3 looks mighty good if you ask me??? Navy went from a 4.5 favorite to a 6 point favorite at Duke... Anyone want to hop on the Duke train? I like Kent State as a dog if their QB isn't too injured and can play this week. UNLV seems to be getting bet heavy on... Wyoming went from a 17 point fav to a 14.5 favorite and there are questions on UNLV's QB... Wyoming at 14 a trigger puller? Minny is a 2 point favorite already... Doesn't surprise me too much after the past games this week. USC up to a 17 point favorite. Arizona State is a good team at home, but Northwestern was right in it for awhile. You can't bet against USC, but can you afford to bet on them in this situation? UCLA line dropped down to -21 from -23.5 against Washington... Washington hasn't impressed me too much so far, and UCLA is dominate at home... Bowling Green opened as a 28.5 favorite at Temple... Anyone want to touch that one? As much as it pains me I like Bowling Green... there defense should even be able to stop Temple. And Temple has no chance in hell to stop Omar Jacobs... First half at -14 (Have to buy it from -15) would look a pretty good play. South Florida getting too much or not enough respect against Miami after destroying Louisville? I'd say too much and with the line down -20.5 now, Miami might be a play. South Carolina getting some action only an -11 dog now... Can Auburn win by DD's at home? Va Tech game stands out as something I might play... Same with the Baylor/Texas A&M game.
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