[fondybadger]

Overall MLB Record 371-353-20 -$413
April 139-135-7 +$1435
May 163-146-10 +$886
06.01 13-9 +$176
06.02 15-12-1 +$380
06.03 19-11-1 +$507
06.04 7-15 -$1324
06.05 7-10 -$1109
06.06 4-14-1 -$1584
06.25 1-0 +$108
06.26 3-1 +$112

Money Line Plays
179-178 -$2403
103-96 -$3463 (favorites)
76-82 +$1060 (dogs)

Run Line Plays
63-80 +$641
85-58 +$1415 (Hypothetical if I would have taken the ML instead of RL)

Totals
129-95-20 +$1349
42-40-6 -$1194(Under)
87-55-14 +$2543 (Over)

Brewers Record
41-30-6 +$128 (combined)
18-20-4 -$892 (sides)
23-10-2 +$1020 (totals)

TUESDAY THOUGHTS

- Carlos Zambrano has a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs are 9-7 in his 16 starts this year, but they're just 3-5 in his starts at home. Should that matter? More than likely not. If Carlos Zambrano can find the strike zone and doesn't have a meltdown the Cubs should win. Assuming their offense can manufacture a run. Zach Jackson has put in some decent outtings for the Brewers since they called him up (better then Ben Hendrickson, Jorge de la Rosa, and Dana Eveland at least). Jackson has an ERA of 4.96, but it's his WHIP of 1.776 that really worries me. On a positive note's he's allowing too many hits and they're not walks as his solid 6:2 K:BB ratio shows. The one thing that must be pointed out is that Jackson is a lefty and the Cubs are averaging 3.4 runs with a .226 average versus south paws. With those numbers there is NO REASON the Cubs should be -200. There's some value on taking the Brewers in this one in my opinion.

$50 Detroit Tigers -125 (pending)
- It's hard to bet against the Tigers this year. You really need to pick those spots, but then they're taking on The Rocket. I'm thinking it's probably prudent to fade Clemens until he has one of his stellar starts so we know he's back. Houston has a good OBP against lefties this season, and I'm thinking it's tough to take the favorite when they're going against Clemens, but you know he's not going to be pitching too deep into the game, and it's the Astro's bullpen we're talking about. I'm going to wait to see line movement on this game.

- Both Soler and Lester have pitched pretty damn good in their breif stints this year. Based on the pitching you'd think the under 10.5 would be a good play, but the Mets and Red Sox offenses are pretty tough to take an under against, especially when the pitchers have such a small sample size. I have a slight lean towards the Mets and am very interested in what others think about this game.

- Neither Philly nor Baltimore can hit lefties to save their life. If the total was 10 I'd jump all over it. As it is I have a lean towards Baltimore, but I doubt I'll play anything in this game.

$75 New York Yankees -155
- Horacio Ramirez has been absolutely awful on the road this year for the Braves. He has a 9.25 ERA and a 1.971 WHIP and is averaging less that 4 innings a start. Yankees absolutely kill lefty pitching and face it, the Braves are now one of those "name" teams that get more respect than they deserve.

- I think Toronto is overvalued as Burnett hasn't proved much for Toronto so far. I think Washington might be one of those value bets (ala Milwaukee and Colorado Monday night), but I'll probably stay off of the Nats.

- Florida is en fuego, but I've got a man crush on Scott Kazmir. Going to wait on the line movement. I also think that Nolasco is going to give up more than a few runs in this one, so I'll take a stronger look at the over 8 on Tuesday afternoon.

$75 Chicago White Sox -160
- I wanted to take the RL in this game but only getting 55 cents it just isn't worth it, especially with how Snell has recently pitched. Pittsburgh has been below average here against American League teams, and to be frank they suck against lefties. Buehrle should be able to handle things for a relatively easy victory.

- There might be some value on KC, definately would not take Cincy at the price it's at. Won't touch this game.

- Sabathia has been brutal lately, while Reyes has put up decent numbers for the Cardinals. I want to read a few other people's opinion on this game, but I think I'm going to be taking St. Louis.

- Lowe is 0-3 with a 7.06 ERA and a 1.534 WHIP in 5 career games against the Twins. Liriano is 6-1 with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.886 WHIP in his seven career starts. I think he might be a bit overvalued in this game as the Dodgers hit lefties pretty well. I wish the Dodgers would have won tonight, as situational I'd be all over Minnesota. That said, I'm going to hold off on this game for the time being.

- First instincts are to take Arizona, but with their struggles since the Grimsley incident it's tough to take them as a -150 favorite even with Webb on the mound. He's pitched pretty solidly in his last 3 games with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.525 WHIP, but he's lost all 3 of those games. Washburns ERA is 6.35 in his last 3 starts, but Seattle is 10-2 in interleague play at +140 there might be some value. Would really like to discuss this game.

- Don't really have too many thoughts on Oakland and SD, but gut instinct tells me this game goes over the 7.5 total.

- Colorado at +115 with Aaron Cook on the mound looks pretty solid. Angels struggle getting the offense going at home and it wasn't too long ago people were talking about Jeff Weaver being DFA.

- Texas/SF game has a great number at a pk. It's a complete toss up in my mind. Just like the total is at 8.5, as pitching says under, hitting/stadium say over to me. Won't touch anything in this game.

RECAP:
$50 Detroit Tigers -125 (pending)
$75 New York Yankees -155$75 Chicago White Sox -160

Strong Leans:
Tampa Bay -110
St. Louis -125

Average Leans:
Milwaukee +190
Washington +190
Colorado +115
Seattle +140
Minnesota -155
Oak/Seat OVER 7.5

[fondybadger]

Final Card
$50 Cubs/Brewers OVER 8
$50 Brewers +190
$50 Detroit -135
$75 New York Yankees -155
$75 Tampa Bay -115
$75 Chicago White Sox -160
$50 St. Louis -130
$100 Minnesota -160
$50 Arizona +140
$75 Colorado +115

A bit more chalk then I'd like to be laying. Good luck tonight.

[naught33]

GL tonight man....hope ur plays are cashing, didnt have time to look at the card today