Week 7, Day 1, rain and snow and a bet on the under

Ernie_Money · 10-09-06, 04:06 PM

They are calling for rain and snow tonight.

Baltimore/Denver under 33, laying $102 to win $100

Reasoning:

Now I saw a post where there was a big snow storm a few years back at Denver on a Sunday night game when they played the Raiders, and I do remember that game going Over. But does that game really compare to tonight's game? Did the Raiders have a good defense? Was Denver's defense anywhere near as good then as it is now? I realize with sloppy conditions, the offense has an edge because "the runners/receivers know where they are going" and it's much tougher on the defnese to keep good footing when they are in constant reactionary mode. But Denver has a good run defense, which should neutralize Lewis. Denver held the St. Louis offense to zero TDs at STL, despite 5 turnovers and giving STL the ball numerous time deep in Denver territory. The Broncos also held KC to zero TDs. and lastly, they held NE to 7 points at NE. This defense is good. Their offense has been subpar all 3 games and everyone knows the Ravens defense is awesome. With the bad weather, the coaches will be conservative with the play-calling against these defenses and this will be a field-position game where both coaches will probably let their defense try and win this game, figuring whoever can play mistake-free football will probably win. Unless there are 2 or 3 defensive TDs and numerous big plays broken, this should stay under.

Week 6: 5-1, +$750
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913

Tommy · 10-09-06, 04:13 PM

I really see a low scoring game here, weather or not. The Ravens have a good defense and Denver is nasty at home on D as well. Should be a low scoring, tight fisted affair tonight. At least I'm hoping.

Eaglesfan · 10-09-06, 05:23 PM

Its cold enough to snow in Denver? I hope so Football better in the snow i like the under too gL

naught33 · 10-09-06, 09:21 PM

not sure bout snow but it is raining, looking good for the under so far

FNGinFL · 10-13-06, 03:17 PM

I looked at that low number and immediately thought Over. Weather be damned. Wish I had seen this first... Good job.

10-09-06, 04:06 PM	#1 (permalink)
Ernie_Money SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 48	Week 7, Day 1, rain and snow and a bet on the under They are calling for rain and snow tonight. Baltimore/Denver under 33, laying $102 to win $100 Reasoning: Now I saw a post where there was a big snow storm a few years back at Denver on a Sunday night game when they played the Raiders, and I do remember that game going Over. But does that game really compare to tonight's game? Did the Raiders have a good defense? Was Denver's defense anywhere near as good then as it is now? I realize with sloppy conditions, the offense has an edge because "the runners/receivers know where they are going" and it's much tougher on the defnese to keep good footing when they are in constant reactionary mode. But Denver has a good run defense, which should neutralize Lewis. Denver held the St. Louis offense to zero TDs at STL, despite 5 turnovers and giving STL the ball numerous time deep in Denver territory. The Broncos also held KC to zero TDs. and lastly, they held NE to 7 points at NE. This defense is good. Their offense has been subpar all 3 games and everyone knows the Ravens defense is awesome. With the bad weather, the coaches will be conservative with the play-calling against these defenses and this will be a field-position game where both coaches will probably let their defense try and win this game, figuring whoever can play mistake-free football will probably win. Unless there are 2 or 3 defensive TDs and numerous big plays broken, this should stay under. Week 6: 5-1, +$750 Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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10-09-06, 04:13 PM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	I really see a low scoring game here, weather or not. The Ravens have a good defense and Denver is nasty at home on D as well. Should be a low scoring, tight fisted affair tonight. At least I'm hoping.
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10-09-06, 05:23 PM	#3 (permalink)
Eaglesfan SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 2,054	Its cold enough to snow in Denver? I hope so Football better in the snow i like the under too gL __________________ *ALL NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL WAGERS* **1= $100 2=$200 3= $300 4*=$400* *NFL YTD 6-4 +$60* *Teaser 2-2 +64* *COLLEGE FOOTBALL YTD 9-3 +$820* *Teaser 1-1 +90* *NHL 3-4 -$280*
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10-09-06, 09:21 PM	#4 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	not sure bout snow but it is raining, looking good for the under so far __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
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10-13-06, 03:17 PM	#5 (permalink)
FNGinFL SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Sunny FL Posts: 11	I looked at that low number and immediately thought Over. Weather be damned. Wish I had seen this first... Good job.
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