[Tommy]

MLB 2009 World Series

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Philadelphia Phillies (Lee) @ NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:57 ET

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

Game 1 Odds: NY Yankees -168 | Total 7½

Series Odds: Yankees -210 | Phillies +175

Sabathia is 3-0, 1.59 in playoffs this year; he gave up three runs in eight IP vs Philly May 24, in game Phils won 4-3 (10).

Lee is 1-1, 3.00 in his two starts vs. Bronx this year, going six in each start. He is 2-0, 1.48 in three playoff starts this fall.

Phillies are 18-5 in last 23 playoff games, 7-2 this year, but the bullpen got decision in five of their last six wins.

Six of their last seven games went over total. Yankees are also 7-2 in the '09 playoffs.

[Tommy]

The Yankees open the World Series looking to build on their 10-1 record in C.C. Sabathia's last 11 home starts.

- Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games..
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.

Lee:
PHI 14-24 vs. American League.
PHI 20-9 Under after scoring 9+ runs.

Sabathia:
16-6 Under at home off team win.
NYY 69-25 as a favorite of -150 or more.

Head-to-Head Series History

PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 (+2.1 Units) against NY YANKEES this season.
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season. (Under=+3.0 Units)

CLIFF LEE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997

LEE is 4-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.02 and a WHIP of 1.538.
His team's record is 4-5 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.1 units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997

SABATHIA is 1-2 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.55 and a WHIP of 1.479.
His team's record is 1-3 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

[Tommy]

Obviously I lean towards the Phillies

By the way, 5Dimes is the best place to bet the World Series and any sport for that matter. Check it out if you don't believe me. You will be glad you did.

[Tommy]

No need to post any more info. Everyone and their mother is on the Yankees, as usual.

[Tommy]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

WORLD SERIES

Philadelphia (7-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-2)

Back in the World Series for the second straight year, the Phillies send Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA) to the Yankee Stadium mound while New York hands the ball to ace CC Sabathia (22-8, 3.17) in a Game 1 pitching matchup of ex-teammates and former Cy Young winners.

Philadelphia punched its second straight ticket to the Fall Classic with last Wednesday’s 10-4 home rout of the Dodgers in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, the second time in as many years that the Phillies beat Los Angeles in five games to advance to the World Series. Last year, the Phillies won their first world title since 1980 by beating the Rays in five games in the World Series. Meanwhile, New York needed six games to dispose of the Angels in the American League Championship Series, clinching its 40th A.L. pennant and its first since 2003 with Sunday’s 5-2 home win.

Philadelphia, which knocked out the Rockies 3-1 in the best-of-5 National League Divisional Series, is 18-5 in its last 23 playoff contests, including 6-2 on the road (3-1 this year). Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 10-3 as an underdog (8-3 as a road pup), 37-14 after an off day, 5-1 on Wednesday and 36-16 against left-handed starters. However, Philly has dropped nine of 12 interleague games, all against the A.L. East.

The Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS and have won all five of their postseason home games this month. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, sports impressive runs of 48-19 overall, 41-10 in the Bronx, 40-12 as a favorite, 43-14 on Wednesday, 37-14 against left-handed starters, 51-20 at home versus southpaws, 5-0 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-25 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven straight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 10 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.

Philadelphia went to the Bronx in late May and took two of three in a weekend interleague series. The Phillies won 7-3 and 4-3, with the Yankees rallying for a 5-4 victory in the middle game of the set, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth off Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge. Prior to this year, New York had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999, and the visitor has won six of the last eight meetings.

Lee is 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three playoff starts, all Philadelphia wins. He gave up just four runs (two earned) in 24 1/3 innings with three walks against 20 strikeouts. Since joining the Phillies in late July, Lee is 9-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 15 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.68 ERA in eight road efforts. The Phillies are 11-4 behind last year’s A.L. Cy Young winner (6-2 on the road).

Lee faced the Yankees twice this season with Cleveland. He gave up one run on six hits in a 10-2 victory in the Bronx on April 16, but six weeks later he lost 3-1 at home, yielding all three runs on nine hits in six innings. For his career, Lee is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts against New York (3-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five games at both new and old Yankee Stadium).

Like his former Indians teammate, Sabathia was flat-out dominant in the opening rounds of this postseason, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total of 22 2/3 innings – including a pair of eight-inning efforts against the Angels in the ALCS – and like Lee, he had a 20-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the playoffs.

Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 13 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.52 ERA (16 earned runs allowed in 95 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-1 in Sabathia’s last 15 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 9-0 at home and 10-1 against winning clubs.

Sabathia was on the mound on May 24 when the Yankees lost 4-3 to the Phillies. He didn’t factor in the decision, though, giving up three runs on five hits in seven innings. With the Brewers, Sabathia faced the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS last year, getting rocked for five runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings, losing 5-2. Prior to that, he faced Philadelphia twice in interleague play with the Indians – once in 2002, once in 2007 -- going 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA, meaning the Phillies are 3-1 all-time when facing Sabathia.

All three Yankees-Phillies games in New York back in May stayed under the total, and the under is 7-1 the past eight meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four in the Bronx.

As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 13-3 on the road, 4-0 after an off day, 5-1-1 in the opening game of a series and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the under is 9-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 12 interleague road games, 3-1-1 in their last five against the A.L. East and 9-4-1 in their last 14 as an underdog in interleague action.

New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 6-2-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 15-4-2 after a victory, 16-6 in interleague play, 15-6 versus the N.L. East, 7-3-1 against left-handed starters, 5-0 on Wednesday, 5-1-1 after an off day, 6-0 in World Series home games and 7-1-1 when Sabathia pitches at Yankee Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER