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Saturday's FREE NCAA Football Opinion Selection

Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)

PENN ST -21 over South Florida

Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions kickoff their 2005 season on Saturday, as they host South Florida in Happy Valley. In the Bull’s final season as a member of Conference USA, they stumbled to a 4-7 mark and are now making the jump to the Big East. Penn State is looking to restore the roar for the Lions, after amassing just seven wins over the last two years combined.

Courtney Denson, an Auburn transfer, will get the start for South Florida here over incumbent Paul Julmiste, although the Bulls are expected to play these 2 and another youngster for a total of 3 QBs who should see the field in this game. Senior tailback Andre Hall is the obvious star on offense after rushing for 1,357 yards and 11 TDs a year ago. South Florida gave up more than 30 ppg defensively and close to 400 ypg last year, which should have the hungry Lions licking their collective chops.

The quarterback position has been a problem area for the Lions over the past few seasons, but Paterno is hoping that ultra-talented Michael Robinson will take command of the offense. If Robinson falters at anytime, don't be surprised to see “Joe Pa” hand the ball over to super sophomore Anthony Morelli. As usual, the Lions were stout defensively in 2004 and allowed just 15 ppg which was actually tops in the Big Ten. In fact, this was the only defensive unit in the country not to allow a single opponent to score more than 21 points in a game last year. It should only get better, as PSU returns nine starters from that outstanding unit.

Penn State represents the first of seven first time opponents on the Bulls' schedule this year. In fact, this will be South Florida's first-ever game against a Big Ten school. South Florida played two schools from BCS conferences a year ago, losing 34-3 to South Carolina and 43-14 to Pittsburgh, failing to beat the spread in either contest. Now, they are catching Penn State at a really bad time. The Lions feel they’ve finally begun to turn the corner, and are itching to unveil some new offensive tricks while making a statement to the rest of the country. The defense is a rock, but it’s the infusion of young speed merchants on offense, which is creating a stir and causing some to suggest the program is about to erupt from a two-year nap.

In looking at some numbers, we note that Penn State is 20-2 ATS when scoring 28+ points, which they figure to do here, while South Florida is 0-5 ATS in the reverse role of allowing 28+ points. The Bulls are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 SU losses, while the Lions are 8-0 ATS in SU wins when not favored by 25+ points. The Valley should be “Happy” once again, as Penn State comes out strong to start the 2005 season with a convincing SU & ATS over the Bulls.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PENN ST 37 SOUTH FLORIDA 10


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[naught33]

GL on the play, hope PSU cruises for ya