[Tommy]

MLB Baseball Trends

Tuesday, May 10th

National League:

Houston Astros at Florida Marlins, 7:05 EST
Brandon Backe (R) vs. Brian Moehler (R)

Backe - 9-3 TSR in night games over the last 2 seasons
Moehler - 51-30 Under against NL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 EST
Brian Lawrence (R) vs. Brandon Claussen (L)

Lawrence - 14-3 Over on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons
Claussen - 0-11 TSR in night games over the last 2 seasons

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, 8:05 EST
Vicente Padilla (R) vs. Gary Glover (R)

Padilla - 3-1 TSR vs. Milwaukee with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP
Glover - Milwaukee 27-14 Under on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 EST
Kris Benson (R) vs. Greg Maddux (R)

Benson - 5-10 TSR vs. Cubs with an ERA of 5.04 and a WHIP of 1.482
Maddux - 18-7 TSR vs. Mets with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.021

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:10 EST
Scott Erickson (R) vs. Matt Morris (R)

Erickson - Los Angeles 35-22 Over on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons
Morris - St. Louis 41-12 with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, 8:35 EST
John Thompson (R) vs. Jason Jennings (R)

Thompson - Atlanta 75-57 Under against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons
Jennings - 14-2 TSR at home when the total is 12 to 12.5 since 1997

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 EST
Tony Aramas (R) vs. Shawn Estes (L)

Aramas - 14-2 Under in May games since 1997
Estes - 47-19 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 EST
David Williams (L) vs. Brett Tomko (R)

Williams - n/a
Tomko - n/a

American League:

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 EST
Brad Radke (R) vs. Erik Bedard (L)

Radke - 24-7 Under as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1
Bedard - Baltimore 9-1 Under at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, 7:05 EST
Kirk Saarloos (R) vs. Bronson Arroyo (R)

Saarloos - Oakland 20-10 Under this season
Arroyo - Boston 94-39 in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons

Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:05 EST
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Roy Halladay (R)

Greinke - Kansas City 0-11 in home games when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season
Halladay - 7-2 TSR with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.339 WHIP

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, 7:05 EST
Aaron Sele (R) vs. Chien Ming-Wang (R)

Sele - 79-44 TSR in the first half of the season since 1997
Wang - Yankees 5-14 in the first half of the season since 1997

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 7:15 EST
Jose Contreras (R) vs. Mark Hendrickson (L)

Contreras - White Sox 14-3 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season
Hendrickson - Tampa Bay 6-22 after batting .290 or better over a 20 game span since 1997

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, 8:05 EST
Jason Johnson (R) vs. Chan Ho Park (R)

Johnson - 1-12 TSR as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons
Park - 16-6 TSR after walking 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings since 1997

Cleveland Indians at Anaheim Angels, 10:05 EST
C.C. Sabathia (L) vs. Paul Byrd (R)

Sabathia - 3-5 TSR vs. Angels with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.447 WHIP
Byrd - 0-5 TSR in home games after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons

[Tommy]

Hot pitchers
-- Moehler has a 2.70 RA in his three '05 starts.
-- Brewers scored 18 runs in winning Glover's last 3 starts (2-0, 5.51)
-- Maddux is 1-0, 3.46 in his last four starts.
-- Morris is 2-0, 2.63 in his four '05 starts.
-- Braves won last three Thomson starts (2-0, 2.05)
-- Williams is 2-0, 2.13 in two road starts for Pirates.

-- Bedard is 3-0, 0.39 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Halladay is 2-2, 3.43 in his last five starts.
-- White Sox are 4-1 in Contreras' last five starts; he is 1-0, 1.53 in his last three outings.
-- Rangers scored 33 runs in winning Park's last three starts (2-0, 4.15).
-- Sabathia is 2-1, 2.59 in his four 2005 starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Backe is 0-2, 9.72 in three road starts; home side is 6-0 in his starts this season.
-- Lawrence is 0-2, 12.34 on the road. Claussen has a 11.42 home RA, he is 0-2, 12.92 in his last two starts.
-- Padilla is 0-4, 10.34 in four starts this season.
-- Benson threw 88 pitches, allowed two runs in 4.2 IP in his first 2005 start, vs Philadelphia.
-- Erickson is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.
-- Jennings has a 5.49 RA in three home starts.
-- Estes is 1-3, 4.44 in his last four starts. Armas makes his first 2005 start for Washington.
-- Fassero will probably go four innings or so; he was 3-8, 5.51 in twelve spot starts last season.

-- Twins are 0-3 on road with Radke (0-2, 5.06)
-- Saarloos is 0-2, 7.03 in his last five starts.
-- Royals scored eight runs in losing all six of Greinke's starts; he is 0-2, 5.02 in three road starts.
-- Sele is 1-3, 5.98 in his last four starts. Wang is 0-1, 4.73 in his first two major league starts.
-- Johnson is 1-2, 7.07 on the road this season.
-- Byrd is 1-1, 5.49 in three home starts.


Totals
-- Under is 6-1 in last seven Marlin home games.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven San Diego road games.
-- Under is 5-1 in last six Phils' road games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Cub games, 3-1 in last 4 Maddux starts.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Cardinal games.
-- Over is 4-0 in last four Atlanta road games.
-- Under is 8-2 in last ten National games.
-- Over is 3-1 in last four Williams starts.

-- Under is 6-1 in last seven Oriole home games.
-- Under is 6-1 in last seven Boston games, 4-1 in last five Oakland road games.
-- Under is 8-1 in last nine Bronx home games, 7-1 in last eight Seattle road games.
-- Under is 5-0 in last five starts for both Halladay and Greinke.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven White Sox games.
-- Under is 7-1 in last eight Detroit games, 7-2-1 last ten Texas games.
-- Under is 8-1 in last nine Angel games, 7-3 in last ten Cleveland road games.

Hot teams
-- Marlins are 7-4 in last eleven home games, but lost their last two, scoring just five runs.
-- Padres won eight of last ten games.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.
-- Mets won seven of their last nine games.
-- Braves won five of six and 13 of last 17 games.
-- Nationals won seven of their last ten games.
-- Pirates won five of their last seven games.


-- Twins won four of last five games. Orioles are 7-3 in their last ten home games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Bronx won their last three games (5-0,6-0,4-3).
-- White Sox are 13-5 on road.
-- Rangers won five of last seven games. Detroit is 9-4 in last thirteen road contests.

Cold teams
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 12 road games.
-- Reds lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Brewers lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Cardinals lost four of last six home games.
-- Rockies won last two games after 10-game skid.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Giants lost four of last six games.


-- A's lost six of last seven games, outscored 24-5 in their last three games.
-- Seattle lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Royals lost 18 of last 22 games, 6 of last 7 on road.
-- Tampa Bay lost three of their last four games.
-- Angels scored two runs in their last three games.

Umpires
-- Favorite won last five Tschida games. (Hst-Fla)
-- Under is 2-0-2 in last four Davis games (SD-Cin)
-- Underdog is 4-3 in Marquez games, with three of last four going over the total. (Phil-Mil)
-- Home side won last four Wolf games, with three of last four going over the total. (NYM-Chi)
-- Demuth's last three games went over total. (LA-StL)
-- Favorites, over are 4-1 in Timmons games (Atl-Col)
-- Home team is 6-0 in Miller games. (Wsh-Az)
-- Underdog is 3-1 in Nauert games. (Pitt-SF)

-- Underdog is 4-1 in last five Reynolds tilts (Min-Balt)
-- Underdog won last three West games. (A's-Bos)
-- Home team won last six Winters games, with four of last five staying under the total (KC-Tor)
-- Road team won last three Cederstrom games, with the underdog winning three of his last five. (Sea-NYY)
-- Favorite won last four Reilly games. (CWS-Tor)
-- Home team is 0-5 in Cooper games. (Det-Tex)
-- Underdog is 4-2 in Gibson games. (Clev-Ana)