[Tommy]

By Tommy of SCI.

1. Important criteria in my opinion. Most people think you have to know the odds before handicapping a game. I disagree somewhat, I've always capped the game before looking at the line. The sportsbooks are looking to throw lines out and confuse you into thier perspective of the favorite and the underdog. Get a good feel for the game before looking at the odds, because when you have a good feeling for the game, you can find the value by putting your own perspective on some games of who should be the favorite, and who should be the underdog. Not every game turns out the way it should, but having a good shot at beating the book means thinking like the linesmaker.


2. Once you've handicapped the game and found some value, it's best to shop around for the best line possible, whether it be a favorite or an underdog. I suggest having 3 or more sportsbooks, funded and ready. Not every sportsbook puts out the same lines, so it's best to go after the cheapest one. The cents you will save by shopping around for the best line possible, might just save you the oppurtunity to go on that 15 game winning streak.


Part 2 of 3 Tomorrow....

[Wigington]

Agreed.

I also recommend having at least 1 exchange in their too.

Mansion/Matchbook - offer really good lines for MLB.

[Tommy]

Part 2....

3. Money management is a key component in sports betting. If you plan on winning in the long term, then I suggest you keep the sizes of your wagers very similiar, if not the same. Say you handicap the whole card for the day and come up with 15 plays that you like, I would try and narrow that down to about 3-5 of your stronger plays and put the same amount on all of them. It's also advised that you keep your plays anywhere from 2-5% of your total bankroll.

I can't say this enough, but I wouldn't just bet a game simply for action because it's on National TV or televised locally. In my opinion, that's the worst thing you can do and a fast way to go bankrupt. You mind as well not even handicap any games if you are going to do this. If you handicapped the game and it's one of your 3 strongest plays for the day, then go ahead, but don't just bet it for action or because your bored!

4. Parlays, props, teasers, pleasers, monsters, round robins and anything else thats not a straight wager are real fun, but you have to understand that these bets are a sportsbooks best friend. Matter of fact, these bets are the sportsbooks "nut" if you will. They profit on these bets more than anything else. I would try to avoid these bets like the plague. You would have to be extremely lucky to beat a book by betting these wagers, especially in the long term.

I would stay away from the gutshot props and if you really like a parlay or a teaser, then bet them all as straight wagers. Don't put all your eggs in one basket and expect all the teams involved to win, even by chopping points on a teaser, it's still very unlikely and a difficult way to make a profit.

Sports betting is fun, but how long do you want to have fun with your current bankroll? I can assure you by having bad money management and strictly placing prop bets, it won't be long!


Part 3 tomorrow...

[naught33]

good stuff tommy, ya the books love the parlays, and prop bets...they look tasty to the sportsbettor as the parlays have great odds, big payouts usually, and the props are often quick instant gratification bets.....imo parlays are good when u cap and have 2 or 3 teams u like that the MLs are really high, bc that way it reduces the juice to make it more reasonable or if u just want to throw 10 bucks and take a shot in the dark once in a while atr a 10 or 12 teamer, but jst for entertainment purposes there...not to expect u can make a living doing that bc ull hit maybe 1 or 2 giant parlays ever if that often...

money management is the toughest thing in sports betting imo....everyone wants ot make $$ and make $$ now, u gotta realize its a marathon not a sprint, if ure making money on any given day its a good day, whether it be 5 bucks, 100 bucks, 1k, or anything....u can't build ur whole bankroll in 1 day but u sure can lose it in 1 day or less lol

[Tommy]

Originally Posted by naught33

good stuff tommy, ya the books love the parlays, and prop bets...they look tasty to the sportsbettor as the parlays have great odds, big payouts usually, and the props are often quick instant gratification bets.....imo parlays are good when u cap and have 2 or 3 teams u like that the MLs are really high, bc that way it reduces the juice to make it more reasonable or if u just want to throw 10 bucks and take a shot in the dark once in a while atr a 10 or 12 teamer, but jst for entertainment purposes there...not to expect u can make a living doing that bc ull hit maybe 1 or 2 giant parlays ever if that often...

money management is the toughest thing in sports betting imo....everyone wants ot make $$ and make $$ now, u gotta realize its a marathon not a sprint, if ure making money on any given day its a good day, whether it be 5 bucks, 100 bucks, 1k, or anything....u can't build ur whole bankroll in 1 day but u sure can lose it in 1 day or less lol

Good points Naught. IMO, to have a good shot in the sports betting game and survive the long haul, you have to find the value in some, if not most possible plays.

There probably isn't much value in betting big favorites and to put them in a parlay would be even more ass backwards. Thats what I call a sucker parlay to make you think your reducing the vig, when they're making the lines to decieve in the first place.

That's why I look at a matchup before looking at the line because lines can be decieving without knowing much off hand and probably make you change your whole outlook of the game if you know the odds going in.

[dananderson32]

$ management, selectiveness, and discipline all VERY key aspects to betting on sports

[Wigington]

Great stuff.

I really enjoyed the read there.

I have read through so many forums about how 1% or a very smal few actually win at gambling and how the odds are stacked against us.

1. I would really like to know if anyone has any FACT on the % of bettors who actually make aliving wagering. I would assume its in the 30-40% range.

2. All of the points you made are so crucial to success. Its not about how much you make today, its about how much profit you turn over the season.

3. To add to money management, I think goals should be set. Especially in a long sport like mlb. Set a goal for 10 units and when that is achieved, you have your profit. Now you can re-evaluate your goals. You can stop or you can continue, but the discipline is there which is key.

4. I have heard that 2-5% is what your should risk per play. I understand why you would risk that little because when you go on a cold streak you want to limit your losses, but My perecption of a bankroll is an amount that I am willing to lose to reach a return. I wager 10%. Its very aggressive and some may see it as foolish, but once I hit +10 units, thats 100% return.
Also, I know that I am capable of winning ata 55-58% rate at worst. I had some good success in football last year(knock-on-wood). So you can judge how you feel you are and determine what your % should be.

[Tommy]

I was searching the forum and came upon this thread. Good points Wig. Go with the flow with your bankroll, but always keep it selective like Dano pointed out.

The 30% or 40% that actually make a living off sports betting is closer to 3% than 30.

I would also like to mention that some people try to make it a living, but just cannot go through the grind or just never figure out what it takes in the first place.

There are alot of key things to study, not only that, but what to study and how to look at what your studying or what actually matters.

Many sports bettors look the wrong way and even view what thier looking at totally wrong.

If sports betting is a piece of fine art and there are 10,000 sports bettors looking at the same piece, I would say only 1 out of the 10,000 even know what thier looking at.

[Tommy]

May I also mention that only about 1 out of 50 touts actually make a living off the actual betting on sports, the rest make a living off good marketing skills, shilling and luring people in.