[University of Sportsbooks]

University of Sportsbooks April 3rd Picks

Chicago Cubs (-130)

The Chicago Cubs look to avoid getting swept at home in their season opening series when they host the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon.
Milwaukee starter David Bush has been a slow starter in recent seasons, as his teams are just 4-11 in all of his April starts the last three years and he has a high 5.11 ERA in those outings. More importantly, Bush has failed to record a Quality Start in his last three appearances vs. the Cubs, allowing a total of 14 earned runs in 18 innings while surrendering 21 hits and a ghastly 15 walks.
Ryan Dempster returns to the starting rotation this season after bombing as the Cubs closer last season, and we feel he is much better suited for this role. Remember that he began his career as a starter and showed great promise when he came up with the Cincinnati Reds, and we feel he will be very serviceable once he is stretched out after a few starts. He should get in five or six decent innings today, which may be good enough for the victory as long as Bush’s April woes continue.
Look for the Cubs to salvage this win to avoid the home sweep.

St. Louis Cardinals +111
(Listing Jimenez and Thompson)

St. Louis is the dog at home despite Ubaldo Jimenez’ struggles through the spring. Jimenez was great last season in the Rockies’ playoff run, but the reality is that Ubaldo doesn’t have good stuff to start the season. Brad Thompson allowed just 3 earned runs in over 12 innings of work with his 2 starts against Colorado last season. In 19.2 innings in the spring, Ubaldo Jimenez allowed 29 hits, 10 walks and 17 earned runs with an ERA of 7.78. St. Louis is 8-3 in their last 11 meetings with Colorado. St. Louis is 37-15 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 3 seasons.

Baltimore Orioles -115

There are at least two ways in which Tampa is not as 'bad' as they've been in years past. First, they've cleansed themselves by removing the word 'Devil' from their name. Secondly they've actually got a stacked lineup with the likes of veterans Carl Crawford and (new Ray) Cliff Floyd, slugger Carlos Pena, and talented youngsters BJ Upton and Evan Longoria, although the latter is starting the season in the minors. Add to those offensive sparkplugs a top 3 starting rotation of Shields, Garza, and (when soon healthy) Kazmir, and you have the makings of a very good core upon which to build. Their problem this year will likely be the same problem they had in '07 - the bullpen. Tampa's relievers weren't just the worst in baseball in 2007, they became one of the worst in MLB history with an official relief ERA of more than six runs over the course of the entire season! They haven't done much if anything to improve on that this season, adding just one significant name to bullpen, that of former All-Star closer Troy Percival and it's very unclear at this point whether he will help or hurt this struggling group of pitchers. These teams are almost exact opposites of one-another with one of Baltimore's only strong suits seeming to be their bullpen, although it's too early to tell, but the initial signs seem very promising. Baltimore may very well finish behind Tampa at the end of the season, but look for their bats to come alive against a starter (Sonnanstine) whose ERA was almost as bad last year as the aforementioned worst bullpen in baseball. Let's not annoint the Rays a playoff team just yet. Take Baltimore.

NY Yankees -152 (Listing McGowan and Hughes)

After going down 5-2 to Toronto yesterday, I like the Yanks to bounce back to win the series tonight. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series, 1-4 in McGowan's last 5 road starts, and 0-5 in McGowan's last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Yankees are 5-0 in Hughes' last 5 starts and 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. American League East. The Yankees are also 7-2 in their last 9 games following a loss.