[Tommy]

Dave Johnson’s ‘Inside the Lines’ NFL preview which includes football odds, football line movement, injuries, weather, betting action, ATS statistics, team rankings and betting propositions.

(8-5) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (8-5) Minnesota Vikings 1:00 ET

Opening NFL Odds: Steelers -3 (+1.05) o/u 42
Current NFL Odds: Steelers -4 o/u 40.5

(Bet NFL Football now at www.wagerweb.com )

Breakdown:
The Steelers sit two games behind the 1st place Bengals in the AFC North. They are still very much alive in the wild card race although their division title hopes are slim. Last week’s 21-9 victory over the Bears has kept them very much alive. In his third game back quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw 13 completions for 173 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.
Minnesota sits only one game behind the 1st place Chicago Bears in the NFC North. A win this week coupled with a loss by the Bears would put them in a tie for the division lead. Quarterback Brad Johnson is 6-0 with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions since taking over for injured starting quarterback Daunte Culpepper.

(Football Betting at www.wagerweb.com )

Injuries:
Steelers
QB Ben Roethlisberger expected to start.

Vikings
No serious injuries to report.

Betting Action:
The Steelers opened as -3 point favorite early in the week. They have steadily risen to -4 as a result of 6 to 1 bets being played in their favor. Many bettors were obviously impressed with the 21-9 victory last week over the Chicago Bears. One thing to keep in mind in this game is the ‘noise factor’ of the Metrodome. In a game like this with so much on the line something so simple as ‘noise’ could be a deciding factor.
The total on this game opened 42 and has dropped to 40.5 as a result of 2 to 1 betting on the ‘under’. The Steelers have the leagues 8th ranked defense and Roethlisberger is still nursing an injury so the total on this game could keep dropping.

ATS (Against the Spread):
Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-2 ATS this season on the road.
Minnesota Vikings are 5-1 ATS at home this season.

Steelers over/under ratio this season on the road is 0-6.
Vikings over/under ratio this season at home is 2-4.

Team Rankings:
Offense
Steelers ranked 20th overall at 314.3 yards per game.
Vikings ranked 25th overall at 290.0 yards per game.

Defense
Steelers ranked 8th allowing 2297.3 yards per game.
Vikings ranked 26th allowing 392.2 yards per game.

NFL Football Betting Propositions:
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Vikings 24th ranked passing defense.
Current Betting Odds: Roethlisberger over or under 217 passing yards?
Quick Statistic:
Roethlisberger has thrown for an average of 230.66 yards in his last 3 games this season.

(Bet this NFL Player Props now at www.wagerweb.com )


(8-5) San Diego Chargers @ (13-0) Indianapolis Colts 1:00 ET

Opening NFL Odds: Colts -7.5 o/u 51
Current NFL Odds: Colts -7 o/u 52

(Bet NFL Football now at www.wagerweb.com )

Breakdown:
The Chargers sit two games behind the 1st place Broncos in the AFC West. The 23-21 devastating loss last week to the Miami Dolphins made their wildcard chances a little more difficult. San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 75 yards on 21 carries in the loss.
Indianapolis will continue the quest towards a perfect 16-0 season. Last week’s 26-18 win over the Jaguars clinched the AFC South title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Head Coach Tony Dungy will not rest Manning or any other starters in this contest. However, he has said that may change next week vs. the Seattle Seahawks.

Injuries:
Chargers
RB LaDainian Tomlinson listed as probable.

Colts
No serious injuries to report.

Betting Action:
The Colts opened as a -7.5 point favorite. Dungy has said he will not rest starters so the game has remained relatively stable. At this time we are writing strong money at a 1 to 1 ratio on both the Colts and the Chargers. Expect this game to remain -7 up until kick-off.
The total on this game has garnered huge attention. We are writing ‘over’ money at a 9 to 1 ratio. It opened 51 but is currently up to 52 and could go higher. Both teams are ranked in Top-10 in total offense and the Chargers passing defense is ranked 27th in the league.

ATS (Against the spread):
San Diego Chargers are 4-2 ATS this season on the road.
Indianapolis Colts are 3-3 ATS at home this season.

Chargers over/under ratio this season on the road is 2-4.
Colts over/under ratio this season at home is 2-4.

Team Rankings:
Offense
Chargers ranked 8th overall at 357.3 yards per game.
Colts ranked 3rd overall at 373.5 yards per game.

Defense
Chargers ranked 14th allowing 309.8 yards per game.
Colts ranked 4th allowing 285.8 yards per game.

NFL Football Betting Propositions:
Peyton Manning vs. Chargers 27th ranked passing defense.
Current Betting Odds: Manning over or under 23 completions?
Quick Statistic:
Manning completed 27 passes vs. the Chargers last season.

(Bet this NFL Player Props now at www.wagerweb.com )


(8-5) Dallas Cowboys @ (7-6) Washington Redskins 4:15 ET

Opening NFL Odds: Redskins -3(+1.20) o/u 36
Current NFL Odds: Redskins -2.5 o/u 35

(Bet NFL Football now at www.wagerweb.com )

Breakdown:
The Cowboys sit one game behind the 1st place New York Giants in the NFC East. Last week’s 31-28 win over the Kansas City Chiefs was crucial to their playoff hopes. They had dropped two straight games before that contest and were in serious need of a momentum change. Quarterback Drew Bledsoe bounced from his slump throwing for 332 yards with 3 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Washington is still very much alive in the NFC East and the wildcard race as well. They are 7-6 and sit only one game behind Dallas. They won last week vs. the Cardinals despite a very poor offensive effort. Quarterback Mark Brunell threw for only 122 yards and was intercepted three times in the 1st half.

Injuries:
Cowboys
No serious injuries to report.

Redskins
QB Mark Brunell listed as ‘probable’.

Betting Action:
The Cowboys earned some respect last week over their win vs. the Chiefs. This game opened with the Redskins as a -3 (+1.20) favorite but has moved to -2.5 as a result of 3 to 1 Cowboys money played. On paper these teams match up very well. With playoff consequences on the line expect a very close game. Buying onto the ‘3 count’ may not be a bad idea considering the match-up.

The total opened 36 and has since dropped to 35. However, money is being played on the ‘over’ at a 3 to 1 ratio so it could go back to 36. It will be cold but no weather precipitation is on the forecast at this time.

ATS (Against the spread):
Cowboys are 3-3 ATS this season on the road.
Redskins are 3-3 ATS at home this season.

Cowboys over/under ratio this season on the road is 3-3.
Redskins over/under ratio this season at home is 2-4.

Team Rankings:
Offense
Cowboys ranked 13th overall at 332.4 yards per game.
Redskins ranked 14th overall at 330.5 yards per game.

Defense
Cowboys ranked 10th allowing 300.7 yards per game.
Redskins ranked 9th allowing 298.8 yards per game.

NFL Football Betting Propositions:
Keyshawn Johnson vs. Redskins 11th ranked passing defense.
Current Betting Odds: Johnson over or under 55 receiving yards?
Quick Statistic:
Johnson had 2 receptions for 26 yards earlier this season vs. Redskins.

(Bet this NFL Player Props now at www.wagerweb.com )


(8-5) Atlanta Falcons @ (9-4) Chicago Bears 8:35 ET

Opening NFL Odds: Bears -3 o/u 30.5
Current NFL Odds: Bears -3 (-1.25) o/u 31.5

(Bet NFL Football now at www.wagerweb.com )

Breakdown:
The Falcons sit one game behind the Panthers and the Buccaneers in the very competitive NFC South. Quarterback Michael Vick was injured last week in the win over the Saints but has been upgraded to ‘expected to play’. His availability in this game is crucial if the Falcons hope to score points vs. the NFL’s stingiest defense. Last week he threw for 231 yards and rushed for 38 vs. the New Orleans Saints.
Chicago owns the 1st ranked overall defense in the NFL. They are one game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North with three games to play. Last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers broke their nine-game winning streak and as a result starting quarterback Kyle Orton could be replaced with Rex Grossman.

Injuries:
Falcons
QB Michael Vick upgraded to probable.

Bears
No serious injuries to report.

Betting Action:
The Bears coming off the loss last week have garnered some early attention. They opened as a -3 point favorite and have risen to 3 (-1.25) as a result of 2 to 1 money being played. Michael Vick is expected to play but he is still hurt. With this in mind we expect to continue to write Bears money up until kick-off.

The total opened 30.5 and has risen slightly to 31.5. However, expect this game to drop before kick-off. The weather forecast is calling for 30% chance of snow, 8-13 mph winds and a wind chill factor of 3 degrees. Money already started coming in Saturday on the ‘under’ and as a result you should see it start to drop. Wind and snow force teams to run the ball which in turns burns the clock. The quicker the clock burns the less points are scored.

ATS (Against the spread):
Falcons are 3-3 ATS this season on the road.
Bears are 5-2 ATS at home this season.

Falcons over/under ratio this season on the road is 2-4.
Bears over/under ratio this season at home is 1-6.

Team Rankings:
Offense
Falcons ranked 10th overall at 346.3 yards per game.
Bears ranked 28th overall at 256.3 yards per game.

Defense
Falcons ranked 18th allowing 317.5 yards per game.
Bears ranked 1st allowing 270.5 yards per game.

NFL Football Betting Propositions:
Michael Vick vs. Bears 1st ranked overall defense.
Current Betting Odds: Vick over or under 195 rushing and passing yards?
Quick Statistic:
Vick has averaged 223.33 rushing and passing yards in his last 3 games.

(Bet this NFL Player Props now at www.wagerweb.com