[Tommy]

by Al McMordie.

On December 28, in San Antonio, Lloyd Carr's Wolverines will take on Bill Callahan's Cornhuskers at the Alamodome. These two storied progams have met 5 previous times, and U-M has gotten the upper hand, going 3-1-1 in the series. The last meeting came in the 1986 Fiesta Bowl, which Michigan won 27-23 as a 3.5-point favorite. For this year's contest, the oddsmakers opened Michigan as a 13-point favorite, and the number has come down a bit to the current price of Michigan -11.5. The total is 46.5 points.

One of the storylines in this game is whether Michigan will be excited about being here. Carr expressed displeasure a few weeks ago and called for a 16-team Playoff format when the Outback Bowl selected Iowa over the 20th-ranked Wolverines, even though Michigan defeated the Hawkeyes this season. That decision by the Outback Bowl committee ended U-M's string of 9 straight New Year's Day Bowls, although Michigan still maintains the nation's longest active bowl streak at 31 seasons. But Iowa's fans travel better than Michigan's and that fact is being laid bare in San Antonio, as Michigan has only sold half its 12,000 allotted tickets (in stark contrast to unranked Nebraska which has exceeded its 10,800 ticket allotment and will bring more than 11,000 fans). Still, even though Michiganders aren't being moved to make the journey to South Texas, I think it's dangerous to assume that the Wolverine players won't be motivated to win.

Another storyline in this game is that these two schools split the National Championship in 1997 (a fact which still irks Michigan supports since U-M was #1 in both polls going into the Bowl games, but Tom Osborne's impending retirement caused a number of pollsters to fall victim to sympathy and they switched allegiances). Of course this year's editions are nowhere near the 1997 squads. Both Michigan and Nebraska enter with 7-4 records, although Nebraska comes into the game off back to back wins (over Kansas State and Colorado) while U-M suffered a heartbreaking, last-second loss to Ohio State.

In previous Alamo Bowl appearances, Nebraska has fared much better. The 'Huskers are 2-0 with wins over Northwestern (66-17) (2000) and Michigan State (17-3) (2003), while Michigan lost 22-20 to Texas A&M in 1995.

Michigan is led by quarterback Chad Henne (6th all-time for Michigan with 4,999 passing yards), running back Mike Hart (who should play after injuries affected much of his season), and wide receiver Jason Avant (74 catches for 936 yards and 8 TDs).

Nebraska will key its offense around junior quarterback Zac Young (2nd in Big 12 passing yards with 2,486) and wide receiver Nate Swift (42 catches for 610 yards and 6 TDs).

Without a doubt, Michigan is the more talented team. But it's awfully tough to lay double-digits in Bowl games. Already this year, Arkansas State stayed within the number against Southern Miss. But this game is a perfect candidate for laying the big price. Since 1980, Michigan has fared well as big Bowl favorites, going 3-0-1 ATS when laying 8 or more points. And Nebraska has been dreadful as Bowl underdogs, going 2-6 ATS since 1980.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.