[Tommy]

Monday, July 18th

National League:

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, 7:05 EST
Byung-Hyun Kim (R) vs. Tony Armas (R)

Kim - Colorado 2-18 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season
Armas - Washington 10-2 Under vs. Colorado over the last 3 seasons

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 EST
Brandon Backe (R) vs. Dave Williams (L)

Backe - 11-3 TSR in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons
Williams - 0-4 TSR vs. Houston with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.448 WHIP

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 EST
Jerome Williams (R) vs. Brandon Claussen (L)

Williams - Cubs 42-25 Under when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons
Claussen - 0-2 TSR vs. Cubs with a 10.38 ERA and a 1.961 WHIP

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:10 EST
Victor Santos (R) vs. Matt Morris (R)

Santos - 0-8 TSR vs. teams with a winning record this season
Morris - St. Louis 12-0 after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season

Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 EST
Jason Vargas (L) vs. Mike Gosling (L)

Vargas - Florida 12-2 Over in July
Gosling - Arizona 23-53 against left-handed starters over the last 2 seaso

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 EST
Jorge Sosa (R) vs. Kevin Correia (R)

Sosa - Atlanta 52-38 Under against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons
Correia - San Francisco 5-1 at home vs. Atlanta over the last 3 seasons

American League:

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians, 7:05 EST
Daniel Carrasco (R) vs. Cliff Lee (L)

Carrasco - Kansas City 5-22 in road games in night games this season
Lee - 30-16 TSR on a grass field over the last 2 seasons

Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Boston Red Sox, 7:05 EST
Scott Kazmir (L) vs. Wade Miller (R)

Kazmir - 2-11 TSR in night games this season
Miller - Boston 67-12 as a home favorite of -200 or more over the last 3 seasons

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, 8:05 EST
Sean Douglass (R) vs. Orlando Hernandez (R)

Douglass - Detroit 1-7 vs. White Sox this season
Hernandez - White Sox 30-5 against division opponents this season

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, 8:05 EST
Kevin Brown (R) vs. Ricardo Rodriguez (R)

Brown - Yankees 14-23 when the total is 10 or higher this season
Rodriguez - Texas 42-28 against right-handed starters this season

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, 8:10 EST
Erik Bedard (L) vs. Carlos Silva (R)

Bedard - Baltimore 8-24 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons
Silva - Minnesota 93-55 when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons

Oakland Athletics at Anaheim Angels, 10:05 EST
Kirk Saarloos (R) vs. Ervin Santana (R)

Saarloos - 6-1 TSR as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season
Santana - Angels 28-30 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons

[Tommy]

Hot pitchers
-- Morris is 2-1, 2.05 his last three starts; Cardinals are 9-2 in his last eleven starts.
-- Gosling shut Reds out for 5.2 IP in his first '05 start.
-- Braves are 5-1 in Sosa starts (2-1, 3.13). Giants won both of Correia's starts (1-0, 3.60).

-- Carrasco is 4-2, 3.51 in last nine starts, but has injury issues and may or may not start here.
-- Red Sox are 4-1 in last five Miller home starts.
-- Douglass is 2-0, 3.71 in three starts, all won by visitor
-- Twins won last seven Silva starts, scoring 46 runs in his last four outings (4-0, 4.13). Bedard was 5-0, 1.23 in his last six starts before injuring knee; he is making first start since May 21 here.
-- Texas is 4-1 in Rodriguez starts this season.
-- Saarloos is 4-1, 2.77 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Kim is 2-4, 7.71 in eight starts. Armas is 1-3, 6.65 in his last four starts.
-- DWilliams has 8.00 RA in his last four starts. Backe is 1-3, 7.55 in his last six starts.
-- JWilliams is 1-3, 5.00 in six starts this season. In his last three starts, Claussen is 0-2, 4.08.
-- Santos is 0-5, 5.63 in his last eight starts.
-- JVargas is Marlin rookie who made 18 minor league starts and was 7-4, allowing 76 hits in 108 IP, striking out 118 batters, so he's a good prospect.

-- Lee has a 7.00 RA in his last three starts.
-- Tampa is 1-7 in last eight Kazmir starts; he has a 7.20 mark in his last two starts.
-- Hernandez has 9.47 RA in his last four starts.
-- KBrown makes first start since June 10; he was 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts.
-- ESantana is 2-3, 8.86 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Seven of Kim's eight starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2 in DWilliams' last eight starts.
-- Over is 8-2 in last ten Cincinnati home games.
-- Under is 14-1-1 in last sixteen Santos starts.
-- Last six Arizona home games all stayed under.
-- Last five San Francisco home games stayed under.

-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Lee starts.
-- Over is 19-8 in last 27 Tampa Bay road games.
-- Last four Hernandez starts all went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Baltimore road games.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Texas home games.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve Saarloos starts.


Hot teams
-- Colorado is pathetic 7-36 on road this season.
-- Reds are 17-10 in last 27 home games. Cubs won six of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games. Cardinals are 9-3 in their last dozen home games.
-- Giants are 6-3 in their last nine games.


-- White Sox won their last ten games that weren't with the A's (1-5 vs Oakland); they're 11-5 in last 16 at home
-- Tigers won five of their last six road games.
-- Bronx won ten of their last twelve games. Texas won 18 of its last 24 home games.
-- A's are 8-3 in last eleven road games, and are 30-12 since Bobby Crosby got healthy.


Cold teams
-- Nationals lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Houston is 0-3 since All-Star break, scoring five runs. Pirates lost four of their last five games.
-- Arizona lost eight of last ten home games. Florida lost six of last seven games, allowing 64 runs.
-- Braves are 2-4 in their last six games.

-- Indians lost their last six home games. Royals lost ten of last thirteen road games.
-- Tampa is 11-36 on road, but did just win three of four in Toronto over weekend.
-- Orioles lost nine of last eleven road games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of last ten home games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Angels lost their last four home games, yielding 33 runs