[Tommy]

Bengals (3-1) @ Buccaneers (0-4)- Tampa averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt in Gradkowski's first NFL start, after averaging 3.1/ 5.8/5.6 in Simms' three starts, so Toledo rookie passed his first test, but Bucs have given up 24+ points in three of four games, and have been outscored 61-17 in first half this season. Bengals off bye; they already have wins at Arrowhead and Heinz, two of NFL's toughest places to win, and have picked off seven passes in four games. Red flag for Cincy is 406 rushing yards they allowed in last two games. Bucs ran ball for 187 yards in loss at Saints, after running ball for total of 130 yds in first three games.

Titans (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)- Tennessee scoring just 12 ppg, but they've had chance to win/tie in last 2:00 in three of their five losses- they held Colts scoreless in first half last week. Portis could have big day vs Titan run defense that allowed 192.8 rushing yds per game last four weeks, but with erratic nature of Redskin offense (31,36 pts in wins; 16,10,3 in losses), hard to tell if Brunell can make plays passing if Titans stack the run. In five games, Tennessee has been outscored 27-0 on first drive of third quarter, allowing very poor 60.2 yds/drive. This will be first time this year Redskins face a mobile QB.

Texans (1-3) @ Cowboys (2-2)- Houston got first win in last game before their bye, but have allowed 13 TDs on 35 drives (37.1%, worst) and forced just three turnovers, so chance for Bledsoe to silence critics who want Romo in game despite never having seen him play. Dallas has run ball for 167 yds/game over last three games, so they have balance; Cowboys allowed 10,14 pts in their wins, 24,38 in losses. Texans averaging 16.5 ppg, and got drilled 43-24 in only road game so far (@ Indy). Houston yet to gain 300+ yards in game, while allowing 441+ total yards in three of their four games; they've been outscored 24-0, outgained 247-68 on first drive of second half.

Bills (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)- Detroit already -5 in turnovers, so small improvement in offense (nine TDs on 38 drives in last three games) tempered by lack of ball security that typifies a Martz offense (seven TO's in last two games). Buffalo allowed 6,12 points in their two wins, 19-28-40 in losses; they split their two road games. Still doubt Losman's ability to make plays (10-37 on 3rd down last three games) but backing Millen Lions is like asking Devil Rays to win AL East. Last week, Detroit had 17-3 lead at Minnesota, defense held Vikings to one TD, but offense coughed up two TDs in last quarter. Detroit has yet to have edge in average field position this season and have only one sack in last four games.

Seahawks (3-1) @ Rams (4-1)- St Louis tied for NFL lead in turnover margin (+10, +8 in two home games) but lost to 49ers only time they didn't have turnover edge, pretty big red flag. Seattle off a bye and spanking in Chicago, have seven giveaways in last three games, and are probably still without Alexander here. Hawks allowed 64 points in last three halves, still hard to gauge if they have Super Bowl hangover, or how much they miss key OL Hutchinson, who left via free agency (he visits Seattle with Vikings next week). Bad stat for Rams is that they've scored eight offensive TDs, while attempting 21 FGs; good news is that despite failing often in red zone, they're still 4-1.

Giants (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1)- Think Atlanta has advantage in non-division games, as unique style of Vick's running easier to contain when you see it twice a year- they scored 32 pts in only non-division game so far, after scoring 20-14-3 vs NFC South foes. Giant defense shored up in first game after bye (held Redskins to 164 total yards, 3-11 on third down) after allowing 58.7% of third down plays to work in first three games. Atlanta surprisingly bad 16-56 on 3rd down (28.6%), but they've run ball for 252-306-262 yards in their three wins (117 in loss at Saints) and outscored foes 46-10 in two home wins. Giants have had fairly stout run defense so far (allowing 86.5 yds/game). Sandwich game for Giants, in between Redskin/Cowboy tilts.

Eagles (4-1) @ Saints (4-1)- Philly scored 38-31-38 points last three games; they've scored 3+ offensive TDs in all five games and outscored last two foes 45-3 in second half. Gritty Saints finding ways to win; four of their five games were decided by seven or less pts, but they've allowed 354 rushing yards in last two games, a red flag. Good sign for Saints is that they've yet to have edge in average starting field position, but they're 4-1; they've scored special teams TD in each of their home games. Eagles have 23 sacks in five games. Will Eagle WR Stallworth (hamstring) return to play against team that cut him this summer? Saints 3-0 vs spread as underdog this season.

Panthers (3-2) @ Ravens (4-1)- Defensive struggle expected as offensively-challenged Panthers (0-11 on 3rd down in win last week) visit Baltimore (scored 34 points total in last three games). Carolina not making plays (11-59 on 3rd down) but still won last three games; they scored 6,13 in their two losses, 26-21-20 in wins. No one has scored more than 14 on Ravens yet this year, but Baltimore playing on short week after Monday night loss in Denver. Raven OC Fassel, Panther HC Fox worked together with Giants, so some level of familiarity there. Baltimore was +10 in turnovers in first three games, are -4 in last two, as McNair tossed four picks vs Chargers, Denver.

Dolphins (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)- Tough times on both sides; Jets allowing 164.3 rushing yards per game last four weeks; they gave up 72 points in losing last two games (-7 TO ratio in those two games), and had just 45 passing yards in 41-0 loss last week. Miami scoring 12.2 ppg in awful start, with only win 13-10 at home vs 0-5 Titans; they've converted just 34% on third down, have only five TDs on 53 drives, and actually think Harrington gives them their best chance to win at QB, so you know they're grasping at straws. Dolphins are tied for best black zone defense, allowing only one TD on 19 opponent drives that started 80+ yds from goal line, but they haven't had edge in field position since Week 1.

Chargers (3-1) @ 49ers (2-3)- Marty better turn Rivers loose in this game; 49ers allowed 34-38-41 points in their losses, 13-20 in wins. 49ers scoring 26 ppg in three home games (2-1, with only loss 38-24 to Eagles). Norv Turner has helped Smith become NFL QB; Niners are 12th in NFL in TD %age (11-56). Trap game for Bolts, off Steeler win Sunday night, with Chiefs on deck; Chargers have two INT's in each of last three games; they've been + in TO's in all four games, and are allowing just 25% conversions on third down (11-44). SF defense still struggling, ranked last in NFL in red zone defense; only Jets (16) have allowed more TDs than 15 49ers gave up.

Chiefs (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)- Pittsburgh struggling badly, losing last three games; Roethlisberger has no TD passes, seven picks this year, as effects of appendectomy linger- he isn't as big or strong as last year, and Pitt is just 13-38 on third down in his three starts. Steeler defense has already allowed four TD drives of 80+ yards, while offense already has 10 giveaways. Chiefs scored 64 points in winning two post-bye games; they rallied from 14-0 down to win at Arizona last week, but Johnson hurt neck in that game, not sure of status here. Steelers outscored
39-13 in second half of last three games; they have been -5 or worse in average starting field position every game so far. QB Green still out for Chiefs, who are quickly more of a defensive team under Edwards.

Raiders (0-4) @ Broncos (3-1)- Fifteen points in divisional rivalry game is lot to spot, but you look at Oakland offense vs Bronco defense, and, it doesn't look that big anymore. Denver defense has dominated this year, allowing one TD on 41 enemy drives, which helped them survive an offense that scored one TD in its first two home games (9-6/13-3). Broncos have won 63.3% of all third down plays this year, and have yielded only one TD in opponents' ten red zone drives. Oakland is mess, allowing 28.3 ppg, going 3/out over half (52.2%) the time, with just four TDs on those 46 drives, and a -9 TO ratio. In second half of their first four games, once-proud Raiders have been outscored 64-10, sign of a team with no hope.

Chicago (5-0) @ Arizona (1-4)- Lot of transplanted Chicagoans in desert, so should be decent amount of Bear fans at rare Monday night Cardinal home game. Leinart did well enough (22-35/222 passing) in his first start, but now gets stiff test from Bear defense that has allowed only two TDs on 54 opponent drives, while forcing 15 turnovers, 18 3/outs. Grossman has emerged as passing threat (6.5+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games) which has opened up rushing game (298 yds in last two games). Loss of WR Fitzgerald (hamstring) hurts potentially explosive Cardinal offense; their QBs have been sacked 17 times in five games, but turnovers were down (1) in Leinart's first start.