SportscapperIsland.com Site MapAdd BookmarkContact Us

Go Back   Sports Betting Forum > Sports Gambling Picks, Handicapping and Betting Discussions > College Football Betting
User Name
Password   Join
Register FAQ Parlay Calculator Sports Scores Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

NBA Betting at Skybook
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 10-02-05, 08:53 PM   #1 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default Week 6 College Football - Plays/Thoughts/Discussions

PLEASE don't be afraid to chime in with your thoughts. Any information you can provide, I'll be grateful for.

Not sure what I'm doing wrong picking my big winners each week. I only went 7-4 on bets of $75 and over, but go 18-5 on $50 plays... Splitting my POD for a loss of -13... Guess that's why I go on so many plays each week, because my favorites tend to lose, while my leans win. Just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I thought at first I had won $757 this week, but I had a $10 adding error, which just is funny because that would be the second out of the last three weeks I had won that exact amount. I'm 17-3 on my first half plays and I'm going to continue to focus on those plays.

Week 5 Recap: 25-9-1 +$747 (74% correct)

2005 Records
Sides............46-36-6 -$273
1st Half.........17-3 +$757
Totals...........3-0 +$275
Parlays.........1-0 +$34
TOTAL..........67-39-5 +$793

2005 Records (coattails)
Sides.............10-8 +$102
1st Half…......1-0 +$75
Totals............5-3 +$58
TOTAL..........16-11 +$235

YTD TOTAL 83-50-6 +$1028 (63% correct)


POD RECORD 4-5-2 -$305 (Included above)

Early Line Plays:
$150 Wisconsin -6 (HIT IT HARD)
$75 Wisconsin 1st Half -3 (-90)
$75 Boston College -5.5
$50 Pittsburgh 1st Half -7
$100 LSU 1st Half -7 (-120)
$50 Texas 1st Half -7 (-60)
$50 Virginia Tech 1st Half -17
$75 Florida 1st Half -13.5

I'll be back with write-ups on these games and other game thoughts soon... Told SoonerBS I'm going to take it easy on early line plays this week. Every game I've won with early lines so far, I'd have won on the closing lines. For example, I had no business being on Kansas State this past week and wouldn't have been if I'd have waited until Friday to put in a play on that game. As you can see I went only on two full game sides. Took a lot of first half lines that I felt were good teams that had football type scores that should be covered or at least push.
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 01:37 AM   #2 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default Tuesday Night

Troy State at N. Texas -2
We all know both of these teams don't really care about their non-conference schedule. North Texas coach even said if we go undefeated we're still going to the same bowl game (Think that was the New Orleans Bowl). Neither team has played very well at all this preseason but made some serious cash for their athletic departments. Their conference schedules get off with a bang as whoever wins this game should be conference champions. Last year these two teams did not play each other, so they're both going to want to prove something here. It has been generally assumed that North Texas is the better team. Thus them playing at home I thought the opening number of -3.5 was very appropriate. The line movement the opposite way surprises me quite a bit. About the only other thing I know about these two teams are that North Texas has been passing a lot early in the season because teams were stacking up stopping the Nation's last two leading rushers. I feel that N. Texas freshmen QB got the experience he needed in the first few games but they will revert to rushing more in this game. As both teams didn't play teams close to them in terms of talent this year there really isn't too many numbers that one can point to.

A line of -3 or under I'd lean towards North Texas, anything higher I'd probably stay off the game.


Lean: Nort Texas -2
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 01:38 AM   #3 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default Wednesday Night

Miami-Ohio at Northern Illinois -3
I feel that that Miami with Betts, their stud Wr's, a steady run game, great offensive line and an experienced defense should be able to contain N. Illinois offense and put up points against a below average defense. I quoted a ton of names before and stats and season schedule, but the key is Miami Ohio has been playing well the last few weeks and are getting things going after a rough start, while NI keeps finding a way to lose the game. Northern Illinois needs to prove that they can win. I also looked at this site to see what kind of talent these two teams have. http://story.foxsports.scout.com/a....37012&refid=400 I'll look forward to what you mac guys have to say about this game.

LEAN: Miami-Ohio +3
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 01:38 AM   #4 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoonerBS
Fondy, you're a Big Ten guy, tell me your thoughts on Minny/Mich this week. Michigan is coming off a BIG emotional win and Minny off their first loss of the season in a game that was never close.

Even though this game is being played at Michigan, it's being played on artificial turf. I think that is important for a running team like Minny. Remember, they lost on the grass turf at Penn State. Michigan should suffer a bit of "let down" here -- and screw the fact that this is homecoming here, that doesn't mean shit to college players.

We can get +7.5 on Minny right now and that looks like a good play to me.


Minnesota at Michigan -7.5
The last two years Minnesota has played Michigan TOUGH and has taken the game down to the wire only to lose by 3 points after leading most of the game. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Minnesota was undefeated at the time of both games. After they lost to Michigan their seasons went down the tube. I really feel that after their first loss each season that some of the playes including Laurence Maroney don't approach the games with as much intensity. I'll say that all starts with Glen Mason and the rest of the coaches. Minnesota had to go to overtime to beat Purdue on turf and got blown out by Penn State. Maroney is knicked up and was "After the game, a Minnesta official said Maroney wasn't available to talk to reporters because he was "getting treatment," though he did not specify what he was getting treatment for."" The article where it says that can be found here... http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamRe...ype=InsideSlant You have to also remember he isn't use to this work load after splitting carries with Marion Barber III last year and could be getting worn down. Michigan is still a top team in the Big 10 and people are forgetting they were a top 5 team. Now that MIke Hart is back I expect them to return to top 5 or 10 form, because Henne won't have the pressure of carrying the offense and can get back to his role.

Coach Carr this week on having Mike Hart back
"Well Hart is, you know, the heart of our team. We kept trying to take him out of there and he kept going back in. I think if you measure our football team, Hart is a guy his teammates love because when he is in there on passing downs, he is blocking people that are 60 or 70 pounds bigger. He's got a great instinct and he is just such a fighter. I said this last week…I did not expect him to play, or certainly to run the football as many times as he did. He is a great football player."

LEAN: Michigan -7 (I hope it gets to that and I'll buy it down if it is close come gameday)

Thus, Denny I wouldn't recommend a play on Minny. Although, I'm not a person who plays games on emotions and let downs as much as some other people do. I don't put a lot of stock in that, although I should do it more so.
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 01:38 AM   #5 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default

Most of the capping tools I use aren't available to me until Monday afternoons, thus I'm going to call it a night on writeups. If someone would like a take on a game please post something early in the week as I'm either leaving Thursday night or Friday morning to go to Chicago for the Badger game. I almost am afraid to go with the streak JumpOnBoard is on because I don't want to miss his NFL plays with the 18-2 streak on sides he's on this season. Hopefully his plays will be posted by Thursday.

My Leans - With no indepth analysis:
Georgia Tech -4.5
Indiana -6
Texas -14
Iowa State -9
Arizona +36.5 (Prolly won't play)
Iowa +6
UAB -21
Louisiana Tech -5
Louisville -11.5
Ohio State -3
Arizona State -9
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 08:40 AM   #6 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default Power Rankings

Call me crazy or call me stupid (cus I'm probably both), but I felt I'd try something a bit different this week and something for my own amusement. I'm going to attempt to pick a winner of each and every side on the card. I'm going to put them in order of how much I like each and everyone of them and see how my thoughts change throughout the week.

The number before the team is the listing it is on the card for easy reference. If a pick changes sides throughout the course of a week I will underline it (for example if I change my pick from Wisconsin -6 to Northwestern +6 I will underline it). I will also list picks that have changed categories closer to a play in blue and those that drop down in my estimation in red. Obviously in a first list there would not be any of these circumstances.

There is a total of 52 games this week... During a given week I tend to play 20-30 games, but 12 or so of those plays are the same game just taking the halftime and full game plays. For the time being I tried to break them into five categories with about 10 games in each category. If the games were today, the plays would be for $75-$200, leans would be $50-$75, and some good guesses might be played for $50. Plays are listed from my favorite to the games I don't have a clue about (meaning I don't know either team or the game is just to hard to tell) being at the end. Submitted Plays - Amount of play in blue.

Plays
387 Ohio State -3 (This pains me - PSU OVERRATED)
$150 313 Wisconsin -7 (Still want to see injury reports)
329 LSU -14.5 (Finally have a chance to beat up on inferior opponent - buy hook)
398 Arizona State -9 (I love betting them)
322 Pittsburgh -13 (I like to be rejected)
306 Georgia Tech -4.5 (As Cornholio said GT dominates NCST)
359 Iowa +5
338 Michigan -7.5 (buy hook)
386 Louisville -11.5
372 UAB -21 (potent offense)
$75 316 Boston College -7 (Line movement lost some luster)

Leans
335 Maryland -27 (they're playing Temple for christ sakes)
302 North Texas -2 (Tuesday Night Game)
303 Miami (oh) +3 (Wednesday Night Game)
311 West Virginia -11
328 South Carolina -12.5 (Depends on health of QB)
310 Indiana -6 (They showed me a lot against Wisky-Illinois a joke)
352 Tennessee -3
326 Kansas State -6.5
334 Texas -14 (If it goes above 14 not interested)
373 Utah +4
349 Arizona +36.5 (Going against USC might suicide)

Good Guess
344 Iowa State -9 (Baylor can't have two good weeks in a row)
370 Viriginia Tech -35
320 Miami -35
356 Colorado -3.5
366 Washington State -13
361 Memphis -3
402 Arkansas -24

Hunch
400 UCLA -2
308 UConn -5.5
346 Wyoming -6
368 Nebraska +4
381 Mississippi State +28
324 Oklahoma State +5.5
317 Wake Forest +20
348 UNLV +8
392 Southern Miss -12
394 Utah State -4.5
354 Bowling Green -22.5

Shot in the Dark
434 Louisiana Lafeyette -6.5
380 Toledo -21
383 Houston -1.5
341 Air Force +1
363 Rice +5.5
389 BYU +7.5
396 New Mexico State +26.5
332 Army +1
357 Idaho +10
339 Akron -12.5
376 Louisiana Tech -5
378 Western Michigan -10

I'll probably update this on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday or as I feel appropriate based on my readings and responses in this thread.
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 08:54 AM   #7 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
fondybadger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Madison Wisconsin
Posts: 445
Default

Originally Posted by fondybadger
Quote:
what is your thoughst on ohio state -3 at penn state?
I think facing Young will help OSU prepare for Robinson with similar scheme wise...I don't think PSU can run it on us, but I'm not sure if we'll be able to run it on them either....they haven't faced anybody nearly as physical as us, and I think that will be big advantage in second half for us, esp with the week extra...


Only thing that bothers me is OSU troubles off bye weeks under tressel last few years...last year we lost at NW off bye week in OT, two years ago we lost 17-10 at Camp Randle off bye week....both games were ESPN primetime games too...


But honestly, we have a senior class that is going to be ready man...I think PSU is good, but I think they're too young to win this game vs our experience...we will pound on em, and keep pounding on em all night...I think we'll wear em down..

~JumpOnBoard


I see a 23-13 score or something similar....
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 02:16 PM   #8 (permalink)
SCI Forum Moderator
 
naught33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Scarsdale, NY
Posts: 13,666
Default

very nice work here fondy, love the analysis...youre a monster when it comes to this, love it! wont get to my capping until tomorrow, but i do have to say i love the north texas line...i know the mean green have struggled this yr but they still have jamarrio who is due to have a huge game and i dont think troy can stop him...at home take ntexas, but id agree if it goes higher than 3 prob a no play for me...ill comment on some other games later in the week
__________________
-naught33

"You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky

"No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 07:36 PM   #9 (permalink)
Now go get your shinebox
 
Tommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Sportscapper Island
Posts: 15,068
Default

yeah Thanks for all the great info Nick BOL this week

Last edited by Tommy : 10-03-05 at 07:36 PM.
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-05, 08:37 PM   #10 (permalink)
SCI Veteran Member
 
Eaglesfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 2,054
Default

GOT NORTH TEXAS -1 FOR TOMMOROW LINE WILL GO UP
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-04-05, 07:31 PM   #11 (permalink)
SCI Senior Member
 
QuickNick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 9,637
Default

PLEASE don't be afraid to chime in with your thoughts. Any information you can provide, I'll be grateful for.

Not sure what I'm doing wrong picking my big winners each week. I only went 7-4 on bets of $75 and over, but go 18-5 on $50 plays... Splitting my POD for a loss of -13... Guess that's why I go on so many plays each week, because my favorites tend to lose, while my leans win.
++++++++++++++++++

Fondy, you know how to beat this????? Bet the same amount on every play and you are covered!!!
__________________
Nick
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-05, 01:11 PM   #12 (permalink)
SCI Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 14
Default

good looks fodiggity, i like nc st in this spot. i like amato on the road and i think its a fg gm here. i'll check back later been busy as hell
__________________
THE USUAL SUSPECT


NFL 2005-06
TOTALS
SIDES
PARLAYS
TEASERS




i will start fresh because no one can verify my record from my home forum.
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-05, 07:24 PM   #13 (permalink)
SCI Forum Moderator
 
naught33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Scarsdale, NY
Posts: 13,666
Default

tough loss w ntex last night, too many turnovers....i dont like the nill/mia game, dont have a good feel for it, watching nill lose to akron makes it tough for me to back them here but mia oh has been a disappointment so far so who knows, GL
__________________
-naught33

"You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky

"No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline
 
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Where the lines are made! 20% free play bonus with initial deposit of $300 or more. Bet at Bookmaker!
20% sign-up bonus. Bet on football sides and totals. 10% back on losses. Loyalty program. Visit Diamond!
50% free play bonus on first deposit! Dime lines for baseball. Free half-point on football. Join Skybook!
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2008, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
SEO by vBSEO 3.1.0 ©2007, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright ©2005 - 2007 Sports Betting Forums at Sportscapper Island