4-team teaser to close out the week

Ernie_Money · 10-22-06, 03:17 AM

Hopefully I can close out the week on a good note after the horrible start with a 4-team, NFL teaser (13 points). Note: I hated to lay an extra $100 in juice, because at 5dimes (juice is -120, but ties lose) Cleveland was +17, and I wanted to get over that key number and paid an extra $100 in juice to get 17.5 at Pinnacle (juice -140).

Atlanta +15.5
Miami +7.5
Cleveland +17.5
Washington +22

laying $700 to win $500 (Pinnacle)

Reasoning:

1) Generally speaking, teams aren't as bad or as good as their previous week in the NFL. The Steelers thrashed the Chiefs 45-7 and the Falcons got buried in the 2nd half at home by the Giants to lose 27-14. I look for the Falcons to bounce back and the Steelers to return to their mean this week as this just looks like a FG game to me, either way.
2) Miami has yet to the cover the spread this season (0-6 ATS). Nick Saban cannot be a happy camper with his Dolphins' squad after all the expectations coming into this season. They have played well enough, but turnovers killed them the last 2 weeks. I cannot see them losing, but have some insurance here, as they can lose by 7 and I'll still eke out a win. Be shocked if they lose to GB though as they are the better team.
3) Cleveland is coming off a bye week and Denver will be looking ahead to Week 8 when they host the Colts at Home. The Browns aren't playing badly at all. A tipped ball by their WR led to a defensive TD for Carolina as the Browns only lost by 8 at Carolina their last game. The Browns played Baltimore tough at Home, losing a heartbreaker 15-14 on a last-second FG. Denver hasn't even score more than 17 ponts this season in any game, so I'll take the Browns in a possible upset here.
4) The Redskins will get back to the Run-game this week, which means trouble for the Colts as their run-defense is brutal. I honestly believe the Redskins can win this straight up, or at worst, give Indy all they can handle as I expect Joe Gibbs to have this team ready after their debacle to Tennessee at Home last week. Great bounce-back spot for the Redskins here.

Week 8: 3-4, +$4
Week 7: 5-2: +$636
Week 6: 5-1, +$750
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913

OLD HEAD · 10-22-06, 08:59 AM

Good luck Ernie. Miami is the only big 'if' in your picks. They should take care of business today and I like that half after 7. Still have a win even if they blow it and lose by a TD.

Good Luck!!!

10-22-06, 03:17 AM	#1 (permalink)
Ernie_Money SCI Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 48	4-team teaser to close out the week Hopefully I can close out the week on a good note after the horrible start with a 4-team, NFL teaser (13 points). Note: I hated to lay an extra $100 in juice, because at 5dimes (juice is -120, but ties lose) Cleveland was +17, and I wanted to get over that key number and paid an extra $100 in juice to get 17.5 at Pinnacle (juice -140). Atlanta +15.5 Miami +7.5 Cleveland +17.5 Washington +22 laying $700 to win $500 (Pinnacle) Reasoning: 1) Generally speaking, teams aren't as bad or as good as their previous week in the NFL. The Steelers thrashed the Chiefs 45-7 and the Falcons got buried in the 2nd half at home by the Giants to lose 27-14. I look for the Falcons to bounce back and the Steelers to return to their mean this week as this just looks like a FG game to me, either way. 2) Miami has yet to the cover the spread this season (0-6 ATS). Nick Saban cannot be a happy camper with his Dolphins' squad after all the expectations coming into this season. They have played well enough, but turnovers killed them the last 2 weeks. I cannot see them losing, but have some insurance here, as they can lose by 7 and I'll still eke out a win. Be shocked if they lose to GB though as they are the better team. 3) Cleveland is coming off a bye week and Denver will be looking ahead to Week 8 when they host the Colts at Home. The Browns aren't playing badly at all. A tipped ball by their WR led to a defensive TD for Carolina as the Browns only lost by 8 at Carolina their last game. The Browns played Baltimore tough at Home, losing a heartbreaker 15-14 on a last-second FG. Denver hasn't even score more than 17 ponts this season in any game, so I'll take the Browns in a possible upset here. 4) The Redskins will get back to the Run-game this week, which means trouble for the Colts as their run-defense is brutal. I honestly believe the Redskins can win this straight up, or at worst, give Indy all they can handle as I expect Joe Gibbs to have this team ready after their debacle to Tennessee at Home last week. Great bounce-back spot for the Redskins here. Week 8: 3-4, +$4 Week 7: 5-2: +$636 Week 6: 5-1, +$750 Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913
Status: Offline

10-22-06, 08:59 AM	#2 (permalink)
OLD HEAD SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: JOISY !! Posts: 1,512	Good luck Ernie. Miami is the only big 'if' in your picks. They should take care of business today and I like that half after 7. Still have a win even if they blow it and lose by a TD. Good Luck!!! __________________ SHOW NO EMOTION
Status: Online