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08-04-05, 02:50 PM
| #1 (permalink) |
| SCI Member  Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Germany
Posts: 499
|  8-04 Mlb ok, yankees ruined it last night for me so i have to bounce back today  Angels (Santana) 4 Units santana over lopez. you all know about the orioles  Nationals (Patterson) 3 Units  patterson Padres - Pirates Over 8.5 2 Units both pitchers suck and both teams earn and score lots of runs lately. Royals - Red Sox Over 10.5 2 Units both pitchers kinda sucks lately. nevertheless i see the red sox hammer the royals today and clement will be good for at least 4 runs. Astros - Dbacks Under 9 2 Units both pitchers with very nice pitching lately and ERAa under 3 over the last 3 games. gl  Last edited by soulchyld : 08-04-05 at 03:02 PM. |
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08-04-05, 04:38 PM
| #3 (permalink) |
| SCI Member  Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: toronto ontario
Posts: 396
| lots of luck today soul, except the O's. i am playing the birds...% in favor of dog anytime you get past a 8 game skid.
__________________ there's a fine line between heaven and hell, this morning it's 2.5 |
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08-04-05, 04:56 PM
| #4 (permalink) |
| SCI Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Germany
Posts: 499
| thx a lot guys concerning the a's pick: i really do not see any sense why to pick a shitty team just because they lost many games in a row  if they would have won their last game would you still bet on them today? that is like betting against a sweep. it makes no sense. if i do like a team better than the other i will bet on them, no matter about streaks or sweeps. "hey, the birds lost 8 in a row, they just have to win today to end their streak. and yeah, they will do it against one of the hottest teams in the league". oh well, just kidding nekbug ;D i will feel ashamed now if orioles will win  |
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08-04-05, 05:18 PM
| #5 (permalink) |
| SCI Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: toronto ontario
Posts: 396
| no problem soul. but a bit behind my thinking and cautious warning about the O's. I have had a 40+ yr love affair with the game of baseball. and if there is one thing i know about the game its this...its a game of numbers. percentages count in this game like no other. Sabermetrics couple of cases in point. Most people look at a book score or weekly team stats and see avg, or maybe oba and make a quick calculation that the pitcher wins 6 out of 10 battles with each hitter. Not so. when you factor in all the myriad of ways an out can lead to a run (fc, error, sac, dp) you will begin to see that the % is smaller...roughly about 5.5. their is an old saying in the game...teams that make their outs count win ball games. second point...the margin of difference between a good team and a marginal team is also alot smaller than alot of people assume. Play .600 ball and you win 97 games and make the playoffs. As of today only two teams above .600. Thats 4 losses per every ten. now a bad team, a really bad team plays .400 ball. Only 3 teams below that mark right now. thats 4 wins per ten. play out the percentages, good or bad its a margin of 2 per ten games. Now when any team pushes a streak W or L beyond 7 the odds of it continuing diminish significantly, exponentially with each additional game. And when you get a team in that position with a nice price as a dog your wise to stop and give a little bit of extra weight to your cap. history shows that double digit streaks are rare in b ball. 11 out of 12 or 13-15 are more common than a ten game streak. hence my play on the O's sure i could be wrong, thats the nature of a gamble, but % tilted in this case ever so slightly in my fav good luck tonight
__________________ there's a fine line between heaven and hell, this morning it's 2.5 |
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08-04-05, 05:37 PM
| #6 (permalink) |
| SCI Forum Moderator  Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY
Posts: 13,666
| GL on the plays man, hope they come in for ya!
__________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy |
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08-05-05, 01:50 AM
| #9 (permalink) |
| SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY
Posts: 13,666
| great day so far buddy, lets bring it home w that houst/az play tonight to finish it off!
__________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy |
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08-05-05, 06:56 AM
| #10 (permalink) |
| SCI Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Germany
Posts: 499
| nice call nekbug but did anyone watch that game? that was one of the worst batting performances i saw in a long time!! lopez pitching was under average and still angels could not benefit from it at all. a lot of full counts and many men left in scoring positions. angels were like 1 of 12 in scoring position. and then there was that huge error by cabrera who lost the ball on the sun. it would have been an easy out but it finished with 2 runs instead. santana was as expected very strong. but hey, i have to consider what nekbug said. take care of picking teams playing against teams with huge streaks. but anyway, how about patterson? damn he is doing great so far! he struck out 13 and lead washington to a 7-0 win. good job! well, astros finally lose one lol! 10 scored runs, damn it lol! 9 would have done it too ;D and oh yeah, colorado nearly swept the giants loooooool but earned 5 runs in the 8th inning. that has to suck. damn yankees did win one too |
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