$$$ Wigington's Thursday NCAA Pick $$$

Wigington · 10-25-05, 04:14 AM

Ok this is my first pick of the week. Lets see how we do!

Boston College vs Virginia Tech

BC Off Avg = 28.3 ppg
Opp Def Avg = 27.35 ppg
BC Outperforms = .95ppg

BC Def Avg = 14.0 ppg
Opp Off Avg = 24.47 ppg
BC Outperforms - 10.47 ppg

Boston College Composite Performance = 11.42 ppg

VT Off Avg = 37.7 ppg
Opp Def Avg = 25.5 ppg
VT Outperforms = 12.2ppg

VT Def Avg = 9.0 ppg
Opp Off Avg = 21.45 pp
VT Outperforms = -12.45 ppg

Virginia Tech Composite Performance = 24.65ppg

Last 4 years at Home

2002 7/8
2003 6/7
2004 6/7
2005 3/3

VT has won 22/25 of their home games in the last 4 years.
This equates to an 88% win at home.

>90% = 5 pts
70-90% = 4 pts
55-70% = 3 pts
40-55% = 2 pts
25-40% = 1 pt
0-25% = 0 pts

VT gets 4 points raising their edge from 13.23 ppg to 17.23 ppg.

Virginia Tech -13

naught33 · 10-25-05, 08:49 AM

GL on the play man, from what ive seen from you so far ill be playing on VT as well...keep up the great capping bro

Wigington · 10-25-05, 01:46 PM

Let's do it! I advise anyone who wants to play VT grab it now!

Wigington · 10-25-05, 01:58 PM

Actually, lts wait maybe a day and see what the line does. I just see it going up from here though.

wahook · 10-25-05, 02:11 PM

Wigington,

How is this system working this year? I tried O pts vs D pts last year in the NFL and it didn't work out good for me. I am currently working on another system that is 60% right now in the NFL and am tweaking it every week. I am very interested in this b/c I do believe you can give yourself an added stastical advantage when picking games. (This is just a start though of many other factors) I use TO, Rush O, TOP, Off yds, 3rd Dwn Conv, 1st dn, home field, hot or not. I am also doing the equation on some NCAA games. (like the weekday games, too many weekend games) I have the line at VT-2, favoring BC.

GL

wahook

wahook · 10-25-05, 02:17 PM

I was reading just you post from last week. At least we were on the same side for the VT game on Thurs.

GL

wahook

Tommy · 10-25-05, 02:25 PM

Keep up the great picks bro BOL on VT on Thursday

wahook · 10-25-05, 02:31 PM

Wigington,

Just scrolling through your previous threads. You are doing very well with your system. May have to re-think mine. Yours works and I bet you spend much less time making your picks. Will be watching out for your posts!!!

GL

wahook

Wigington · 10-25-05, 02:44 PM

Wahook I went 9-2 this past week
The week before that I went 9-1

This includes NCCA & NFL

I am not going to guarantee winners, because I od not believe anyone can do that. For the past 2 weeks record stands at 18-3 whcih equates to an 85.7 winning percentage. So far so good. Do not want to toot my own horn so quick. This is a new week, hopefully I can do just as good. Follow me if ya like!

Wigington · 10-25-05, 03:41 PM

I do not just take the average off of a team and avg def of a team...I factor in home field advantage of the last 4 years. I also take into account everyone the team has played up to date as an average. If you need more insight I can break it down.

wahook · 10-25-05, 07:58 PM

I hope you have playing your picks. That's a lot of coin you could be winning. I have saved the numbers that I used last year. Off and Def pts per game broken down by week. I may, most likely will, go back and try to plug in your formula. I assume you use a excel program for your calculations.

If you have the time to break it down that would be helpful. thanks and GL

wahook

naught33 · 10-25-05, 08:29 PM

one thing is for sure wig, win, lose or draw ill be on your plays buddy! great job thusfar and look for more solid plays from you from here on out bro! thanks for sharing w all of us here

naught33 · 10-25-05, 08:32 PM

Wig,

do you have a database or spreadsheet or something you are using with your system? im just wondering how you do all of this?

Wigington · 10-25-05, 08:48 PM

Actually I do not use excel, even though that might be a good idea. Everything is done on paper.

Example:

Boston College avg 28.3 off 14.0 def
--------------------------------------------
Wk Forest 23.9 29.1
Virginia 25.3 21.6
Ball St 18.4 46.6
Clemson 27.3 21.1
Florida St 36.4 17.4
Army 14.0 27.3
BYU 26.0 28.4

OK, these are all of the teams Boston College has played so far this year. It shows the team averages of offensive and defensive points per game.

So Boston College avg 28.3ppg on offense
The average of every team that they have played this year of defensive points allowed is 27.35ppg
So Boston College outperforms on offense by .95ppg.

I do the same with the defense. Once you have the number for BC on the offensive and defensive side you add them together. This is BC's number So BC outperforms o noffensive by .95ppg and outperform on defensive by -10.47ppg/ Their composite performance is 11.42ppg.
Then do the exact same for the other team. Once you have factored in everything including home field points them subtract to see who has the edge. In the BC vs VT game on Thursday, VT's number is 28.65 and BC's number is 11.42 which makes the difference of 17.23ppg in favor of VT. The line is at 13 so it is in VT's favor.

Then I factor in the winning % of the home team for the last 4 years.
> 90% = 5 pts
70-90% = 4 pts
55-70% = 3 pts
40-55% = 2 pts
25-40% = 1 pt
0-25% = 0 pts

Hope this helps!

naught33 · 10-25-05, 09:42 PM

WOW thanks bro! you rock for sharing this info w me and the rest of us, i definately plan on using it and tracking it myself and seeing how it plays out, its been nothing but solid thusfar

wahook · 10-26-05, 09:31 AM

Thanks for sharing!!! I hope it works out and I will be coattailing this week.

GL

wahook

wahook · 10-26-05, 10:52 AM

Two last questions:

1. Do you take into account a good away team?

2. What is your "trigger" number for taking a game. Ex: Diff of +/-3, +/-4, ?

Thanks for helping,

wahook

Eaglesfan · 10-26-05, 12:43 PM

WIGINGTON YOU MIND PUTTING YOUR PLAY IN THE WAR ROOM OR IF I PUT IT IN

VT gets 4 points raising their edge from 13.23 ppg to 17.23 ppg.

Virginia Tech -13

Wigington · 10-26-05, 04:48 PM

Go ahead

Wigington · 10-27-05, 05:41 AM

Everyone has seen this system for tonights game when Boston College takes on Virginia Tech. I do like the play of VT -13, seeing how my system shows them as a 17 point fav, but that is awefully close to the line. I am thinking about teasing it just in case. Not that I do not have faith in my system, but it is close. I'd rather win with a little insurance than lose. Give me your thoughts guys, who are yall going with? Is anyone playing this game?

10-25-05, 04:14 AM	#1 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	$$$ Wigington's Thursday NCAA Pick $$$ Ok this is my first pick of the week. Lets see how we do! Boston College vs Virginia Tech BC Off Avg = 28.3 ppg Opp Def Avg = 27.35 ppg BC Outperforms = .95ppg BC Def Avg = 14.0 ppg Opp Off Avg = 24.47 ppg BC Outperforms - 10.47 ppg Boston College Composite Performance = 11.42 ppg VT Off Avg = 37.7 ppg Opp Def Avg = 25.5 ppg VT Outperforms = 12.2ppg VT Def Avg = 9.0 ppg Opp Off Avg = 21.45 pp VT Outperforms = -12.45 ppg Virginia Tech Composite Performance = 24.65ppg Last 4 years at Home 2002 7/8 2003 6/7 2004 6/7 2005 3/3 VT has won 22/25 of their home games in the last 4 years. This equates to an 88% win at home. >90% = 5 pts 70-90% = 4 pts 55-70% = 3 pts 40-55% = 2 pts 25-40% = 1 pt 0-25% = 0 pts VT gets 4 points raising their edge from 13.23 ppg to 17.23 ppg. Virginia Tech -13
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10-25-05, 08:49 AM	#2 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	GL on the play man, from what ive seen from you so far ill be playing on VT as well...keep up the great capping bro __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
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10-25-05, 01:46 PM	#3 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Let's do it! I advise anyone who wants to play VT grab it now!
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10-25-05, 01:58 PM	#4 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Actually, lts wait maybe a day and see what the line does. I just see it going up from here though.
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 02:11 PM	#5 (permalink)
wahook SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 44	Wigington, How is this system working this year? I tried O pts vs D pts last year in the NFL and it didn't work out good for me. I am currently working on another system that is 60% right now in the NFL and am tweaking it every week. I am very interested in this b/c I do believe you can give yourself an added stastical advantage when picking games. (This is just a start though of many other factors) I use TO, Rush O, TOP, Off yds, 3rd Dwn Conv, 1st dn, home field, hot or not. I am also doing the equation on some NCAA games. (like the weekday games, too many weekend games) I have the line at VT-2, favoring BC. GL wahook
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 02:17 PM	#6 (permalink)
wahook SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 44	I was reading just you post from last week. At least we were on the same side for the VT game on Thurs. GL wahook
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 02:25 PM	#7 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Keep up the great picks bro BOL on VT on Thursday
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10-25-05, 02:31 PM	#8 (permalink)
wahook SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 44	Wigington, Just scrolling through your previous threads. You are doing very well with your system. May have to re-think mine. Yours works and I bet you spend much less time making your picks. Will be watching out for your posts!!! GL wahook
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 02:44 PM	#9 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Wahook I went 9-2 this past week The week before that I went 9-1 This includes NCCA & NFL I am not going to guarantee winners, because I od not believe anyone can do that. For the past 2 weeks record stands at 18-3 whcih equates to an 85.7 winning percentage. So far so good. Do not want to toot my own horn so quick. This is a new week, hopefully I can do just as good. Follow me if ya like!
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 03:41 PM	#10 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	I do not just take the average off of a team and avg def of a team...I factor in home field advantage of the last 4 years. I also take into account everyone the team has played up to date as an average. If you need more insight I can break it down.
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 07:58 PM	#11 (permalink)
wahook SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 44	I hope you have playing your picks. That's a lot of coin you could be winning. I have saved the numbers that I used last year. Off and Def pts per game broken down by week. I may, most likely will, go back and try to plug in your formula. I assume you use a excel program for your calculations. If you have the time to break it down that would be helpful. thanks and GL wahook
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 08:29 PM	#12 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	one thing is for sure wig, win, lose or draw ill be on your plays buddy! great job thusfar and look for more solid plays from you from here on out bro! thanks for sharing w all of us here __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 08:32 PM	#13 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	Wig, do you have a database or spreadsheet or something you are using with your system? im just wondering how you do all of this? __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 08:48 PM	#14 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Actually I do not use excel, even though that might be a good idea. Everything is done on paper. Example: Boston College avg 28.3 off 14.0 def -------------------------------------------- Wk Forest 23.9 29.1 Virginia 25.3 21.6 Ball St 18.4 46.6 Clemson 27.3 21.1 Florida St 36.4 17.4 Army 14.0 27.3 BYU 26.0 28.4 OK, these are all of the teams Boston College has played so far this year. It shows the team averages of offensive and defensive points per game. So Boston College avg 28.3ppg on offense The average of every team that they have played this year of defensive points allowed is 27.35ppg So Boston College outperforms on offense by .95ppg. I do the same with the defense. Once you have the number for BC on the offensive and defensive side you add them together. This is BC's number So BC outperforms o noffensive by .95ppg and outperform on defensive by -10.47ppg/ Their composite performance is 11.42ppg. Then do the exact same for the other team. Once you have factored in everything including home field points them subtract to see who has the edge. In the BC vs VT game on Thursday, VT's number is 28.65 and BC's number is 11.42 which makes the difference of 17.23ppg in favor of VT. The line is at 13 so it is in VT's favor. Then I factor in the winning % of the home team for the last 4 years. > 90% = 5 pts 70-90% = 4 pts 55-70% = 3 pts 40-55% = 2 pts 25-40% = 1 pt 0-25% = 0 pts Hope this helps!
Status: Offline

10-25-05, 09:42 PM	#15 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	WOW thanks bro! you rock for sharing this info w me and the rest of us, i definately plan on using it and tracking it myself and seeing how it plays out, its been nothing but solid thusfar __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline

10-26-05, 09:31 AM	#16 (permalink)
wahook SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 44	Thanks for sharing!!! I hope it works out and I will be coattailing this week. GL wahook
Status: Offline

10-26-05, 10:52 AM	#17 (permalink)
wahook SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 44	Two last questions: 1. Do you take into account a good away team? 2. What is your "trigger" number for taking a game. Ex: Diff of +/-3, +/-4, ? Thanks for helping, wahook
Status: Offline

10-26-05, 12:43 PM	#18 (permalink)
Eaglesfan SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 2,054	WIGINGTON YOU MIND PUTTING YOUR PLAY IN THE WAR ROOM OR IF I PUT IT IN VT gets 4 points raising their edge from 13.23 ppg to 17.23 ppg. Virginia Tech -13
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10-26-05, 04:48 PM	#19 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Go ahead
Status: Offline

10-27-05, 05:41 AM	#20 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Everyone has seen this system for tonights game when Boston College takes on Virginia Tech. I do like the play of VT -13, seeing how my system shows them as a 17 point fav, but that is awefully close to the line. I am thinking about teasing it just in case. Not that I do not have faith in my system, but it is close. I'd rather win with a little insurance than lose. Give me your thoughts guys, who are yall going with? Is anyone playing this game?
Status: Offline