[Tommy]

By Michael Robinson.

It has been over two weeks since this specific column has been written. When we last left off, this column was absolutely on fire, going 18-7 heading into the conference championship games. The confidence couldn’t have been any higher when Denver and Carolina were predicted to cover the spread, and face each other in Super Bowl XL.

Bet Now: Seattle (4.5) vs. Pittsburgh

Of course, both picks turned out to be dead wrong, and neither selection was even close to being correct. Those two losses put the year to date record at 42-42, meaning that this pick will determine whether the final record is slightly above, or below .500.

Now that the two-week hype leading up to the Super Bowl is almost over, both teams can finally get back to what they do best, play football.

When Pittsburgh has the ball

As everyone knows, the Steelers’ “bread and butter” is running the football. With the combination of Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh has a potent inside and outside attack. In the regular season, they averaged almost 139 yards on the ground, good for 5th in the NFL. In the playoffs so far, they are averaging 115 yards per game.

Pittsburgh’s passing game was ranked in the bottom third in the NFL in the regular season, but they have turned it up a few notches in the playoffs. Quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger is extremely efficient, and he proved that with the 3rd highest quarterback rating in the league.

The wide receivers, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, and Cedrick Wilson are a slightly above average group, but they all have big play ability. Tight end, Heath Miller has added a new dimension to the offense, especially in the red-zone.

The strategy for Pittsburgh offensively will be fascinating to watch. In the Indianapolis and Denver playoff games, Pittsburgh started off throwing the ball, which seemed to take the Colts and Broncos by surprise.

The question forCoach Bill Cowher is whether he will continue to go with the hot hand of Roethlisberger, or go back to his conservative nature of run-run-run. Coaches tend to play it closer to the vest early on in the Super Bowl, and Pittsburgh will likely look to establish the run first.

On defense, Seattle does not have a physically imposing d-line, but they have played the run well in the playoffs, giving up a combined total of 95 yards. Middle linebacker, Lofa Tatupu is undersized, but he has a nose for the ball, and the team has the speed to keep Parker from getting outside.

The Seattle cornerbacks, led by Marcus Trufant, should be able match up well with the Steelers’ receivers. Strong safety Michael Boulware can be an effective weapon against the run and the pass. Free safety, Marquand Manuel has filled in nicely for Ken Hamlin, and he will be looking for a game-changing interception.

When Seattle has the ball

Quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck did a great job maturing as a player this year. He had, by far, his highest quarterback rating at 98.2, and his 24 touchdown passes were the second highest of his career. More importantly, he had only nine interceptions.

Hasselbeck showed that he is smart enough now to take what the defense gives him, as opposed to forcing the ball into coverage. His reward is a starting job at the Pro-Bowl, and maybe a Super Bowl title.

With Darrell Jackson back in the lineup along with Joe Jurevicius and Bobby Engram, Seattle’s three receiver set matches up with Pittsburgh. Tight end, Jerramy Stevens had his best season on the field, and at 6’7”, he provides a great safety valve in the middle of the field when the wide receivers are covered.

Hasselbeck’s job as a signal caller is made much easier by having an MVP candidate directly behind him. Shaun Alexander is an elite back who can run up the middle of a defense, or break it outside with his tremendous speed. Alexander’s presence makes the other team’s defense respect the play-action-pass.

The strategy for Seattle offensively will be a pass-first attack. No matter how good Alexander is, he will have trouble running on Pittsburgh on first down. Coach, Mike Holmgren is a disciple of the San Francisco 49ers’ “West Coast” offense which always used the passing ability of Joe Montana and Steve Young to set up the running game of Roger Craig, Ricky Watters etc.

If Hasselbeck can get the short passing game going, it will take Steelers’ safety Troy Polamalu out of the box, and get the Steelers’ defense back on their heels. Then the Seahawks can start feeding the ball to Alexander, who won’t have to worry about the eight man front. Seattle’s offensive line, along with Alexander, is good enough to run against Pittsburgh’s seven man front.

On defense, Pittsburgh works out of the 3-4 base. The Steelers pride themselves on shutting down the opposing running back, and you can not argue with the results. Pittsburgh has only allowed one, 100 yard rusher in their last 31 games, and that was the Colts’ Edgerrin James.

The Steelers are very effective blitzing the quarterback as well, forcing poor reads that lead to interceptions. If Hasselbeck is able to make the proper adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he can have success down the field against Pittsburgh’s mediocre pass coverage.

Prediction

When the pairing of Pittsburgh and Seattle was first set after the conference championships, my first instinct was that Pittsburgh had a sizable advantage over the Seahawks.

Pittsburgh had just won three straight road playoff games, the last two over teams that were 27-5 during the regular season. Seattle had just dismantled a very physical Carolina team, but they had the easier path to the Super Bowl by playing their two playoffs games at home.

In the last 12 days or so, I have examined the teams and delved more deeply into the match-ups, and Seattle appears to be undervalued. The Seahawks’ offense is more explosive overall, and while you have to give the edge to the Pittsburgh defense, the edge is not as big as people think.

As far as the coaches go, the edge goes to Holmgren. He has won a Super Bowl before (and lost one) and he is not feeling the tremendous pressure that Cowher is. Cowher has lost a lot of big AFC championship games in the past, and his coaching decisions in those have been less than stellar.

There is also an historical perspective to this game. Seattle (15-3) has a better record than the Steelers (14-5), but are the underdog. Since the leagues merged in 1970, only five times teams with the better record were the “dog.” In four of those games, the underdog won the game outright, and in other game, they lost but covered the spread.

If Seattle covers the spread on Sunday, it would make that statistic a perfect six for six.

The Steelers are getting a lot of respect because they are in the more physical AFC conference, and they are the storied franchise. Looking at these teams from a talent perspective, and what they accomplished this year, these teams are about as even as you get.

That is why I am bucking conventional wisdom, and predicting Seattle to cover the 4.5 points.

Please contact Michael at edge@vipsports.com with any suggestions.

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