[LSU_DAWG]

Do not miss out on my expertise in the SEC conference. Look, here is how I work: I don’t have a system. I don’t have any formulas. I just know this conference inside and out, and I use that knowledge to cap games, and I dominate.

I picked 63% ATS a season ago, and I am sitting at 45-25-1 thus far…good for 64% ATS so far. On top of that, I am 17-6 in the last 4 weeks, good for 74%!
I don’t do a star basis, but rather choose one SEC game each week as my favorite and tab it my pick of the week. Picks of the Week are 3-0 over the last 3 weeks! And I also choose EVERY SINGLE game in which an SEC team is playing. I give out my picks each Thursday in the form of a newsletter that breaks down each game and gives you some of my thoughts as to why the pick was made.

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Join our winning team today and start making money immediately for some big SEC matchups this weekend! Get my plays for big games like Arkansas/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia, Florida/South Carolina, and LSU/Alabama.

Vanderbilt + 17 vs. Florida - Several reasons for this pick. The easiest reason is that Vanderbilt is playing unlike Vanderbilt teams we’ve all known the past decade or so. They are playing very well and while Florida is #4 in the BCS and all that, they are not playing terribly well on offense right now. 28 points vs. Alabama (aided by a INT for a TD late), 23 against LSU (small total when LSU turned it over 6 times), the ugly offensive performance in a loss at Auburn, and 21 against Georgia (Vandy and Miss State managed more points against the Dawgs). Bottom line, their O isn’t clicking right now. A lot has been made about Florida’s brutal mid-season stretch on their schedule of the 4 previously mentioned games. The Gators made it through 3-1, and it’s natural that the players will all take a big deep breath now that the “stretch” is over. They’ll lay down a bit this week regardless of what they say leading up to the game. The Gators certainly have the horses to blow this thing open, but I’ll take the home team and 17 points playing well against a struggling offense any day. The line has been going in Vandy’s favor all week, so let it keep rising. Grab it just before gametime. If it sticks on 17, consider buying a half-point.

Alabama -14 vs. Mississippi State – State has been playing better, giving both UGA and Kentucky good games the last two weeks. I’ll admit that Kentucky game was closer than I anticipated and didn’t think MSU could score like that. But there is a world of difference between Bama’s defense and Kentucky’s, and Miss. State goes back on the road this week to probably take a good beating. Their team is very beat up. I’m not a big fan of Alabama this year, but I can’t imagine any scenario where they have much trouble with Mississippi State. I’m not crazy about Alabama’s offense covering big spreads, but they put up a solid number of points last week, and it’s certainly the safe and correct pick here.


Kentucky + 7 vs. Georgia – Anyone who has followed me all season knows that I have missed on Georgia a LOT. Their erratic play continues to screw me. They suck when I think they’re good, then they cover when I think they’d get blown out. So my solution for this week’s game is to simply focus on the other side of the equation: Kentucky. Kentucky has been a team I’ve liked all year, I think they are underrated, and I really like their offense. They get this game at home and Kentucky has a whole lot to play for right now, fighting for bowl eligibility. Last week’s loss to Florida puts Georgia out of any contention for SEC East titles and they are more likely to be flat. There is no question who has more talent, but Georgia has proven that they are a mid-level SEC team this year, not an upper-level team and Kentucky is in that same group. Give them a touchdown at home, and it’s a good pick. If you wanted to go Kentucky ML, I wouldn’t disagree with you either.


Auburn -31 vs. Arkansas State – Auburn’s offense isn’t doing all that hot these days either, and they had a hell of a time getting out of Oxford with a win last week. That’s normally not a good sign, but Auburn clearly didn’t take that game seriously. This offense can still hum when it gets rolling and it should have no trouble finding their signature balance of run and play-action pass against Arkansas State. Often, small schools come into games very fired up, but Arkansas State is in the middle of their own race for a conference championship and playing “spoiler” isn’t all they have going on. Auburn will re-focus after their poor performance in Oxford and Arkansas State won’t care all that much. Auburn rolls.


LSU – 3 @ Tennessee – You can call me a homer if you’d like, but I’m generally able to separate my passion for the Tigers from my picks. I HAVE picked against them this year and done so successfully. The safe play is on a Top-10 team at home getting 3 points. However, my gut feeling and a few other factors have me going the other way in this one. First, Tennessee QB Eric Ainge is injured and nobody knows just how bad. I like to look at what people do as opposed to what people say. Tennessee had Ainge have an MRI and X-rays of his ankle and he was walking around in a walking boot. He did not practice Monday or Tuesday. This tells me the injury is worse than Phil Fulmer is leading us to believe. I think Ainge will play, but he’ll be severely limited in what he can do (no rolling out, etc), and will be a target for LSU’s D-linemen, who have put a few QBs out of games this year. Aside from the Ainge factor, Tennessee hasn’t been playing all-world lately. They seem very ready for a loss and LSU is very eager to show what they can do against a top team, something they failed to do against Florida and Auburn. LSU is catching this game at the right time and Tennessee is not, and I like the Tigers on the road.


Arkansas -2 PICK OF THE WEEK @ South Carolina – Sometimes, a game like this comes along and I don’t understand how they determine the line. I thought the line was too low for Tennessee against South Carolina and I think it’s too low for Arkansas this week in Columbia. I think South Carolina is getting too much respect and Arkansas is not getting enough. We all know what Arkansas does…they run the ball and they do it well. Yes, they are one-dimensional, but nobody has stopped them yet and I don’t anticipate the Gamecocks doing it. I can definitely see this being a close game as its another night game in front of a hostile crowd, but when I think a line should be 8 points and it’s at 2, I gotta take it. Quietly, Arkansas’s defense has been pretty darn good over the last month and they should be successful against the Cocks as well.



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