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Old 08-21-06, 09:42 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Nflx Monday Night Football

NFLX MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


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Sunday, August 20, 2006

5:00 PM PT/8:00 PM ET

Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)

Seattle +3½ over INDIANAPOLIS

A couple of NFL powers meet at the RCA Dome tonight, when the Colts host the Seahawks. It will be the second preseason game for each team, with both clubs coming off losses in their respective openers.

Peyton Manning and the first-team Indianapolis offense should see a bit more time than they did against the Rams, while the Seahawks starters can expect the same. Both teams will be shorthanded due to numerous injuries.

Seattle should have a bit more to prove than the Colts here after putting only 3 points on the board at home against Dallas last week. This is why we look to play ON teams off a poor showing from its 1st and 2nd-stringers, and we note that Seattle is 3-0 ATS over the past 3 seasons on a preseason SU loss. Indy was much more pleased with how it played, despite the 2-point loss against the Rams.

The Colts know what they have with Manning and their passing offense, which is why we expect them to focus more here on their running game, as they look to fill the void of Edgerrin James, who left for Arizona. This sets up a situation where a team is going away from its strength to work on another part of their game. A team simply doesn’t need to work its strongest stuff while ignoring its weaknesses. Meanwhile, the ‘Hawks should be a little more aggressive with their QBs and passing game, as they are looking to fill the #3 slot behind center. Obviously with Hasselbeck and Manning we have 2 of the leagues best in this game, but it’s likely the spread outcome will be decided by the backups. Here, we give Seattle a slight edge.

In what should be a close contest, the kicking game could also play a big part. Indianapolis will be without its starting punter and new kicker, Adam Venatieri, due to injury, so again we give the nod to the Seahawks.

A couple of PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX POWER SYSTEMS are also supporting a play on the visitors here. Game 2 road underdogs of more than 1 point off a home SU & ATS loss are 35-15 ATS, including 4-1 over the past 2 seasons. It was 2-1 last night with Miami and Minnesota both winning SU as road underdogs, while the Titans were clubbed at Denver. We expect a much better showing from the Hawks than Tennessee. Seattle is not giving significant time to a rookie QB who is trying to learn the pro game, and they aren’t facing a team like the Broncos that excel in exhibition play. In fact, the Colts have not lost SEVEN STRAIGHT practice outings.

Seattle also qualifies for a PERFECT preseason POWER SYSTEM that we used for another winner last night. Game 2 road/neutral site teams not favored by more than 2 points are 13-0 ATS off scoring less than 6 points in their preseason opener. It was 12-0 ATS since the late 1980s before the Jets won with ease at Washington last night.

Finally, we look to play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves. Indy opened as a 3-point favorite, only to see the line dive -1 very quickly. Since then, it’s moved back up. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move.

Just as was the case with the Redskins Saturday night, public money is pouring in on the Colts. We projected the Washington live to move off the key number of -3 yesterday before kick off, and it landed at -4 at most books. Again, we expect to see the current Colts number move, so we’ll advise waiting until shortly before kick-off to get the best number, as we like the Seahawks to keep this game within a FG margin.

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: SEATTLE 30 INDIANAPOLIS 17


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