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| | Saturday 9-18 (Week 3) Odds, Picks and Trends
College Football Saturday - Week 3
September 18, 2010
(12) Arkansas @ Georgia 12:00 ET
Odds: Georgia -2 | Total 53½
LY, Georgia (+2) won 52-41 at Arkansas, as suspect QB Cox averaged over 20 yards a completion; Murray is upgrade at QB for Dawgs in '10, but star WR Green is still suspended. Georgia is 12-20-1 as home fave since '04; they were outgained by 101 yards last week in Columbia, with Dawgs getting outrushed 189-61. Arkansas has Alabama coming to town next week; they're 4-4 as road dog under Petrino, 1-8 SU on foreign soil.
Connecticut @ Temple 12:00 ET
Odds: Connecticut -6 | Total 49
Temple was booted out of Big East to make room for UConn; Owls lost in OT in last series meeting (12-9, +6 in '08). UConn is 9-3 as road fave since '02, 17-10 vs spread in non-league games. Temple is 7-2-1 as home dog under Golden; they won first two games in dramatic fashion, and do not think they'll look past team that pushed them out of a BCS league. Big East teams are now 1-8-1 vs spread in non-conference games.
San Diego State @ Missouri 7:00 ET
Odds: Missouri -16 | Total 57½
San Diego State is 2-0 for first time since '94; they're 9-13-1 as road dog since '06, 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 non-league games. Mountain West underdogs are 1-4 vs spread in non-league games; Big 12 home favorites are 7-5. Missouri is just 2-6 vs spread as home favorite since '08, but is 14-7 vs spread in last 21 non-league games. Aztecs ran for 244 yards in 41-21 win last week, passed for 319 more, offsetting 106 penalty yards.
BYU @ Florida State 3:30 ET
Odds: Florida St. -10 | Total 60
Florida State (+8) crushed BYU 54-28 LY, running ball for 313 yards in game where FSU was +5 in turnovers; Seminoles are just 7-18 as home favorite since '05, but are 12-8 vs spread in game following last 20 losses. BYU is 0-3 as road dog since '07, losing by 10-25-24 points; they lost at Air Force last week, giving up 409 rushing yards- this is third tough foe in row for Cougar squad that can't decide which quarterback to play.
(8) Nebraska @ Washington 3:30 ET
Odds: Nebraska -3 | Total 52
Washington is 4-1 as home underdog under Sarkisian; Huskies were up only 13-10 at half vs Syracuse last week before pulling away late- they have big edge in experience at QB, as this is first road start for Martinez, a very mobile QB. Cornhuskers are 4-2 in last six games as road favorite, are 8-2 in non-league games under Pelini. Favorites are 8-3 vs spread in Pac-10's non-league games so far (Pac-10 clubs 1-3 as the dog).
Clemson @ (16) Auburn 7:00 ET
Odds: Auburn -7½ | Total 54½
Clemson coach Swinney went to Alabama, so ending Clemson's 13-game skid vs Auburn would be doubly sweet; Clemson is 7-2 as road underdog since '05, but just 4-8 vs spread in last 12 non-league games. Auburn is in SEC sandwich (South Carolina next week); they start four OL seniors, are 8-15 as home favorite since '06. Teams last met in '07, when Auburn (+2) beat Clemson 23-20 in OT in Chick-fil-A Bowl.
(6) Texas @ Texas Tech 8:00 ET
Odds: Texas -3½ | Total 51
Average total in last five Texas-Texas Tech games is 73.4, but with both sides leaning more to run, score will be lower here, on 56th birthday for new Tech coach Tuberville. Senior QB for Tech, while soph Gilbert is making first start in hostile territory. Longhorns are 6-4 in last 10 games as road favorite, Tech is 5-1 as recent home dog. Texas starts 4 seniors on offensive line, Red Raiders start three sophomores.
Mississippi State @ (15) LSU 7:00 ET
Odds: LSU -7½ | Total 44½
LSU is 17-1 last 18 games vs Mississippi State, winning last 10 games, but Bulldogs were stopped on 1-yard line with 1:08 left in LY's 30-26 home loss to Tigers, as Mullen has MSU on right track. Bulldogs are 2-2 as road dog under Mullen (12-19-1 in last 32 games before him). LSU is 11-19-1 as home favorite under Miles; they outgained Vandy 392-135 in methodical 27-10 road win in conference opener last week.
Fresno State @ Utah State 8:00 ET
Odds: Fresno St. -3½ | Total 58½
Home side won seven of last eight Fresno-Utah State games; Bulldogs won last visit here 30-28 (-15.5- long FG on last play), won last three series games by 11-2-4 points (underdog covered last five series games). Utah State went to Norman, outgained Sooners 442-441, so they've got talent, and QB with 23 career starts. Aggies are 15-5 vs spread in last 20 games as a dog. Could Fresno be looking ahead to Ole Miss next week?
Notre Dame @ Michigan State 8:00 ET
Odds: Michigan St. -3½ | Total 53½
Visitor is 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine Notre Dame-Michigan State games; with average total in last five, 60.0. Three of last five series games were decided by exactly 3 points. Spartans are just 16-27-1 as home favorite since '01; they've run ball for 297-225 yards in winning first two games this year. Irish were 9-6 as road dog under Weis; Kelly's Cincinnati and Central Michigan clubs were 10-5-1 as a road underdog.
(9) Iowa @ (24) Arizona 10:30 ET
Odds: Arizona -1 | Total 46
Iowa (-3) held Arizona to 8 first downs in 27-17 home win LY, but that was just before Foles became Wildcats' starting QB; Arizona is 9-1-1 as home underdog since '05, 20-10-1 vs spread in last 31 games as the dog. Iowa is 8-1 vs spread last nine road games, but hasn't won game west of Rockies since '87 (first trip west in six years). 12,000 Iowa fans going to this game. Big 11 teams are 5-3-1 as non-conference fave, 0-1-1 on road.
(23) Houston @ UCLA 10:30 ET
Odds: Houston -4 | Total 64½
UCLA gave up 66 points in losing its first two games and was booed at home in last game (35-0 loss to Stanford); now Bruins are home dog to a team from Conference USA. Bruins were 0-3 as home dog LY, after 11-2 run as home dog from '02-'08. UCLA is 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games out of Pac-10. Houston is 1-8 as road favorite under Sumlin (home team is 16-2 vs spread in Cougar games since he became Houston's coach).
Wake Forest @ (19) Stanford 11:15 ET
Odds: Stanford -17½ | Total 59
Stanford plays Notre Dame next week, better not look past Wake Forest squad that was down 17-3 at half LY, rallied to beat Cardinal 24-17 in game where Wake outrushed Stanford 251-115. Deacons are 2-5 as road underdog since '07, after being 17-7 in previous 24 tries. Stanford is 13-5 as home favorite since '02, 7-3 under Harbaugh- they crushed UCLA in Rose Bowl last week 35-0. If not for revenge, this would be trap game.