[Wigington]

Merry Christmas to everyone. I stumbled across this article and it gives very good insight and would like everyone here to give it a glance.

Accurate record keeping and a diligent money management policy are equally if not more important than the ability to pick winners for anyone with ambitions to make consistent profits in the sports betting arena. I have posted several articles on various staking methods and money management and one should copy these and file away for constant viewing.
Most people with a general interest in sport have the ability to pick a winning team in any contest, but the belief that this alone is enough to secure a steady flow of profits is a certain recipe for disaster. Without an overall plan and accurate records of all bets placed it is impossible to rise above the level of intuition and lucky guessing over an extended period.
Make no mistake about it, there are countless punters all over the world who fail regularly to make a decent income from betting simply because they rely totally on their ability to pick winners without regard for money management and a cohesive strategy that covers the "bigger picture."
I know of many gamblers who have ended their days with little to show for a lifetime's work despite having reasonable ability in researching and weighing-up the factors involved in determining a winning bet because they didn't formulate a long-term plan and strategy.
Am I making myself clear? Have I got your attention? Let me say it again. To have any real prospect of making long-term profits from the field of sports betting - accurate records, money management, and a dedicated approach to research and fact-finding are crucial and compulsory, or a lifetime of disappointment is guaranteed.
So where do we start? That's easy, first of all we need a few items to help us along. Get yourself a pen and a notebook, some refreshments (tea, coffee, fizzy carbonated drinks and chocolate are good, alcohol is not) and get comfortable.
Today I am going to establish the principles that will last a lifetime, and go a long way towards turning enthusiastic amateur punters into full time professional sports investors.
Let's be clear that there is no magic formula or secret ingredient that will turn a pin sticker into a bookie-plunderer overnight, and there are simply no shortcuts that I know of. Hard work and persistence are the main qualities needed here, and if you aren't willing to invest some time and effort then it's time to stop reading.
If on the other hand you have a desire to move up a level from a hobby bettor, then get ready for many hours studying your new profession, and be ready to reap the rewards.
Starting today, not tomorrow, but today, establish a bankroll. How much are you prepared to lose? How much can you afford to invest in yourself? Set a figure that you can live comfortably with and be prepared to lose every single penny of it. Hang on, isn't this supposed to be about winning money? I hear many of you shouting at the page. Yes of course it is, but let's use the initial bankroll and set ourselves the "worst case scenario" where it all ends up in the bookies wallet if we fail.
It won't happen if the principles I outline are followed, but let's assume it all goes horribly wrong and if the bankroll is an amount we can afford to lose, then nothing will be lost except a little money. Our lives won't be dramatically altered by a miss-guided attempt to enter an arena for which we have no aptitude.
Starting today you will make a note of every single bet you make. I don't need to do this with you as I already do and have every bet I have made be it ?1 or ?1000, it is all logged. Date, selection, price, stake, percentage of stake in relation to bankroll, returns, profit/loss and finally accumulated balance. No exceptions, no misses, no excuses.
Every single penny of the bankroll must now be accounted for every step of the way with no room for the "I'll do it later" attitude. Quite simply, without this record keeping there is absolutely no possible way of getting an accurate picture of a betting campaign, and if it's left to memory we cannot hope to progress beyond the level of amateur punting.
The next rule to ingrain on our thought process is how much to bet with on each bet, and the rule here is simple. Never bet more than 5% of the bankroll on any given game. Less would be better 2 - 3%, but 5% is high enough and should be only betted when as much is in your favour as could possibly be. This means that if the bankroll is ?1000, on no occasion should any more than ?50 be at risk on any one game.
It doesn't matter if a "sure thing" is offered (there will always be sure things), no more than 5% is a rule that I adhere to except under the most exceptional circumstances. These exceptional circumstances have presented themselves to me on three occasions the last calendar year and I was fortunate enough to win on all three.
The reasons are easily explained. By never risking more than this percentage you are assured that a bad run of losing bets will not wipe out your entire bank, and all the while you'll be building up an exhaustive record of bets placed that will help you to pinpoint your strengths and weaknesses in the tipping area of your strategy.
I cannot emphasise strongly enough how vital this first-level money management principle is to long term success. Without the discipline required to stick to the strategy you might as well give up and go back to whatever methods you used before.
In summary here's what I've outlined today.
Establish an initial bankroll
Keep accurate records of all bets
Never risk more than 5% (less is better) of the bank on any one game.

Of all the sports that an online sportsbook or local bookie will take a wager on, football by far is the best when it comes to action and excitement. If you are capable of keeping your mind and heart separate when it comes to analyzing games, you are already on your way to a winning season. Below are a few important things to remember for any serious handicapper.
1. Some guy pawning a 1-900-number does not have inside information or secret spies hidden in the locker room. If you believe that, you deserve to fork over the $25 or more for a call to a guy who is lucky to hit 50% for the year.
2. Watch as much football as you possibly can. Nothing beats actually seeing the games. Watching ESPN or reading in the sports page about a 42-17 blowout does not always tell the entire story. A team may get blown out in terms of scoring, but drove up and down the field and turned it over in the redzone or took stupid penalties. The following week the team that was humiliated is a huge dog and the team that blew them out a big favorite. Maybe the team that scored 42 is playing a team that won’t fumble every time in the red zone.
3. Understand garbage yards and the backdoor cover. Sure a team may have had 400 yards passing, but that was after being down 28-0 and playing against guys who didn’t even start in high school. Having a team minus 24 and being up 28-0, but allowing Badball University to score a late garbage TD will haunt a gambler’s dreams for weeks.
4. Avoid doubling up at all costs. Trying to double bets to break even has backfired more than it has worked. I have seen people go from being down a few hundred to a few thousand in a single gameday.
5. Passing is fun to watch, but running is the key. One of my all-time favorite Sports Stats is from 1998 when out of 276 games that had a line with an actual spread winner, the team that had more rushing yards covered 202 times. Look it up, 202 times!
6. Watch out for trends and tread lightly. Most preview magazines post these almost unbelievable trends. So-and-So State is 8-0 vs. John Doe U the last 8 years! That is incredible you say; well, go back another 8 years and you see the series goes the other way and now you have an 8-8 trend. A good matchup analysis or power rating beats a trend almost every time.
7. If you are going to load up on something, load up in the early season. A few years back Tulane was God’s gift to the sharp handicapper until Vegas started adjusting their line. Tulane returned a defense that was incredible the year before, but they had no ESPN highlights or ink in the sports page. Look for the Tulane story of 2003-04 and ride that “unknown pony” until you have to get off.
8. If you have a favorite team or player, stay away from their games unless you are betting against them. No matter what you try and believe, you cannot reasonably handicap a team you love to watch and root for. You will make yourself believe they can win regardless if there are 100 angles pointing against it.
9. Dips/Teasers are sucker bets. There is no theory or statistics you can give me to think otherwise. When I would get a call and have someone place a dip, I knew I had at least one winner in the books for the day. Sure, people may have these stories how they hit 10 dips in a row, or how you can’t lose by dropping the point down and with the over, or boost NFL dogs up and mix them into combos. SUCKER!
The do’s and don’ts are endless. Bottom line is to keep your money and heart separate and understand the fact of life that there is a reason your bookie has a much nicer car and house than you. Good luck this season!