What do you think of the System?

Wigington · 11-16-05, 04:44 PM

Ok, I have been posting here for about 2 months or so. I am sure most people have seen the "system" that I use for NCAA & NFL. Just would like some feedback on this. Just what you think about it. Is it solid? Luck? I do all of these system plays in a paper notebook. I write them up by hand and track stats on the internet. After every event I put an "L" or "W" to keep track. So far I have made 21 picks using this system and 15 have been winners. Now there are some picks like the Virginia Tech vs Maryland game and a couple others that I cannot remember that are not in here. Unfortunately not every single play I have made using this is documented, even though I wish they were. 15/21 = 71.4% winnings. Definately a good percentage I believe. Do you think this is enough games to test the system to see if it is consistent? Once again, all thoughts are welcomed. This is my first year to cap any sports and I am just looking to get better.

Share your thoughts.

Tommy · 11-16-05, 07:11 PM

Hey man, if you keep winning don't fix what aint broke

Keep on doing what you have been doing. Great job bro!! Keep it going

tendog · 11-16-05, 11:23 PM

so this is really your first go at sports betting? if that is so, i would say you have great potential. your system has made things into simple numbers--sometimes many of us tend to make this stuff too involved--so maybe in this case simple is better. a couple of questions. do you calculate all the college games on the schedule? what difference are you looking for between your numbers and the line? how many games do you feel each team needs to have played to get a valid read on the points differential? keep up the good work, your system is impressive so far but i doubt you have enough games in your sample to be sure.

Wigington · 11-16-05, 11:35 PM

Well I didn't start using it until teams had played about 5 games a piece. When I get the Edge I see how close it is to the line. If it close or sometimes dead on I then look at the teams injuries and matchups. If it is dead on with the line and I know nothing about either teams then I pass. Typically 3 points or greater than the spread is a pretty god indicator. I have seen some games where the Edge is double the spread, in that case I take it fairly large. So far 21 games under my belt and at 71% so it is good so far. I will be keeping all records so I can see how this system played out for an entire season. This is my first season handicapping any sports, this is the reason for this post. To get better. For example tonight N. Ill vs Toledo. I couldnt get to a computer before the game, but did his on paper. Toledo had a 7.6ppg Edge, so N. Ill +10.5 is the play according to the system. One game in particular sticks out in my mind. Miami vs VT. VT had a 14.5ppg Edge over Miami, but I faded this play and took Miami. Just because of how these teams match up, I knew Miami's defense could not be simulated in practice and would keep this game close. So sometimes you have to just cap the game on its own. Either way I see if you end up with 60-65% winnings that is still pretty good. Keep the comments coming guys!

tendog · 11-16-05, 11:42 PM

60-65% is more than pretty good! lol i know the parlays knocked you down one week, but sticking with the straight action you should be able to get by on a measly 60% i should hope to do so well. anyway bedtime here in the frozen plains, what are your records in the other areas such as nfl and nba?

Wigington · 11-16-05, 11:51 PM

The system includes NFL. Sometimes it has better weeks than NCAA. Haven't used it for NBA as of yet.

Wigington · 11-17-05, 01:33 AM

Ok I am gonna test the waters with the system on the NBA tommorow. Will have 3 system plays for all 3 games tommorrow night. I am not gonna bet, but post and see how it pans out.

naught33 · 11-17-05, 08:25 AM

hey man...i LOVE your system. it takes something which is very complex and breaks it down into simple numbers and is easy to compute and gives you a good indicator as to whether the line at the book is right on or off and gives us value to bet on....i know since you've posted the system ive been on your plays and in addition to what ive played on my own its definately helped me cash....anything over 60% is good in this industry so if youre hitting 70% you are most definately onto something good. im curious to see how this works for NBA! Thanks for sharing this info man

$@M · 11-17-05, 11:00 PM

From these past weeks, i think your system has been really solid... apart from the Giants last week which really hurt... but i think you should really stick to it.

Wigington · 11-17-05, 11:42 PM

I must say thanks so much for all the feedback. I tell you, I posted my system play over at covers.com for the OU vs Tech game Saturday. This guy was making fun of it, saying how anyone can add and subtract numbers to favor who I want to win. I cannot believe it. You come up with something that helps you win and make money, you share it with others so everyone can benefit, and they make fun of it and say it is biased. I truly know where my home is. I would rather stay here with the 7-10 forumers here than the thousands over there. I'll be back with winners for Saturday!

QuickNick · 11-18-05, 12:30 AM

Well Charles, I said I was going to quit gambling sports. I was sitting here the other day and said, Nick what are you thinking about, you are going to quit, because, of some lousy calls and bad breaks and WIG has a system that is on FIRE.

To cut it short, I love your system and the HELL with those fools that laughed at your system

Wigington · 11-18-05, 12:35 AM

Glad to see ya back!!!

QuickNick · 11-18-05, 12:39 AM

Charles I am glad to be coming back, I really missed you guys and Gals around here!!!

Hope you can help me recover some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

QuickNick · 11-18-05, 12:45 AM

Charles, Professional Gamblers want to hit 55% to 58% and anything over that is gravy and they will tell you that. If you hear and capper say he picks winners at 70% and higher over a long period of time is lying. Man if your system stays close to 65% over the long run you are GOLD Bro!!!!

Shit I went on runs of 13-2 and thats 86.6% but, that was a short run for 4 days, anyone can do that, but, to keep your % up over a long run, well that separates the Best from the good!!!

I do wish you the best bro!!!

Wigington · 11-18-05, 12:55 AM

Well I will be tracking the system plays for the entire NFL & NCAA season. It would be great to say I finished 70% or higher, but if I hit around 65%, I will still be happy.

$@M · 11-18-05, 01:45 AM

back, Nicky !!!

QuickNick · 11-18-05, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by $@M

back, Nicky !!!

Thanks Bro, I could not stay away from the gang!!!

QuickNick · 11-18-05, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wigington

Well I will be tracking the system plays for the entire NFL & NCAA season. It would be great to say I finished 70% or higher, but if I hit around 65%, I will still be happy.

Charles, It take 52.4% to break out even with the juice and it you stay around 65% over a season in any sport you can't ask for anything more!!!

11-16-05, 04:44 PM	#1 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	What do you think of the System? Ok, I have been posting here for about 2 months or so. I am sure most people have seen the "system" that I use for NCAA & NFL. Just would like some feedback on this. Just what you think about it. Is it solid? Luck? I do all of these system plays in a paper notebook. I write them up by hand and track stats on the internet. After every event I put an "L" or "W" to keep track. So far I have made 21 picks using this system and 15 have been winners. Now there are some picks like the Virginia Tech vs Maryland game and a couple others that I cannot remember that are not in here. Unfortunately not every single play I have made using this is documented, even though I wish they were. 15/21 = 71.4% winnings. Definately a good percentage I believe. Do you think this is enough games to test the system to see if it is consistent? Once again, all thoughts are welcomed. This is my first year to cap any sports and I am just looking to get better. Share your thoughts.
Status: Offline

11-16-05, 07:11 PM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Hey man, if you keep winning don't fix what aint broke Keep on doing what you have been doing. Great job bro!! Keep it going
Status: Offline

11-16-05, 11:23 PM	#3 (permalink)
tendog SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 10	so this is really your first go at sports betting? if that is so, i would say you have great potential. your system has made things into simple numbers--sometimes many of us tend to make this stuff too involved--so maybe in this case simple is better. a couple of questions. do you calculate all the college games on the schedule? what difference are you looking for between your numbers and the line? how many games do you feel each team needs to have played to get a valid read on the points differential? keep up the good work, your system is impressive so far but i doubt you have enough games in your sample to be sure.
Status: Offline

11-16-05, 11:35 PM	#4 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Well I didn't start using it until teams had played about 5 games a piece. When I get the Edge I see how close it is to the line. If it close or sometimes dead on I then look at the teams injuries and matchups. If it is dead on with the line and I know nothing about either teams then I pass. Typically 3 points or greater than the spread is a pretty god indicator. I have seen some games where the Edge is double the spread, in that case I take it fairly large. So far 21 games under my belt and at 71% so it is good so far. I will be keeping all records so I can see how this system played out for an entire season. This is my first season handicapping any sports, this is the reason for this post. To get better. For example tonight N. Ill vs Toledo. I couldnt get to a computer before the game, but did his on paper. Toledo had a 7.6ppg Edge, so N. Ill +10.5 is the play according to the system. One game in particular sticks out in my mind. Miami vs VT. VT had a 14.5ppg Edge over Miami, but I faded this play and took Miami. Just because of how these teams match up, I knew Miami's defense could not be simulated in practice and would keep this game close. So sometimes you have to just cap the game on its own. Either way I see if you end up with 60-65% winnings that is still pretty good. Keep the comments coming guys!
Status: Offline

11-16-05, 11:42 PM	#5 (permalink)
tendog SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 10	60-65% is more than pretty good! lol i know the parlays knocked you down one week, but sticking with the straight action you should be able to get by on a measly 60% i should hope to do so well. anyway bedtime here in the frozen plains, what are your records in the other areas such as nfl and nba?
Status: Offline

11-16-05, 11:51 PM	#6 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	The system includes NFL. Sometimes it has better weeks than NCAA. Haven't used it for NBA as of yet.
Status: Offline

11-17-05, 01:33 AM	#7 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Ok I am gonna test the waters with the system on the NBA tommorow. Will have 3 system plays for all 3 games tommorrow night. I am not gonna bet, but post and see how it pans out.
Status: Offline

11-17-05, 08:25 AM	#8 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	hey man...i LOVE your system. it takes something which is very complex and breaks it down into simple numbers and is easy to compute and gives you a good indicator as to whether the line at the book is right on or off and gives us value to bet on....i know since you've posted the system ive been on your plays and in addition to what ive played on my own its definately helped me cash....anything over 60% is good in this industry so if youre hitting 70% you are most definately onto something good. im curious to see how this works for NBA! Thanks for sharing this info man __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline

11-17-05, 11:00 PM	#9 (permalink)
$@M SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Sydney Posts: 1,528	From these past weeks, i think your system has been really solid... apart from the Giants last week which really hurt... but i think you should really stick to it.
Status: Offline

11-17-05, 11:42 PM	#10 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	I must say thanks so much for all the feedback. I tell you, I posted my system play over at covers.com for the OU vs Tech game Saturday. This guy was making fun of it, saying how anyone can add and subtract numbers to favor who I want to win. I cannot believe it. You come up with something that helps you win and make money, you share it with others so everyone can benefit, and they make fun of it and say it is biased. I truly know where my home is. I would rather stay here with the 7-10 forumers here than the thousands over there. I'll be back with winners for Saturday!
Status: Offline

11-18-05, 12:30 AM	#11 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	Well Charles, I said I was going to quit gambling sports. I was sitting here the other day and said, Nick what are you thinking about, you are going to quit, because, of some lousy calls and bad breaks and WIG has a system that is on FIRE. To cut it short, I love your system and the HELL with those fools that laughed at your system __________________ Nick
Status: Offline

11-18-05, 12:35 AM	#12 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Glad to see ya back!!!
Status: Offline

11-18-05, 12:39 AM	#13 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	Charles I am glad to be coming back, I really missed you guys and Gals around here!!! Hope you can help me recover some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ __________________ Nick
Status: Offline

11-18-05, 12:45 AM	#14 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	Charles, Professional Gamblers want to hit 55% to 58% and anything over that is gravy and they will tell you that. If you hear and capper say he picks winners at 70% and higher over a long period of time is lying. Man if your system stays close to 65% over the long run you are GOLD Bro!!!! Shit I went on runs of 13-2 and thats 86.6% but, that was a short run for 4 days, anyone can do that, but, to keep your % up over a long run, well that separates the Best from the good!!! I do wish you the best bro!!! __________________ Nick
Status: Offline

11-18-05, 12:55 AM	#15 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Well I will be tracking the system plays for the entire NFL & NCAA season. It would be great to say I finished 70% or higher, but if I hit around 65%, I will still be happy.
Status: Offline

11-18-05, 01:45 AM	#16 (permalink)
$@M SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Sydney Posts: 1,528	back, Nicky !!!
Status: Offline