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Pro Football Picks - Week 17

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Sport / Type: NFL / FREE SELECTION

Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (4:15 EST)

Prediction: OVER 46

Grade: TWO-Star

Analysis: In Sunday's regular-season finale, the NFC West-champion Arizona Cardinals try to break out of their late-season funk as they have lost four of their last five games and three of those losses came by twenty or more points. They certainly want to head into the postseason on a winning note as they host a 4-11 Seahawks team that will be playing for the last time for their head coach.

With a 26 to 20 win over Seattle on Nov. 16, Arizona improved to 7-3 and looked like a legitimate threat to make a run for the NFC championship. Very little has gone right for the Cardinals since, and they could end up in the postseason with a .500 record.

In their first meeting they just missed going “Over” the posted total as they scored 46 and the total for that game was 47. This series has seen the “Over” cash in 9 of the last 16 meetings overall. We have seen the “Over” cash at a rate of 4 out of the last 7 in Arizona and the last 2 in a row.

The Seahawks average scoring 28.8 points per game during division games and their defense has allowed 21.0 points per game in those contests. The Cardinals have been money at home this season when playing the “Over” as they have cashed in 6 of their 7 games played in the desert. The Cards average scoring 29.7 points per game at home while their defense is allowing 22.4 points per game.

Arizona boasts the fourth-best scoring offense in the league at 26.2 points per game, but managed a season-low 186 total yards in a 47-7 loss last Sunday at snowy New England. Arizona's defense has always been vulnerable, as ranks 29th with 27.0 points per game but lately it’s been almost nonexistent. It allowed an opponent season-high 514 yards last Sunday, and has yielded an average of 41.8 points in its last four losses.

SEATTLE is 10-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 13-4 OVER after winning their last two games both SU and ATS if they are now installed as a conference underdog. ARIZONA is 10-1 OVER in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 9-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 8-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games during the last 3 seasons.

Data base research has uncovered league wide systems that also back our position on the “Over” in today’s contest. We know that NFL teams off three ATS wins and now installed as underdogs of 3 to 6.5 points are 127-95-7 OVER. If they are facing a division opponent the record is 58-37 OVER. NFL Teams that have lost their last two games SU are 31-16 OVER. NFL teams that are coming in off a game where they lost both SU/ATS and went Over they are 22-9 OVER in their next game.

With strong fundamental, technical and situational support for the “Over” we will make this our NFL 2* Free Total Selection of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Seattle Seahawks / Arizona Cardinals OVER 46


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