[fondybadger]

Overall MLB Record 431-409-22 -$443
April 139-135-7 +$1435
May 163-146-10 +$886
June 91-92-4 -$2490
7.01 6-5 -$133
7.02 3-1 +$425
7.03 3-8-1 -$709
7.04 14-12 +$194
7.05 12-10 -$51

Money Line Plays
210-213 -$3119
130-121 -$3850 (favorites)
85-96 +$731 (dogs)

Run Line Plays
72-86 +$1298
94-64 +$1560 (Hypothetical if I would have taken the ML instead of RL)

Totals
144-106-22 +$1378
98-61-15 +$2860 (Over)
46-45-7 -$1482 (Under)

I'm going to have an early grave if I keep playing this many games a day. For my mental well being alone I need to cut it back. LOL

Thursday Plays

$200 Florida/Washington OVER 9
- The first thing I can say is this series is going to be the end of me. It's just my luck it's the only early afternoon game. That said, runs should be the word of the day. Anibal Sanchez has made two appearances over the AA level. In his MLB Debut on June 25th, he went 5 2/3 innings, shutting out the NYY. From what I read the performance wasn't overly impressive, but he was "lucky" to get out of some situations. On July 1st, Sanchez filled in for Brian Moehler after he was injured he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. In his last three starts Livan Hernandez has given up 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings (one outting was 1.2 IP giving up 6 runs). His two most recent outtings he's given up 3 ER's in 7 IP and 6 IP, but he's been averaging allowing 8 hits and 3.5 BB's in those two starts while striking out 3. Seven out of eight games in this series this season have gone OVER the total.

$150 Houston -115
- St. Louis is 1-5 as a road dog of +100 to +125, while Houston is 8-2 at home with those same numbers. St. Louis offensive numbers are better, but they've been down a bit lately. The major difference in this game is in the starting pitching. Sidney Ponson has been awful lately. He's got a 9.45 ERA with a 2.026 WHIP (13.3 IP) with the team going 0-3. Taylor Buchholz has a 2.79 ERA with a 0.673 WHIP (19.3 IP) with the team going 2-1. I expect Taylor to pitch when, I'm a bit concerned that Houston won't be able to do anything again, similar to the output they put up for Oswalt last night. I think Ponson is so bad, that they'll be able to get a few and Buchholz will be able to keep things in control.

Looking to Parlay Mets -185 with a team or two...

Possible Plays - Please Discuss...
Cincinnati +165 (OVER 10)
- Cincy 5 game losing streak
- Cincy 8-1 on Thursday's
- Cincy 3-1 as road underdog of +150 to +175
- Atlanta 2-7 on Thursday's
- Cincy .251 road AVG (scoring 4.9 runs)
- Atlanta .280 home AVG (scoring 4.8 runs)
- Awful Cincy bullpen... Braves actually have more BSV and higher Whip...
Season Pitching
- Cincy's Joe Mays 9.61 ERA, 2.222 WHIP (34.7 IP) team record 2-6
- Altanta's Tim Hudson 4.57 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (114.3 IP) team record 10-8
Last 3 games Pitching
- Mays 7.54 ERA, 2.303 WHIP (14.3 IP) team record 1-2
- Hudson 9.20 ERA, 2.454 WHIP (14.7 IP) team record 0-3

Milwaukee -160
- Cubs are 0-7 on Thursdays
- Brewers 3 game winning streak (are 5-2 vs. Cubs this year)
- Cubs averaging around .300 OBP across the board
- Cubs average 3.9 runs on road, 3.7 versus lefties w/ .240 AVG
- Brewers average 4.6 runs, .258 AVG versus righties
- Cubs bullpen is better than Brewers based on ERA, Sv% similar
Season Pitching
- Greg Maddux 5.00 ERA, 1.313 WHIP (104.3 IP) Team Record 7-10
- Chris Capuano 3.45 ERA, 1.217 WHIP (120 IP) Team Record 12-6
Last 3 starts
- Maddux 5.76 ERA, 1.230 WHIP (20.3 IP) team record 0-3
- Cappy 4.26 ERA, 1.421 WHIP (19 IP) team record 2-1
Home/Road Splits
- Maddux 6.28 ERA, 1.453 WHIP, team record 3-6 on road
- Cappy 2.98 ERA, 1.094 Whip, team record 8-1 at home

I'll be back with my American League thoughts and plays shortly.

GOOD LUCK TO YA'S TODAY!

[fondybadger]

I forgot one thing I wanted to add on my National League thoughts... On June 26th, Cappy defeated Maddux in Chicago 6-0 (line was -120 Milwaukee).

$175 Yankees +100
- I like getting Randy Johnson as a favorite, especially when I feel NY still has the better lineup and Cleveland is 20-33 in night games. The Yankees have been feasting on lefty pitching this season scoring 5.8 runs a game while batting at a .298 clip with a .381 OBP. RJ has a 4.95 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP in his last three (20 IP). NYY is 1-2 in his starts. On July 1st RJ got roughed up a bit giving up 8 runs in six innings. Cliff Lee has a 3.20 ERA with a 1.474 WHIP (19.7 IP) and the Indians are 3-0 in his previous starts. Looking at their respective career numbers Johnson is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.205 WHIP against the Indians, while Cliff Lee is 2-2 with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.518 WHIP against the Yankees.

$100 Toronto -145
- KC on a mini winning streak again. Fading the All-Star Mark Redman today with a hot Ty Taubenheim on the mound, and a Toronto offense that loves lefty pitching.

Possible Plays - Please Discuss...
Baltimore +190
- Baltimore scoring 4 runs, hitting .250 (.307 OBP) on the road
- CWS scoing 6 runs, hitting .284 (.353 OBP) at home
Season Pitching
- Russ Ortiz 7.34 ERA, 2.297 WHIP (27 IP) Baltimore is 2-5
- Javier Vazquez 8.00 ERA, 1.833 WHIP (101.3 IP) CWS is 10-6
Last 3 starts
- Ortiz 7.82 ERA, 2.607 WHIP (12.7 IP) Balt 1-2
- Vazquez 8.00 ERA, 1.833 WHIP (18 IP) CWS 2-1
I just feel that with as bad as Vazquez has pitched lately there might be some value on Baltimore. The over looks like it could be a good play based on these numbers too...

Also thinking I'm going to add this parlay

$150 Parlay to win $498
NY Mets -175
Toronto -145
Milwaukee -160

[naught33]

GL today...not sold on milw tonight, coming off the 13 inning loss last night and having to travel, albeit not that fare, could be a good spot to be getting the cubs are great + money.....balt/cws i wouldnt play balt, ortiz is terrible, but then again so is vasquez i like the over 11 personally there....

[AUTIGER]

Originally Posted by fondybadger

Cincinnati +165 (OVER 10)
- Cincy 5 game losing streak
- Cincy 8-1 on Thursday's
- Cincy 3-1 as road underdog of +150 to +175
- Atlanta 2-7 on Thursday's
- Cincy .251 road AVG (scoring 4.9 runs)
- Atlanta .280 home AVG (scoring 4.8 runs)
- Awful Cincy bullpen... Braves actually have more BSV and higher Whip...
Season Pitching
- Cincy's Joe Mays 9.61 ERA, 2.222 WHIP (34.7 IP) team record 2-6
- Altanta's Tim Hudson 4.57 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (114.3 IP) team record 10-8
Last 3 games Pitching
- Mays 7.54 ERA, 2.303 WHIP (14.3 IP) team record 1-2
- Hudson 9.20 ERA, 2.454 WHIP (14.7 IP) team record 0-3
!

I am going to the game tonight, to watch The AUBURN grad Tim HUDSON hopefully get a victory! Its also John Smoltz Statue night. GO BRAVES

[AUTIGER]

Originally Posted by naught33

GL today...not sold on milw tonight, coming off the 13 inning loss last night and having to travel, albeit not that fare, could be a good spot to be getting the cubs are great + money.....balt/cws i wouldnt play balt, ortiz is terrible, but then again so is vasquez i like the over 11 personally there....

Milw won 6-5 in 13.

[Tommy]

Hit em hard tonight Nick!

[fondybadger]

Milwaukee was also at home the last two nights....

FINAL CARD:
Winner $200 Florida/Washington OVER 9
$150 Houston -115
$175 Yankees +100
$100 Toronto -145

Newly Added:
$50 San Diego +130
$75 Cincinnati +180
$75 Cincy/Atl OVER 10
$100 Milwaukee -165
$50 Milwaukee OVER 8

[naught33]

oops, shows what i know...GL tonight man

[QuickNick]

BOL tonight Nick!! I like Milwaukee tonight, they always give the Cubs fits and Cauano has been on fire!!! Not to mention Maddux started off 5-0 and since has gone 2-9.