[Tommy]

Sunday, July 31st

National League:

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, 1:05 EST
Josh Fogg (R) vs. John Smoltz (R)

Fogg - Pittsburgh 18-58 as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons
Smoltz - Smoltz 31-6 TSR as a favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997

Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins, 1:05 EST
Livan Hernandez (R) vs. Brian Moehler (R)

Hernandez - 10-2 TSR as an underdog this season
Moehler - 3-8 TSR as a favorite of -110 or higher this season

New York Mets at Houston Astros, 2:05 EST
Kazuhisa Ishii (L) vs. Roy Oswalt (R)

Ishii - Mets 7-16 in road games with double revenge this season
Oswalt - 14-3 TSR as a favorite of -110 or higher this season

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, 2:05 EST
Noah Lowry (L) vs. Chris Capuano (L)

Lowry - San Francisco 28-13 Under in road games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 3 seasons
Capuano - 8-2 TSR in day games this season

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 EST
Brandon Webb (R) vs. Greg Maddux (R)

Webb - Arizona 51-32 in road games after a one run win since 1997
Maddux - 1-8 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, 3:05 EST
Jon Lieber (R) vs. Jeff Francis (L)

Lieber - 64-38 TSR in day games since 1997
Francis - 0-8 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, 4:05 EST
Eric Milton (L) vs. Woody Williams (R)

Milton - Cincinnati 10-25 after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season
Williams - 20-1 TSR as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:10 EST
Mark Mulder (L) vs. Odalis Perez (L)

Mulder - 19-7 Over in road games over the last 2 seasons
Perez - 5-12 TSR after giving up 2 earned runs or less in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons

American League:

Anaheim Angels at New York Yankees, 1:05 EST
Chris Bootcheck (R) vs. Randy Johnson (L)

Bootcheck - Anaheim 10-2 Under in road games in July games this season
Johnson - 86-59 TSR in the second half of the season since 1997

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:05 EST
Chris Wilson (L) vs. Gustavo Chacin (L)

Wilson - 0-2 with 10.44 ERA last three starts
Chacin - 3-0 TSR 2.79 ERA last three starts

**Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, 8:05 ESTESPN
Freddy Garcia (R) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (R)

Garcia - 8-0 TSR on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season
Lopez - Baltimore 20-3 Under after 3 straight games where they committed no errors this season


Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, 2:05 EST
Brad Radke (R) vs. John Papelbon (R)

Radke - n/a
Papelbon - n/a

Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 2:15 EST
Jose Lima (R) vs. Mark Hendrickson (L)

Lima - 10-4 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons
Hendrickson - 8-0 Over in home games against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners, 4:05 EST
Jake Westbrook (R) vs. Joel Pineiro (R)

Westbrook - 10-2 Under against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons
Pineiro - 3-15 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, 4:05 EST
Jeremy Bonderman (R) vs. Kirk Saarloos (R)

Bonderman - Detroit 48-87 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997
Saarloos - 8-1 TSR in day games over the last 3 seasons

[Tommy]

Hot pitchers
-- Smoltz is 7-0, 1.90 in his last nine starts.
-- Oswalt is 8-1, 1.42 in his last nine starts.
-- Capuano is 7-0, 4.53 in his last eight starts. Lowry is 1-1, 1.86 in his last three starts.
-- Maddux has 2.48 RA in his last four starts.
-- Lieber has 2.14 RA in his last four starts, but Phils are 1-7 in his last eight starts, scoring total of 12 runs.
-- Perez is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts. Mulder is 4-0, 2.03 in his last six outings.

-- Johnson is 4-0, 2.97 in his last five starts. Bronx won his last nine home starts.
-- Chacin is 4-0, 2.88 in his last four starts.
-- Lopez is 2-0, 2.96 in his last four starts. White Sox are 11-2 in last thirteen Garcia starts.
-- Radke has 2.86 RA in his last three starts, but Twins are 2-6 in his last eight starts.
-- Lima is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Westbrook is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts.
-- Bonderman is 4-1, 3.00 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Fogg is 1-3, 6.03 in his last ten starts.
-- Moehler has 5.27 RA in last five starts, but Marlins scored 39 runs in winning four of the five games. Nats lost last four Hernandez starts (0-2, 3.60, 10 runs).
-- Ishii is 1-3, 5.72 in his last five road starts.
-- Webb is 0-5, 7.28 in his last six starts.
-- Francis is 1-2, 8.71 in his last four starts.
-- Milton is 1-1, 7.80 in his last three starts. Williams is 0-2, 7.13 in his last three starts.

-- Bootcheck makes start for Angels; he is 4-3, 4.72 in sixteen minor league starts, allowing 106 hits in 89.2 IP, with just 66 strikeouts.
-- Wilson is 0-2, 12.60 in three starts this season.
-- Papelbon makes first big league start for Boston; he is 6-4, 2.97 in minors, allowing 80 hits in 104.2 IP.
-- Hendrickson is 1-3, 13.50 in his last six starts.
-- Pineiro is 0-3, 7.88 in his last three starts.
-- Saarloos has 5.55 RA in his last four starts.


Totals
-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Smoltz starts.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Florida home games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Houston home games.
-- Over is 4-0-2 in last six Capuano starts.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Arizona road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Francis starts.
-- Over is 12-4 in Reds' games since the break.
-- Over is 4-1 in last five Dodger home games.

-- Under is 12-4 in last sixteen Angel games.
-- Last five Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1 in last five White Sox road games.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Fenway games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Kansas City road games, 7-0 in last seven Hendrickson starts.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Westbrook starts.
-- Over is 9-3 in last dozen Detroit road games.

[b]Hot teams[b]
-- Braves are 5-0 this week, outscoring foes, 24-16.
-- Marlins allowed four runs in winning last four games.
-- Astros won last nine home games, and 21 of last 23.
-- Giants are 10-6 in their last sixteen road games.
-- Arizona won three of last four games. Cubs are 13-6 in their last nineteen games.
-- Phillies scored 21 runs in winning last three games.
-- Reds scored 30 runs in winning their last four games.
-- Cardinals are 8-4 in last dozen road games.

-- Bronx won nine of last twelve home games.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games.
-- White Sox are 16-5 in last 21 road games.
-- Red Sox scored 28 runs, won last four games.
-- Devil Rays are 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
-- A's won ten of their last eleven games.

[b]Cold Teams[b]
-- Pirates are 4-14 in their last eighteen road games.
-- Nationals are 3-15 in their last eighteen games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Brewers lost three of their last four games.
-- Colorado is 5-10 since All-Star Break.
-- Padres lost eleven of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

-- Angels lost five of their last six games.
-- Toronto scored eight runs in last four games.
-- Orioles lost twelve of their last fourteen games.
-- Twins lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Royals lost their last four road games.
-- Indians are 7-10 since All-Star Break.
-- Mariners lost eight of last twelve games.
-- Tigers allowed 26 runs in losing last three games.

[b]Umpires[b]
-- Last three Cuzzi games stayed under total (Pitt-Atl)
-- Home side is 14-3 last 17 Tschida games. (Wsh-Fla)
-- Under is 9-4-1 last 14 Davidson games, dogs are 5-4 in his last nine games behind plate. (NY-Hst)
-- Under is 7-1 in last eight Winters games (SF-Mil)
-- Favorite is 14-2 last sixteen Timmons tilts. (Az-Cubs)
-- Last seven Culbreth games went over. (Phil-Col)
-- Over is 4-1 in last five Layne games. (StL-LA)
-- Favorite won last seven Holbrook games. (Cin-SD)

-- Dogs, under are both 6-3 in last nine Darling games (LAA-NYY)
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Hickox games (Tex-Tor)
-- Dogs are 5-1 in last six West games, with under 6-3 in his last nine games behind dish. (CWS-Balt)
-- Favorite won last five Hohn games. (Min-Bos)
-- Home side is 9-2 in last 11 Cousins games. (KC-TB)
-- Visitor is 6-2 in last eight Hernandez tilts. (Clev-Sea)
-- Under is 6-1 last seven Marquez games. (Det-A's)