Friday Night UTEP vs. Tulane - A MUST READ

fondybadger · 10-14-05, 11:00 AM

UTEP -6.5 vs Tulane
(Ruston, La - LA Tech home field)
Game Total 53.5

Tulane obviously does not have any home games this year due to Hurricane Katrina. This is the 5th stadium they've played in five games, but this is the closest they'll get to being home all year. The Tulane football team has been enrolled as "visiting students" at LA Tech, so they should be getting comfortable with the campus and should have a home field advantage without having to worry about travel arrangements.

Both teams are coming off a loss and look to rebound in this game. Two weeks ago UTEP lost a heartbreaker to a severely beat up Memphis team 27-20. While this past weekend Tulane was thoroughly stomped by Houston 35-14. This is the first time these two programs have ever met on the gridiron, so there is very little in way of past history to look at. The best place to start breaking down this game is how well both teams have played up to this point this year.

UTEP has gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (they've been the favorite in every contest). They have covered against New Mexico and at New Mexico State but failed to cover against Houston and at Memphis.

Tulane is 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. They lost to Miss. St as a 3 point dog by 7, beat a streaky SMU team by 21 as a 2.5 point favorite, won by 7 against what I believe is a D2 school in SE Louisiana, and lost to Houston by 21 as a three point dog.

The only common opponent to both teams this year has been Houston. UTEP won by 3 points at home as a 12 point favorite while Tulane lost by 21 at a neutral site.

Looking at Tulane's team they have struggled on the offensive side of the ball. They're averaging around 21 points a game, but only 7 in the first half. There team tries to grind things out, as they have an enemic 4.1 yards per play. They're rushing yards are disappinting at 95 yards a game and ONLY 2.7 yards per carry. This shouldn't be the case as they return two players with significant experience in Matt Forte and Jovon Jackson who both put up solid numbers last year. Tulane is completing its passes at a 52% clip this season, but only are getting 5.2 yards an attempt. There leading receiver is junior Preston Brown, who before this season had never caught a pass. He hass 22 receptions for 240 yards (both team highs).

Tulane also struggles on special teams as their startign place kicker has battled injuries. There walk-on back up is 10 for 11 in extra points but has only converted one field goal.

Tulane's defense has been the heart and soul of the team to this point. They're ranked 12th in the nation overall, even after giving up 440 yards to Houston. I'll attribute there high marks on defense not to just talent but their weak schedule to this point.

UTEP has been rolling up the yards this year averaging more than 400 yards a game. Most of their yards come through the air as Jordan Palmer has been a steady force at the helm spreading the wealth around to receivers Francies, Boyd and Higgins. The rushing attack could use a little work as they struggle to move the ball on the ground.

Reagan Schneider the kicker for UTEP gives them a strong advantage on special teams. So far this year he is 5-5 on field goal attempts of 40 yards or more and 13-16 in his career. Johnnie Lee Higgins is 28th in the nation in punt return yardage with 11.5 yards per return.

The defense has struggled somewhat this year in allowing completions, but have held their own against the big plays. The Miners are tied for fifth in the country with 16 sacks this season, and as Tulane is more of a passing team I see this playing into UTEP's hands. UTEP has also already registered nine interceptions this season which ties them for 11th in the nation.

UTEP ranks 106th out of 117 Division I-A teams on third down conversions this season... on the other hand, UTEP is 39th nationally on third down conversion defense.

In the last game against Memphis UTEP pretty much beat themselves. They turned the ball over six times including four turnovers inside Memphis 25 yard line. It was the most turnovers they've committed since Mike Price has been coach, and I see the coaching staff really stressing the importance of hanging on to the ball during their bye week.

A few other notes about the two teams
UTEP has trailed at the half its previous three games.
UTEP is scoring 12 points in the 1st half and giving up 8
Tulane is scoring 7 points in the 1st half and giving up less than 2

It is my belief that this game will be somewhat low scoring as UTEP will settle for field goals instead of risking turnovers on big plays for touch downs. It is my belief that Tulanes defensive stats are based on who they have played, but they do have some talent that will continue to cause UTEP to struggle to convert on 3rd downs. I do not feel that Tulane will get their offense on track today, and it will be a rather boring game to watch.

My prediction: UTEP 30 - Tulane 14 (Half 13-7)

PLAYS:
$100 UTEP -6 (-120)
$50 UTEP/Tulane 1st Half UNDER 28 (-60)
$75 UTEP/Tulane UNDER 53.5

naught33 · 10-14-05, 12:16 PM

Fondy, are UTEPs top 2 wideouts missing for this game?

fondybadger · 10-14-05, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naught33

Fondy, are UTEPs top 2 wideouts missing for this game?

Didn't get a chance to update this yet... I'll prolly buy back my utep play...
INJURY NEWS:
UTEP PLAYERS
DE Mineo out for season with an ankle injury - Only one who I knew that was out, but I didn't realize he had 6 of their sacks and a majority of the TFL's at DT position.
QB J. Palmer has 3 seperated ribs and is probable - He's the team leader and prolly will play, but not 100%
WR C. Francis has a rib injury and is doubtfull - had a 100 yards receiving the previous game
RB T. Ebell hip listed as doubtfull - He's had like 80% of their carries and is their stud running back. They have pulled the redshirt out off of a former parade All-American though who has 50 yards on 11 carries. I look for him to get more playing time tonight.
DE Riley back and doubtfull - Front 4 look pretty banged up...

Just want to thank getliquid and the boys at sportsdegenerate for pointing this out to me and to Rex for confirming the injuries. Anyone have a good spot to find lists of injury news for college?

I still have all of the same plays, but I'm seriously considering hitting the UNDER harder, and buying back the UTEP play.

Tommy · 10-14-05, 12:53 PM

Oh, Good stuff Nick (Fondy)

Thanks for all of this. BOL TONIGHT!

10-14-05, 11:00 AM	#1 (permalink)
fondybadger SCI Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Madison Wisconsin Posts: 445	Friday Night UTEP vs. Tulane - A MUST READ UTEP -6.5 vs Tulane (Ruston, La - LA Tech home field) Game Total 53.5 Tulane obviously does not have any home games this year due to Hurricane Katrina. This is the 5th stadium they've played in five games, but this is the closest they'll get to being home all year. The Tulane football team has been enrolled as "visiting students" at LA Tech, so they should be getting comfortable with the campus and should have a home field advantage without having to worry about travel arrangements. Both teams are coming off a loss and look to rebound in this game. Two weeks ago UTEP lost a heartbreaker to a severely beat up Memphis team 27-20. While this past weekend Tulane was thoroughly stomped by Houston 35-14. This is the first time these two programs have ever met on the gridiron, so there is very little in way of past history to look at. The best place to start breaking down this game is how well both teams have played up to this point this year. UTEP has gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (they've been the favorite in every contest). They have covered against New Mexico and at New Mexico State but failed to cover against Houston and at Memphis. Tulane is 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. They lost to Miss. St as a 3 point dog by 7, beat a streaky SMU team by 21 as a 2.5 point favorite, won by 7 against what I believe is a D2 school in SE Louisiana, and lost to Houston by 21 as a three point dog. The only common opponent to both teams this year has been Houston. UTEP won by 3 points at home as a 12 point favorite while Tulane lost by 21 at a neutral site. Looking at Tulane's team they have struggled on the offensive side of the ball. They're averaging around 21 points a game, but only 7 in the first half. There team tries to grind things out, as they have an enemic 4.1 yards per play. They're rushing yards are disappinting at 95 yards a game and ONLY 2.7 yards per carry. This shouldn't be the case as they return two players with significant experience in Matt Forte and Jovon Jackson who both put up solid numbers last year. Tulane is completing its passes at a 52% clip this season, but only are getting 5.2 yards an attempt. There leading receiver is junior Preston Brown, who before this season had never caught a pass. He hass 22 receptions for 240 yards (both team highs). Tulane also struggles on special teams as their startign place kicker has battled injuries. There walk-on back up is 10 for 11 in extra points but has only converted one field goal. Tulane's defense has been the heart and soul of the team to this point. They're ranked 12th in the nation overall, even after giving up 440 yards to Houston. I'll attribute there high marks on defense not to just talent but their weak schedule to this point. UTEP has been rolling up the yards this year averaging more than 400 yards a game. Most of their yards come through the air as Jordan Palmer has been a steady force at the helm spreading the wealth around to receivers Francies, Boyd and Higgins. The rushing attack could use a little work as they struggle to move the ball on the ground. Reagan Schneider the kicker for UTEP gives them a strong advantage on special teams. So far this year he is 5-5 on field goal attempts of 40 yards or more and 13-16 in his career. Johnnie Lee Higgins is 28th in the nation in punt return yardage with 11.5 yards per return. The defense has struggled somewhat this year in allowing completions, but have held their own against the big plays. The Miners are tied for fifth in the country with 16 sacks this season, and as Tulane is more of a passing team I see this playing into UTEP's hands. UTEP has also already registered nine interceptions this season which ties them for 11th in the nation. UTEP ranks 106th out of 117 Division I-A teams on third down conversions this season... on the other hand, UTEP is 39th nationally on third down conversion defense. In the last game against Memphis UTEP pretty much beat themselves. They turned the ball over six times including four turnovers inside Memphis 25 yard line. It was the most turnovers they've committed since Mike Price has been coach, and I see the coaching staff really stressing the importance of hanging on to the ball during their bye week. A few other notes about the two teams UTEP has trailed at the half its previous three games. UTEP is scoring 12 points in the 1st half and giving up 8 Tulane is scoring 7 points in the 1st half and giving up less than 2 It is my belief that this game will be somewhat low scoring as UTEP will settle for field goals instead of risking turnovers on big plays for touch downs. It is my belief that Tulanes defensive stats are based on who they have played, but they do have some talent that will continue to cause UTEP to struggle to convert on 3rd downs. I do not feel that Tulane will get their offense on track today, and it will be a rather boring game to watch. My prediction: UTEP 30 - Tulane 14 (Half 13-7) PLAYS: $100 UTEP -6 (-120) $50 UTEP/Tulane 1st Half UNDER 28 (-60) $75 UTEP/Tulane UNDER 53.5
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10-14-05, 12:16 PM	#2 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	Fondy, are UTEPs top 2 wideouts missing for this game? __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
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10-14-05, 12:53 PM	#4 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Oh, Good stuff Nick (Fondy) Thanks for all of this. BOL TONIGHT! Last edited by Tommy : 10-14-05 at 12:53 PM.
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