[Tommy]

By Michael Robinson.

The NFL has narrowed the teams down to its “Final Four,” and this column has continued to stay red hot. The week finished at 3-1, with the Patriots and their turnover problems killing any chance for another perfect week. The last five weeks have had an 18-7 mark, with the year to date record now at 42-40.

The first win of the week was Seattle giving 9 points to the Redskins, and winning 20-10. Washington led 3-0, and it didn’t look good for Seattle with running back Shaun Alexander hurt, and the Seahawks continually turning the ball over. Seattle got a field goal with four minutes left to give them a 10 point lead, resulting in somewhat of a fortunate cover.

The second win of the week was Pittsburgh getting 9.5 points from Indianapolis, and winning 21-18. The cover in this game was secured pretty much in the first few minutes. Pittsburgh jumped on the Colts at the outset, and went up 14-0 and 21-3. The Colts made a serious rally to almost tie the game at the end, but they had zero chance of winning by double digits.

The third win of the week was Carolina getting three points from Chicago, and winning 29-21. Like the Pittsburgh game, there were very few moments where the cover was in jeopardy. Carolina led 14-0, and while the Bears cut the lead to two points on two separate occasions, the Carolina offense always answered right back.

The loss of the week was New England getting three points from Denver, and losing 27-13. It was predicted that the Patriots’ defense would have success against the Denver running game, and that is what happened. What was not considered was that New England would turn the ball over five times like a Pop Warner squad. When you do that on the road in the playoffs, you lose every time.

Bet Now: Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Denver

Pittsburgh is 13-5 after two playoff road wins over Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The Colts game was the shocking one, as Pittsburgh was almost 10 point underdogs, and they beat the Colts up physically and emotionally. Now, they go to Denver to play a team that is not likely to get rattled ala Peyton Manning and company.

Last week, the Steelers passed the ball to set up the run. Pittsburgh will not have a lot of success running the ball with Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker against Denver’s quick defense, so quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will again carry the burden on his shoulders. Roethlisberger will try to attack one of the two rookie cornerbacks that will play opposite All-Pro Champ Bailey.

The Denver defense brought a lot of pressure last week against the Patriots’ Tom Brady, but you have to be careful against Roethlisberger for two reasons. One is that he is so big, that even if you get to him, he can still make the completion with a defender draped all over him. The second is that he has the ability to scramble away from the pressure, and find an open receiver down the field.

Denver is 14-3 after beating the two-time defending champion New England Patriots. The Broncos did not play their best game of the year, but were aided by turnovers, most of which they helped cause. Denver’s running game was held to under 100 total yards last week, which is not their normal formula for success.

The Broncos will try to get running backs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell untracked, but will likely only have a moderate amount of success. That means that quarterback Jake Plummer will try to exploit his wide receiver tandem of Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie against a mediocre Pittsburgh pass defense. Plummer also uses his tight end, Jeb Putzier effectively in the middle of the field.

The Pittsburgh defense will likely use their “Blitzburgh” attack again this week. They also have to be careful though because Plummer is a lot more mobile than Manning. “Jake the Snake” can tuck it and run, and is adept at throwing on the move. The old saying is that you “live by the sword and die by the sword” when you blitz, and either could happen to Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Outlook

Pittsburgh, along with Carolina, is trying to become the first team since the 1985 New England Patriots to win three straight road games on the way to the Super Bowl. The Patriots ended up getting embarrassed by Mike Ditka’s Chicago Bears and their “Super Bowl Shuffle”, but we will save that story for another time.

These two teams are fairly even on paper, with Denver getting the slight advantage in personnel, and a big home field advantage. Denver is 9-0 at home this year and has always had one of the biggest home advantages in the NFL. I also do no think that Pittsburgh can duplicate their intensity from last week, especially coming off such an emotional game.

Pick: Denver

Bet Now: Carolina (+3.5) at Seattle

Carolina is 13-5 after road playoff wins over the Giants and Bears. The offensive game-plan for Carolina was simple for those contests, a healthy dose of running back DeShaun Foster, and a passing game predicated on getting the ball to Steve Smith. Smith has accounted for 66% of the team’s passing yards in the playoffs.

A problem for Carolina is that Foster is out for the rest of the season with a broken ankle. Backup Nick Goings gained over 800 yards rushing last year, but this year he was limited to just 37 attempts in the regular season. Goings is a north-south runner who is not afraid of contact, but he is not the explosive threat that Foster is.

The Seattle defense will still have to respect the Carolina running game, but they will not have to keep a safety in the box as often. That means more double coverage on Smith, something the Bears did not do enough of. The Seahawks know that Carolina receivers, Keary Colbert and Drew Carter are decent players, but Smith is playing at an MVP level right now.

Seattle is 14-3 after a 20-10 win over the Redskins. Unlike Carolina, Seattle has only had to play one playoff game. In the Washington game, Seattle running back Shaun Alexander left the game in the first quarter with a concussion. Alexander will supposedly start this week, but there is certainly no guarantee on how long he will play.

If Alexander can not carry the load, Seattle will turn to Maurice Morris. Morris is a slashing running back, but he does not have the ability to pound the ball like Alexander. The Carolina front seven is banged up, so Seattle would love to control the clock via the running game. That is only possible with Alexander at full strength.

If Seattle is forced to pass the ball to win, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck needs to be patient against an aggressive Carolina defense. Seattle has good, but not great, receivers in Darrell Jackson, Joe Jurevicius, and Bobby Engram. They will be going against two very good cornerbacks in Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble.

Outlook

There is a good chance that this game could be decided by which quarterback plays better. Hasselbeck played very good last week against Washington, but Carolina’s Jake Delhomme took his team to the Super Bowl two years ago, and he is looking like the league’s best clutch quarterback this side of Tom Brady.

If Alexander is not at full strength, the only real advantage for Seattle is the home field where the Seahawks are 9-0. Carolina is the better defensive team, they are more physical on both sides of the ball and they have the bigger playmakers. Taking all those factors into consideration, the pick is Carolina and the points.

Pick: Carolina