[Tommy]

By Simon Noble.

New balls please!

This week we move to Paris and serve up a Royale with Cheese while looking
for a betting edge in the second Grand Slam event of the year at Roland
Garros.

The French Open is tactically very different from the other three Grand
Slam events and is where tennis gets dirty (and I’m not talking about Anna
Kournikova). At Roland Garros, the surface of the court is made up of
natural clay covered with crushed brick which slows the pace of the game
down and increases the length of the rallies. This hands an advantage to
players with incredible power endurance – the ability to repeat short
bursts of power over a long period of time – and to quick, nimble players
who can reposition themselves well after every shot.

What are some things to consider when handicapping tennis match-ups at the
French Open? The most obvious is the player’s recent form on clay and
their conditioning during winter training. While most will come in fit and
firm, the French Open punishes those who haven’t done enough conditioning.


In addition to playing five sets, clay courts are conducive to long
rallies. These factors led to the longest game ever at the 2004 French
Open – a grueling 6 hour and 33 minute war between Santor and Clement.
Another critical thing to contemplate during the tournament is if a player
played a full five sets in the previous match because five set matches
wear a player out both physically and mentally.

Should a high seeded player win a difficult match against a weaker
opponent, consider fading that player in the next round. A tougher than
expected match might indicate a player’s form is worse than other recent
matches would suggest. Combine that with a tired player and there might be
additional value on his opponent.

If you like a certain player to win the tournament, you might find better
value backing that player – especially if they are one of the longer shots
- to win through each of their individual matches rather than betting them
to win on the futures market. Not only will you potentially earn a higher
return on your investment, but you also have more control over your money
if the player suffers an injury during the earlier rounds.

The reason for this is that when sportsbooks deal futures markets, they
try to maintain a semblance of balanced action and attempt to limit
liability on the worst case scenario. Due to a large number of bettors
playing long shots, this can often lead to grossly depressed prices on
underdogs. On the other hand, this may lead to solid value on the
favorites.

At Pinnacle Sportsbook, futures markets are normally priced between 110%
and 135% depending on the size of the field. This compares to futures
markets of greater than 200% at most traditional sports books. Even though
this represents excellent value on our future markets, often even these
margins won’t properly reward long shot players.

When betting tournaments like the French Open it’s best to estimate the
moneyline quote of a player in each round. After estimating the prices for
your selection to win through, you’ll be able to work out the estimated
parlay price. Then simply compare the projected price for your parlay to
the odds on the futures market and you’ll find whether the future or a win
parlay would give the best possible return on investment.

Another factor to consider when betting tennis is the juice you will pay
on every bet. When playing head to head match-ups, Pinnacle Sportsbetting
offers the best price thanks to our 10-cent lines. This means that when
you bet at Pinnacle Sports Book, you’ll get up to 75% better odds on
tennis than other bookmakers who use 30 or 40-cent lines. Similarly, many
of our prop bets also have a 10-cent line, offering players of every level
the same great value. You can often gain as much equity from sports book
shopping as you can from handicapping.

What should also never be overlooked, is that many players might spend
hundreds of hours handicapping individual players, but often don’t spend
five minutes studying the sportsbook where they play. It’s critical to
know the rules wherever you play - especially on tennis. You’ll find that
one of the areas where Internet sportsbooks vary quite a bit is how a
wager is graded if a player retires due to injury.

At Pinnacle Sports, if at least two full sets are completed, we grade the
match-up normally despite an injury. Other sportsbooks will refund all
bets regardless of when a player retires – even when that player is
hopelessly losing. Still other books might state “Las Vegas rules apply”.
If you must deal with an online sports book that has no listed rule or
follows Las Vegas rules (which is action after one serve), you might want
to confirm via email how they’ll grade such a result. You might be
surprised how many sportsbooks are unaware of Las Vegas rules.

What are some of the more interesting line moves this week?

Will Nadal win the French Open? Yes -104

The 19-year old Spaniard Rafael Nadal currently owns a 53-match winning
streak on clay. Federer is 39-3 on the year, with all 3 losses coming to
Nadal. Many see the French Open as a 2-horse race, with it a given that
Nadal and Federer will meet in the final. We opened the “No” for Nadal to
win at -130 (Yes +120), and early sharp money was on the “Yes”. After
stabilizing near Pick’em, we’re seeing heavy two-way action at this
number.

UFC 60: Matt Hughes (-286) v Royce Gracie (+266)

Hall of Famer Royce Gracie was considered a master practitioner of Gracie
jiu-jitsu, but hasn’t fought in the UFC since 1995. Hughes is the current
Welterweight champion and while he’s a strong wrestler, he can also knock
his opponents out. We opened Matt Hughes as a -400 favorite and early
sharp money quickly pushed this number down. It went as low as -240 before
favorite money returned, equalizing the price at the present number.

NBA Playoff series: Dallas (-360) versus Phoenix (+330)

Dallas opened as a moderate -245 favorite to win the Western Conference
Championship. While we’re now taking heavy two-way action, the early
bettors clearly favored Dallas. The sharps have been on Dallas for the
entire playoffs, including series and conference championships.

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