[Tommy]

Ravens (9-3) @ Chiefs (7-5)
Chiefs were rolling along on 4-1 run, had 28-14 lead in fourth quarter at Cleveland last week, but got beat by backup QB and fell out of playoff spot, for now. KC won five in row at home since Week 1 loss to Bengals, allowing Baltimore had three extra days to rest/prepare; they're 4-2 on road, with pair of one-point wins. Half of Chiefs' 12 games were decided by four or less pts; they had allowed only three TDs on last 29 drives entering Brown game, but allowed Cleveland season-high 8.2 yds/pass attempt. Ravens are 7-0 if they average more than 5.6 yds/pass attempt, figure Chiefs allowed in eight of 12 games.

Falcons (6-6) @ Buccaneers (3-9)
Atlanta was on four-game skid and trailed 14-0 at Redskins last week, but Falcons scored game's last 24 points, got new life, and are now in four-way tie for two Wild Card slots; they beat Buccaneers 14-3 at home in Week 2, outrushing Tampa 306-40, using 13-yard edge in field position to keep Bucs pinned near their own goal line (five of 10 Buc drives started 80+ yds from EZ). Tampa lost five of last six games, scoring zero or three second half pts in all five losses; they've scored one TD on 21 drives in last two games. Bucs are 1-7 when they score less than 20 pts.

Vikings (5-7) @ Lions (2-10)
QB controversy in Minnesota, where some players want rookie Jackson under center in midst of 1-5 skid (0-6 vs. spread); Vikings scored nine TDs on last 74 drives (five on 63 if you take Arizona game out)- they had nine 3/outs on 17 drives in 23-13 loss at Chicago last week, losing game they outgained Bears 348-107. In last five games, Minnesota defense allowed total of 186 rushing yards on 97 runs, and still won only once. Detroit lost last four games, but led in fourth quarter at Foxboro last week; they've allowed 17 sacks in last three games, and scored four TDs on last 40 drives.

Titans (5-7) @ Texans (4-8)
QB Young returns home to Houston on three-game win streak, having beaten both Manning brothers with comeback wins last two weeks; Titans outscored last three foes 51-10 in second half. Young is 5-4 as starter; Tennessee beat Houston 28-22 at home six weeks ago, using +5 turnover ratio to offset Texans' 427-197 edge in total yardage. Houston won at Oakland 23-14 last week, despite minus-5 passing yards, and 302-124 deficit in total yardage; in games following their first three wins, they lost 34-6/28-22/24-21; this is just their second home game in last seven weeks.

Giants (6-6) @ Panthers (6-6)
Both teams on slide (Giants lost four in row, Carolina 2-4 in last six); Monday night losers are 3-10 SU in next game this season, 1-6-1 vs spread if favored; Carolina knocked Giants out of playoffs last January, after which Barber told media Panthers outcoached Big Blue. Carolina won four of last five home games, outgaining last two visitors 729-333. Giants been outscored 81-27 in second half of last four games; they played hearts out vs Cowboys last week, still came up short; they're 1-2 on grass this season, and they trailed 24-7 in game they won, Week 2 at Philly.

Saints (8-4) @ Cowboys (8-4)
Pivotal game in race for first round playoff bye; Payton was Parcells' assistant last three years, does that give him edge? Saints move ball consistently well, gaining 363+ yards in each of last seven games; they're 7-0 when they don't lose turnover battle- they had -3 or worse turnover ratio in three of four losses. Dallas won NFC East last week with huge struggle in Swamp; Romo is 5-1 as starter, 2-0 at home. Cowboys converted 42 of 78 on third down (53.8%) on third down in his starts. Saints are 4-2 on road, losing 21-18 at Panthers, 38-31 at Steelers- they're 5-1 as dogs.

Bills (5-7) @ Jets (7-5)
Gang Green won five of last seven games; they're 7-1 when they score more than 13 points, but are just 3-3 at home, although they're 3-0 vs. spread as favorite, reversing old trend where Jets rarely covered as favorite. Jets won 28-20 at Buffalo in Week 3, using three turnovers to offset 475-256 Bills' edge in yardage. Buffalo covered last five games (3-2 SU), losing to Colts, Chargers by combined four points, so they're competing hard vs NFL's best. Bills had 169 rushing yds in previous loss to Jets- they're 6-2 against spread as underdog this season.

Colts (10-2) @ Jaguars (7-5)
In seven wins, Jacksonville allowed 17-0-0-6-7-10-10 points; Jags followed blueprint to beat Colts in Week 3, running ball for 191 yards, with 16 more snaps than Colts to shorten game, but Indy pulled out 21-14 win late. Indy, on road for third time in last four weeks, scored 14,17 in last two road games, as foes ran ball 36,35 times; they're 2-1 on grass. Only once in last six weeks did Indy win by more than seven pts. Jags ran ball for 174 yds/game last three weeks, as mobile QB gives them added dimension. Four of last five Indy games, five of last seven Jaguar games stayed under the total.

Eagles (6-6) @ Redskins (4-8)
Philly defense allowed 100 points in last three games, but Garcia rallied offense in season-saver vs. Panthers Monday; winner of Monday night games are 8-4 the next week this season. Best game Eagles played out of last seven was 27-3 thrashing of Redskins four weeks ago (averaged 8.1 ypp, held Skins to 3-13 on third down) but both teams have new starting QBs now. Washington, in last four games, scored 3-17-17-14 pts; they're 3-3 at home, with five of six games decided by four or less pts, or in OT. First of three consecutive divisional road games for Philly.

Raiders (2-10) @ Bengals (7-5)
Oakland lost last five games, and hideous Brooks is back at QB, but only two of last eight Raider losses are by more than 10 points; they're 5-2 vs. spread in last seven games, covering last two away games, at Denver, San Diego. Bengals are on roll, allowing just 23 pts in last three games since 42-pt second half debacle vs. Chargers- they gave up only one TD on 21 drives in last two games. Raiders might be better off punting on first down; in last four games, defense allowed average of 235 yds/game, but Oakland lost anyway.

Patriots (9-3) @ Dolphins (5-7)
Guy I used to know said if spread is under seven, just pick the winner, so if you're picking winner in Belichick-Harrington tussle, which side you taking? Miami made Garrard look like Steve Young last week, as Jags averaged 7.8 yds/pass attempt, while running for 150 yards in snapping four-game Miami win streak. All Patriots do in December is win games; they've forced nine turnovers in last two games, and allowed three offensive TDs on last 44 drives. In first meeting, 20-10 Pat win in Week 5, Miami outgained Pats 283-213, but three of nine NE drives started in Fish territory, and Dolphins didn't score in second half.

Packers (4-8) @ 49ers (5-7)
Green Bay allowed 35-34-38 points last three weeks, giving up 13 TDs on 36 drives, not good. Worse the defense plays, more Favre forces plays, which creates turnovers (seven in last two games, 11 for last 40 on third down). 49ers are 4-2 at home, covering only previous try as favorite (34-20 vs. Raiders in Week 5), but they've scored 20+ points once in last seven games. Not sure why Pack doesn't attack early in games; they've scored on only two of 12 first drives, and they were on drives of 37,36 yards- they average 12.9 yds per opening drive, very poor.

Seahawks (8-4) @ Cardinals (3-9)
James ran for 117 yards last week, first time in 37 games Arizona had runner gain 100+ yards, giving Cards three covers in row (2-1 SU). Hasselbeck, Alexander are back, are playing for first round bye in playoffs; they beat Arizona 21-10 in Week 2 (-7), outrushing Cards 146-65 in game that Arizona had 11 penalties for only 66 yards. Seattle is 3-3 on road, winning at Detroit (9-6), St Louis (30-28), Denver (23-20), so laying 3.5 on road with Seahawks puts them in uncharted waters. Eight of last ten Seattle games went over the total.

Broncos (7-5) @ Chargers (10-2)
San Diego owns upper hand on home field through AFC playoffs; they've won last six games and is 5-0 at home, winning by 33,10,14,7,7 points (3-2 as home fave). Chargers scored 28 second half pts in 35-27 win at Denver three weeks ago, converting 8-12 on third down and scoring TDs on all four red zone drives. Cutler was lousy in starting debut last week; Denver lost last three games, and has gotten worst of field position six games in row, four times by double digit margins. Seven of last eight San Diego games went over the total.

Monday

Bears (10-2) @ Rams (5-7)
Bulger ripped younger offensive linemen after Arizona loss, saying they don't care about winning; with awesome defense of Bears coming to town, could be tough night for Bulger (sacked 17 times in last four games). Chicago is an enigma, winning despite an offense that turned ball over 24 times in last seven games, and that's with two turnover-free games in there (they won 41-10/10-0 in games without turnover). Rams are 0-5 if they don't win turnover battle, so up to Haslett's defense to further expose Chicago offense that gained total of 107 yards vs. Minnesota last week.

[Teaser5]

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