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Friday, August 25, 2006

5:00 PM PT/8:00 PM ET

Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)

CHICAGO -3 over Arizona

The Bears host the Cardinals in Game 3 of the 2006 NFLX for both clubs. We used Chicago last week for a top-rated STAR SELECTION winner last week due to their poor play at San Francisco in Week 1. While they easily won and covered the spread against the Chargers in Game 2, the first-string attack still has not looked very crisp.

Rex Grossman and company figure to see extended time on the field against Phoenix, with running back Thomas Jones seeing his first live action of the exhibition season. Grossman has looked shaky in the two previous tune-ups, but should fare better here with a healthier receiving corps and last year’s leading team rushing leader back on the field. Brian Griese and Kyle Orton are QBs #2 & 3, giving the team tremendous QB depth and a big edge in this contest.

The Cardinals will be looking to rebound from a 30-3 loss at New England last week, another PRO INFO SPORTS STAR SELECTION winner. The Cardinals first-team offense will also see its longest game stint yet, although running back Edgerrin James will likely only be in for a series or 2. Warner threw for just 58 yards with an interception versus the Pats last week, before yielding to backups Matt Leinart and John Navarre. They didn’t fare much better and all 3 figure to struggle here against a stiff Chicago defense. On the Arizona injury front, linebacker Lance Mitchell, defensive end Bertrand Berry and linebacker Karlos Dansby will all be sidelined on Friday, weakening the Cards stop unit.

Finally, we look to play ON teams that opened as a -3', -7', or -10'-point favorite, especially the -3'. Three, seven, and ten are the top key numbers in the NFL, meaning more games end with those 3 margins than any others. Three is by far the biggest key number, as more than 16% of all football games end on that margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point higher than the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the underdog can lose by X (the key number in question) points and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the favored team will often win and cover easily in these cases. If the line has moved down to the key number or below after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the underdog.

Likewise, we like to play AGAINST teams that opened a half point below those key numbers. These strategies are a combined 7-2 ATS in the NFLX season. We have had STAR SELECTIONS in all 4 NFLX games involving these 2 teams and have gone 4-0, so we have a fairly good handle on the clubs. Despite the win last week, the Bears are still angry and hungry for more, while the Cardinals figure to suffer from a second straight long road trip in less than a week, so we like the home team to put in a strong effort on both sides of the ball and come away with a SU & ATS win. Play the game early, as the line figures to move up during the day.


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