[fondybadger]

Overall MLB Record 179-186-8 -$287
April 139-135-7 +$1435
05.01 6-11 -$232
05.02 11-7 +$25
05.03 7-12 -$777
05.04 2-1 +$83
05.05 6-6-1 +$98
05.06 8-14 -$919

Money Line Plays
75-75 +$378
37-33 -$418 (favorites)
38-42 +$796 (dogs)

Run Line Plays
41-65 -$1139
62-44 +$365 (Hypothetical if I would have taken the ML instead of RL)

Totals
63-46-8 +$474 (o&u)
19-13-3 +$370 (Under)
44-33-5 +$104 (Over)

Brewers Record
29-15-5 +$1778 (combined)
11-11-4 +268 (sides)
18-4-2 +$1510 (totals)

It's been a rough week. Lost over $1700 and the majority of it has been on RL's. You can debate the value of RL's all you want, but I believe in playing them. Just need to figure out in what situations and I'll continue to improve on that. Looking over my plays this week, I've been consistently taking some losing teams and it's costing me; Braves, Washington, St. Louis RL's, Cincinnati, the teams are strugging and I keep going back to the well. Been taking too many RL's/faves and my money management has been horrible. Not going to beat myself up here too bad though as that won't do any good (keep saying it and I might believe it). I was so pissed off at my plays tonight, I went to the bars and DID NOT drink.

Sunday Plays
***Bit gun shy, and I'm kind of caught in that wanting to chase, but I know it's not a good idea mode...***

- Don't know enough about Mike O'Conner and I'm having trouble figuring out this Washington team. Pittsburgh is horrible on the road offensively, but Zach Duke is one of the good young pitchers in the game. I'd lean towards Washington (don't think Pitt can win 2 out of 3 in a road series) and I like the under in this one. Thinking something like 3-2 Washington or something.

$200 St. Louis -155
- What the heck am I doing? Well the first thing I'm not doing is taking the St. Louis RL. The Cardinals have shown the last two games that they haven't totally forgotten how to score runs. Florida is 2-11 at home and against teams that have a winning record. Ponson has been pitching well lately and his numbers seem similar to Scott Olsen and Florida, but Olsen's numbers are deceiving. The first thing that stands out to me is his WHIP. He has a 1.921 WHIP at home and has 15 walks in 20 innings pitched this year with only 11 strikeouts. Those numbers against a disciplined Cardinal lineup will lead to trouble. St. Louis sees lefthanded hitters pretty well and have an impressive OBP of .344 (only striking out 50 times in 331 ab's). The second thing that Olsen's numbers at a glance don't show is how early he's coming out of ball games. He's averaging 5 innings a start and has only lasted 8 and 1/3 innings in his two previous starts at home. Florida's bullpen is unreliable albeit a solid 3.97 ERA. The pen is 3-8 on the season with a 44.4% save percentage. They've walked a robust 55 batters in 90 2/3 innings of work. Also of note is if Olsen can't go deep into the ball game (which history shows he doesn't), is the work the bullpen has gotten the last two games. On Friday Dontrelle Willis lasted 4 2/3 innings and Mitre last 4 1/3 on Saturday. Looking at things, German and Herges probably will only be available for a batter or two at most as German has gone 3 innings the last two games and Herges has pitched an inning in each game (only 19 pitches total though). Wellmeyer also pitched 2 2/3 yesterday with 34 pitches. That all said, I feel comfortable taking the Cardinals.

- No Line on Atl/NYM right now, which is probably a good thing with how I've been when these teams are involved in one of my plays.

$100 Houston +115
- Can Houston get swept in Colorado? And what is it with all of these shutouts at Coors Field this year? It's making my head spin. I'd like to go a bit more on this game, but Nieve just doesn't do much for me as he's an unknown in the equation. I'm taking this game, pretty much because I don't feel as if Houston will be swept. It will also be interesting is see how things in that bullpen with Lidge and how Gardner is handling work out. Taking this because there's a good value on Houston and I don't believe they'll be swept.

$100 San Diego RL +150 (-150)
$150 Padre's/Cub's under 8.5
- I need to see some runs out of the Cubs. That's about all I can say. Their offense is looking like they're the Nats, and Woody Williams has been clutch this year with an ERA around 3, and a 2:1 K:bb ratio. Guzman's an unknown. If this total goes over, Padres score at least 8 (fingers crossed I get something right).

- Nothing on the Dodgers/Brewers game yet either (how come?)...

- Hard to bet against Arizona with their 7 game win streak going, but Hernandez is nothing to write home about. Cincinnati is really struggling to get the bats going on the road this season. Twist my arm, I say Cincy takes this game. I also think Arizona is going to shockingly struggle to hit tomorrow. So I'd look at an under play. This game I'll re-evaluate before the first pitch

$100 Philadelphia RL +150
$100 Philadelphia -135
- Looking at Matt Morris (SF) and Jon Lieber (Phi) both pitchers have struggled this year. Morris has a 5.18 ERA with a 1.424 WHIP. Lieber has a 6.87 ERA and a 1.473 WHIP. Most people would say that Matt Morris has been pitching better. I'd disagree. Morris has struggled to get ahead of hitters and he's been having to groove in some pitches. On a team like the White Sox, Morris would be putting up great numbers. Pitching for SF, you don't want to make that old team constantly have to make plays in the field. In his last 13.3 innings of work he's gave up 16 hits, walked 7, and only struck out 5. Jon Lieber's numbers are a bit more, shall we say forgivable. Overall the Phillies are 1-5 on the year. In his defense he's had a 4.95 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In those 20 innings of work he's struck out 17 and allowed only 1 walk. I'll attribute his early season struggles to pitching against the Cardinals and at Coors Field. His command is starting to increase, and Philly should be able to handle SF once again tomorrow as it looks like SF will go to their bullpen early. Thinking around a 7-3 final. Would lean towards the under, like I originally did today. Mad at talking myself out of taking the otherside. Should have been a no play.

- I believe that Toronto will win the game. That said, with Janssen facing a solid pitcher in Lackey, I just can't take them. Toronto is 11-5 against the Angels though the last 3 years if anyone cares.

- I'll wait for some feedback from the Boston boys at FBZ on the Baltimore/Boston game. Baltimore can't hit a lick against lefties so with a lefty on the mound for Boston I'd like to take them, but I've never see Lenny DiNardo pitch live to give my own impressions of him. Making his 3rd career start, and it seems like he's a gap eater out of the bullpen at best. Nothing too impressive in his resume the last few years, and he's been back and forth between AAA and MLB. When will Boston get smart and put Papelbon in the rotation where he belongs. Anyone know how Craig Hansen is coming along on his change up so they can get him into the pen?

$150 White Sox -280
- This play here you can see my head isn't on straight for. I don't know how many times I've looked at people playing big money lines and shook my head. So what am I doing? Thinking outside of the box, thats what. LOL... KC has yet to win against a lefty this year, and Mark Buehrle is one of the best. Redmen has been a joke this year and I believe not a single KC batter still has an OBP over the AVERAGE OBP in MLB.

$75 Yankees -135
- If Tejeda has another outting like he did last time, walking 6 batters in 5 innings against a lineup like the Yankees he's in BIG BIG trouble. I think that total is right where it should be as it will be a high scoring game.

$125 Minnesota/Detroit under 7
- Neither team can hit lefties. Maroth and Santana are two of the better lefties in the AL so far this year. You do the math. Hopefully one of the guys don't self destruct, but the numbers say, "PLAY ME, PLAY ME..."

- I'll look at TB/Oak & Cle/Seat before their game times. Doubt I'll have a writeup on either.

RECAP:
$200 St. Louis -155
$100 Houston +115
$100 San Diego RL +150 (-150)
$150 Padre's/Cub's under 8.5
$100 Philadelphia RL +150 (-135)
$100 Philadelphia -135
$150 White Sox -280
$75 Yankees -135
$125 Minnesota/Detroit under 7

***So what did I do with my card? Played all big favorites again... Yeah Nick, if it didn't work all week, why stop now? (shakes head)... Got to love it!

[fondybadger]

Not sure why there isn't a line on the Brewer's/Dodger's game. Without knowing what the line/total will be, this is what I'm thinking. First, the Brewers will win this game. Anything under -150 Milwaukee and I'll have at least $200 on the game. I'm thinking it will be right around that though. As for the total it has been 7 and 7.5 -- Today you have Sheets on the mound... You'd assume it will be around that again. I'll be playing the over with a number of 8 or less.

So why am I thinking along those lines? Well in 30 IP this year Odalis Perez has 23 ER, 41 Hits, 10 BB, and 17 K's... Not very good if you want to keep your job. Ben Sheets numbers aren't much better. He's allowed 15 ER in 20.3 innings, but he's struck out 28 and has only walked 1. His numbers are definately inflated from his last outting. So what's my take on that game? He just didn't have it. He had a dead arm, as he didn't have spring training coming back from injuries. I look for him to bounce back in this game and keep the Dodgers in check (hopefully Nomar doesn't have another game winning hit).

As for the offenses... The Brewers have been scoring 6.8 runs with a .324 avg and a .403 OBP against lefty starters... I just shake my head at that number. Dodgers are scoring 4 runs with a .233 avg and a .320 OBP against righties. I'll take the Brewers bullpen aginst the Dodgers, mainly for the fact that the Brewers under Mike Maddux have been challenging hitters and they don't give that free path to first base.

I don't think the Brewers will get swept. Fate was working against them in their first two games as they lost on Nomar game winning hits the last two nights. On Friday night, the team was dealing with bench coach Robin Yount being hospitalized with a virus (one that I had just read has been effecting some players) and on Saturday the Brewers had to send out Ben Hendrickson out against Brad Penny in Ben's first start of the year. Was tough all around, but now things look like they're lining up in this one for a solid Brewer victory. I'm thinking the final is 6-2 Brewers, but I will take the OVER if it's at 8, as the bullpens might give up a junk run late.

[naught33]

GL today fondy...STL is a must play, esp against fla...fla is horrid, esp at home thusfar, STL off to a good start, ponson pitching pretty well..i like em too....yanks bats are alive, wang the better pitcher yanks should route texas today....also like the cws bet, not much to say here, its cws vs kc, lol GL bro

[fondybadger]

Ben Sheets will miss Sunday's start with stiffness in his pitching shoulder, according to the AP. "It's stiffness in the front of his shoulder, which is not a serious thing. So instead of battling through what we battled through last time, we thought we'd give him an extra day, hoping that the five days would make him feel better," manager Ned Yost said. "Guys play sore and they play hurt. If it jeopardizes their career, they don't play. But Ben's career is not being jeopardized in the least." David Bush was moved up in the rotation to start for Sheets. Sheets will likely just switch turns in the roation with Bush, which mean's he would make his next start on Thursday.

$100 Brewers -125
$75 Arizona -125
$125 Zona/Cincy under 11 (-130)
$100 Boston -120 (game has started)
$75 Tampa Bay under 9.5
$50 Tampa Bay +140
$125 Clevleand -115

No play on the Brewers total... Bush vs. Sele... ARGH... Just got home and I don't have enough time to get into it.

[fondybadger]

$100 Philly/SF OVER 9 (-130)

[Tommy]

BOL tonight Nick