[soulchyld]

yeah right, you read it, i lost my mind

i am going on the reds to beat cubs badly today
i did like the reds yesterday and i still see value in them today.

ok, now let's face the facts:

cubs are 11-14 overall since all star break
cubs are 6-5 at home since all star break
cubs are 3-4 at last 7 at home

reds are 15-9 overall since all star break
reds are 6-2 at road since all star break
reds are 6-0 at last 6 at road


this is a day game. prior is a good one but he got hit in his last games. in addition to that he pitches worse at day than at night!
3-0 at night and 4-4 at day. 3.03 ERA at night and 3.91 at day.

unlike harang pitches better at day than at night. 5-9 at night and 2-1 at day. 4.08 ERA at night and 3.38 at day.


cubs scored 2.8 runs over their last 5 games and did earn 6.4.
reds scored 3.6 runs over their last 5 games and did earn 4.2.

so cubs offense is gone and reds are in a slump as well. and still we have a slight favour for the reds here too.


the bullpen is pretty even for me at this time.

harang is 2-0 when starting against cubbies with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.313. he did beat prior 2-1 last year.
prior is 3-2 when starting against reds with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.014.


I see value in the reds and because i lost my 4 unit play yesterday i will keep things minimised and will bet

1 Unit on Reds (Harang)



ok, that is it for the early game. i will come back later with more plays i guess.

oh, and if i forgot, thx for reading my crap

[nekbug]

bol soul, wish i could follow you, but i cant. decided to stay away from this one

[naught33]

GL on the play..its not a crazy one, cincy pounded cubs last night, and prior has looked shaky of late...im not on it personally, but BOL

[Tommy]

GL Soul, Cubs are really playin bad right now. Nice on the Trends for this game. Hammer it home buddy

[soulchyld]

reds slaughter cubs 8-3

going with a 4-3 lead into the 9th inning the reds score another 4 runs against the struggling cubs and the game is over.

[soulchyld]

adding

Braves (Ramirez) -1,5 Runs 2 Units

i like ramirez over hennessey a lot. don't get fooled about the stats about ramirez. he has 4.73 ERA overall. but this is overall, right?
he is 6-1 at home with a 3.14 ERA! bam! he is better at night than at day too.

now hennessey has an ERA of 4.66 overall and 3.82 at road games. so these stats are not that bad either.
but a 1.74 ERA at day and 6.37 at night just give that another look.

pitcher advantage should go to atlanta as i think.


now another big point for atlanta is their home advantage. braves are 6-1 at home since all star break and giants are 6-5 at road.


swinging the bat is another huge reason for taking the braves tonight:
with a batting average of 0.318 over their last 10 games and 5.6 runs scored they do have a very nice advantage against a 0.206 batting avg and 3.7 scored runs of the giants. this difference is huge to me and i see the braves scoring a lot of runs tonight.


i see no difference in the bullpens.


so the form, the batting, the pitcher and the home advantage do speak for an easy win for the braves.

bol

[naught33]

looks like 2-0 for you tonight buddy! great call on the reds, nice dog winner there, and ATL is crushing, see you at the pay window

[soulchyld]

finally the hard work with my research does pay

i gamble for fun and with small stake only. still trying to learn and get a good rating system together for next season when i will raise my stake. so a 2-0 is always nice