[Tommy]

Another week, another Super Bowl favorite. After the demise of Indy, it was Denver who took over the poisoned chalice of favouritism but that was short-lived, and the team that beat both the Colts and the Broncos are now favoured at 5/9 straight up. Pittsburgh, who were as big as 50/1 after Week 13, will now face Seattle in Super Bowl XL after becoming the first sixth seed to reach the big game. We make Pittsburgh 4-point favorites after winning on the road against the first, second and third seeds in their Conference. Seattle, who were available at 40/1 (Pittsburgh 16/1) pre-season, are in their first Super Bowl after easily disposing a lack-lustre Carolina. The total is set at 47 here at bet365.

If anything, the Super Bowl line is based on the belief that the AFC is vastly superior to the NFC. Pittsburgh, a No.6 seed, is -4 against Seattle, the NFC's top seed. That belief is backed up by looking at the teams that Pittsburgh have beaten in recent weeks – Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver – and they would have won all three by double-digits if it wasn't for a Jerome Bettis fumble near the goal line against Indy.

In comparison, Seattle have had a relatively easy time of it getting to the Super Bowl, handing out a 20-10 the Redskins in the divisional round, and then blowing out the Carolina Panthers 34-14 in the NFC Championship Game. And neither the Redskins (little offence) nor the Panthers (too many injuries) brought anything close to their 'A' game against the Seahawks.

The Steelers also became the second team in history to win three consecutive playoff games on the road to land in the Super Bowl. Yes the Seahawks are extremely tough at home, but where were Seattle's big road wins? During the regular season, the Seahawks' road wins came against the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Titans and an injury-depleted Eagles club. They struggled to beat the 49ers and the Titans, and they might struggle again at Ford Field in Detroit on February 5th (live 'In-play' betting here at bet365).


BETTORS RIDING STEELERS BUS TO VICTORY AT -4
Bettors here at bet365 certainly think so after backing the early -3 down to -4. That could easily go to -4.5 next week, especially as there is more of a fan base for Pittsburgh, and the general public tend to bet up the favorite on these occasions. So, if you're thinking of backing the Steelers, don't wait till next week, take the -4 now.

Super Bowl XL Pick: Pittsburgh -4 @ 10/11


BIG BEN 11/4 FOR GREATNESS
Last year's final featured two fine QB's in Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady. Brady was calm the whole game because he was playing in his third Super Bowl in four years, while McNabb (playing his first) was erratic. Nerves will again play a large part in this year's Super Bowl. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger will become the second youngest QB (after the Dolphin's Dan Marino) to play in a Super Bowl at 23 years 11 months. Last year, he came close to becoming the first rookie QB to start in a Super Bowl, but was intercepted three times in the Steeler's 41-27 loss to the Pats in the AFC Championship game. Against Denver, he looked much more comfortable when completing 13-of-17 passes for 180 yards and two TD's in the first half, before finishing the job in the fourth quarter with a four-yard TD. That was his third striking performance in the playoffs. He's 11/4 favorite to pick up the Super Bowl MVP award, ahead of his Seattle counterpart Matt Hasselback, and the league MVP Shaun Alexander at 3/1.

Ben Roethlisberger to be Super Bowl MVP @ 11/4

bet365 Super Bowl XL MVP prices … Ben Rothlisberger 11/4, Matt Hasselback 3/1, Shaun Alexander 3/1, Jerome Bettis 13/2, Hines Ward, Troy Polamulu 8/1 Darrel Jackson 12/1, others on bet365 website.


MANNING SPECIALS
bet365 go 7/2 that Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning will win a Super Bowl one day, and pitch Manning's brother Eli (NY Giants) at 5/6 each in a match bet on who lifts the Vince Lombardi Trophy first.

More Super Bowl ramblings next week, including a look at our huge range of super Bowl props. In the meantime, don't forget, when placing your wagers this weekend our Parlay Bonus pays out more pays out up to 50% more on successful football (and basketball) parlays on the following 6 markets:-

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Get in the game and be lucky!

Nigel