[Tommy]

NY Jets.

It is hard to believe that the New York Jets were Super Bowl contenders just two short years ago, as this is now one of the worst teams in the league. The offense was totally inept last season averaging just 269.8 yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Chad Pennington missed most of the year with a rotator cuff injury, and his arm strength has always been questionable to begin with. The Jets traded for Patrick Ramsay, but he was given many opportunities to be the man at Washington and failed every time. Not only did the passing game suffer but the Jets averaged just 83.0 yards per game on the ground last year, as Curtis Martin finally started to show his age. Martin is out right now and there is a chance that his NFL career may already be over. We do like the draft selection of running back Leon Washington out of Florida State in the fourth round, but we are not sure he is ready to step in right now. The receiving corps is ordinary at best, which does not make the quarterback job any easier. In all fairness, this offense had no chance to succeed behind a beat up offensive line last year, and the first two draft picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold should be instant starters. While that bodes well for the future, this group will take its lumps again this season, especially with veterans Mawae and Fabini gone.

The Jets were not much better defensively, despite ranking a respectable 11th in the NFL in total defense. To give you an idea of how deceptive numbers can be sometimes, the Jets actually ranked second in the league in pass defense. However, the only reason for that was that opposing teams were able to run the ball on the Jets at will as they surrendered an incredible 136.6 rushing yards per game! Thus teams had no trouble controlling time of possession, and did not need to put the ball in the air. The Jets did try and plug things up with free agent acquisitions Kimo von Oelhoffen from the World Champion Steelers and Matt Chatham from New England, but this unit still has a ways to go. The Jets 4-12 finish last season was no fluke, and we look for a similar record this year.

Prediction for 2006: 4th Place AFC East


New England Patriots

The Patriots look like a team on the decline, as they lost a ton of players in the off-season without adding much veteran help. New England did have a good draft as usual, but outside of Laurence Maroney, they may not reap the benefits for another couple of years. This team is still good enough to win one of the weakest divisions in football in the AFC East, but we do expect another early exit in the playoffs similar to last year.

Granted the Pats still has one of the best clutch quarterbacks of all time in Tom Brady, and the speedy Maroney should see a lot of action at running back right away as a nice compliment to the more bruising Corey Dillon. However the receiving corps is suddenly suspect, unless second round draft pick Chad Jackson has an immediate impact. Now Jackson is talented, but wide receivers usually need a few years in the league before reaching their potential, and we feel that is the case here. Finally, the Patriots no longer have kicker Adam Vinatieri around to kick winning field goals with games on the line.

The defense was the cornerstone of the Patriot championship teams, but this unit showed some slippage last season, especially against the pass. In fact the secondary was torched for 245.4 passing yards per game, second worst in the NFL. Furthermore New England lost linebackers Willie McGinnest and Matt Chatham to free agency, as well as defensive back Tyrone Poole. The only veteran addition to this unit is safety Tebucky Jones, which is not saying much, so look for good passing teams to take advantage of this New England team at every opportunity. Fortunately for the Patriots, there is no such team inside the division.

Prediction for 2006: 1st Place AFC East


Buffalo Bills

If not for the fact that the Bills are in the same division as the woeful New York Jets, Buffalo would be a prime candidate for the basement this season!

The offense ranked 29th in the league in 2005, and we do not expect much improvement this year even with the emergence of running back Willis McGahee as the star of this team. There are simply too many question marks at the other offensive skill positions, especially at quarterback. J.P. Losman proved to be a bust after being handed that position last year, and is now in a fight with Kelly Holcombe for the starting job. The Bills also traded wide receiver Eric Moulds to Houston while re-signing free agent Peerless Price. Moulds had an off year last season, but no Buffalo receiver could have had good numbers given the poor quarterback play, and Moulds was still the most talented receiver on the roster. We feel that Price represents a downgrade at the position. While McGahee showed some flashes of brilliance while rushing for over 1200 yards last season, even he showed signs of fatigue in the second half rushing for 100 yards just once in the last eight games. Finally the Buffalo offensive line also needs to improve.

The defense seems adequate on paper, but it lost two key starters to free agency in defensive back Lawyer Milloy and defensive tackle Justin Bannan, and the Bills were also forced to release one of their better run-stoppers in Sam Adams. Also the current players have to get used to a brand new scheme under new coach Dick Jauron. Opposing teams had no trouble running on the Bills last year averaging a whopping 137.8 rushing yards per game, and they should have an easy time of it again with Adams gone. Buffalo did draft two defensive linemen with its first five picks, but we feel trading up to 26th in the first round to tab John McCargo was a big reach. In fact fourth round pick Kyle Williams may be the first member of this rookie crop to start for the Bills before all is said and done.

Prediction for 2006: 3rd Place AFC East


Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins played as well as any team in the league in the second half last season, and they upgraded at the quarterback slot during the off-season provided Daunte Culpepper is fully recovered from his knee injury.

That being said, they will miss suspended running back Ricky Williams, who actually did an excellent job spelling Ronnie Brown last year. In fact Williams had more touchdowns (6) than Brown (4) despite not joining the Dolphins until Week 5. Miami does have a nice trio of receivers in Chris Chambers, Marty Booker and the newly acquired Kelly Campbell. If Culpepper can regain his past form, that group could potentially put up some nice numbers this year. However, the health of Culpeper is still in doubt, and should he miss some time we are not confident that Joey Harrington is the answer. Also Brown has yet to prove that he could be an every down back.

The defensive is the strength of this Dolphins team, and if their first round draft pick Jason Allen is fully healed from a hip injury that hindered him last year, he should instantly improve the secondary. While this team has the potential to battle for a wild card berth, there are simply too many ifs on both sides of the ball to expect much more than an 8-8 season. Then again, that record should be good enough for the Dolphins to finish second in the AFC East.

Prediction for 2006: 2nd Place AFC East


Written by Mike Rose of BetWWTS

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