[Tommy]

Sunday, September 9, 2007

Chiefs @ Texans
Two teams headed in opposite directions, as Chiefs are in disarray, with Huard winning QB derby by default, while Texans imported Schaub te replace Carr at QB, as they try and move past mistake of not drafting hometown hero Young. Houston lost last four home openers, three by 14+ points. KC is 4-2 in last six road openers, but lost couple of offensive linemen, and star RB Johnson just got into camp. Chiefs, originally called the Dallas Texans, won last two visits here, 42-14/45-17.

Broncos @ Bills
Denver won last four series games, with totals in last three 43+; they won last two visits here, 23-20ot/28-17, but lost last three road openers, with four of last five staying under total. Old friend Travis Henry returns to Buffalo, trying to revive Bronco running game. Buffalo is 4-9 in last 13 openers, 2-4 in last six at home; six of their last eight home openers stayed under the total. Interesting to see how Cal rookie Lynch does running ball.

Steelers @ Browns
Steelers have third coach in last 39 seasons, vs team that has major confusion at QB- they actually flipped a coin to determine starter for summer game. Pittsburgh won seven series games in row, with five of last six wins by 11+ points- they won last six visits to Lake Erie, and converted on 16 of 28 third down plays vs Browns LY, scoring six TDs on 20 drives, while the Browns had one TD on 19 drives, with seven 3/outs. They've lost seven of last eight home openers, with four of the last five losses by five or less points.

Titans @ Jaguars
Jax outrushed Titans 380-149 LY, allowing the Titans to convert just five of 26 on third down, but they lost big game in Week 15 to Tennessee (24-17), even though Titans had only 98 total yards, and were 0 for 8 on third down. Titans lost last two visits here, 40-13/37-7, and lost six of last seven openers on road; they're 3-9 vs spread as dog in road openers, losing last two by combined score of 74-14. Jags covered last six openers at home; they covered in Week 1 the last eight years.

Panthers @ Rams
First visit to this site for Carolina since win in OT in '03 playoffs that propelled them to NFC title; Panthers won last three series games, 15-0/20-7/29-23ot- they held Rams to just 31 rushing yards in LY's game, dominating total yards (411-111) holding St Louis to eight first downs. Rams upgraded offense by adding Bennett, McMichael; they won last four series openers, all by eight or less points. In their history, Carolina is 1-3 in Week 1 road games-- they lost their last three season openers, all as a home favorite.

Eagles @ Packers
Philly won last five series games, with home side winning nine of last ten in series; Eagles lost three of last 4 visits to Lambeau, but haven't been here since '03. LY, Pack led
9-7 at half in Philly, but lost 31-9, as Iggles ran ball for 131 yards, and has 12-yard advantage in field position. Pack lost their last 4 home openers, covered just one of last eight, allowing 25.8 ppg in last four. Eagles are 6-2 vs spread as favorite in Week 1; under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.

Falcons @ Vikings
Post-Vick era begins with Harrington at QB for Atlanta. Home side lost four of last five series games, as the Falcons won last two visits here, both in OT (one of wins was in playoffs). Vikings won three of last four home openers; under is 13-5-1 in their last 19, as well as 12-6 in Falcons' last 18 openers on road. Atlanta started out 1-0 last four years, won three of last four road openers. Minnesota figures to try and run ball, with a young QB (Jackson) and solid rookie runner (Peterson).

Dolphins @ Redskins
Cameron/Green combo used to work for Redskins, now 37-year old Green tries to revive career in Miami, after serious concussion caused him to miss half of last season in KC. Home side won last five series games, with Dolphins' last W here back in '84. Skins won four of last five home openers, with last four staying under- they're 2-6-1 vs spread last nine times as a favorite in home opener. Fish lost last three road openers; nine of their last thirteen road openers stayed under the total.

Patriots @ Jets
New England defense has taken hits recently, as Harrison, Seymour both out for first month, but Belichick is 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last six at this site. Last season, Pats won two of three vs Jets, outrushing Gang Green 448-208. although Jets did run ball for 117 yards in game they won. Jets were 17-31 on 3rd down during season vs Pats, but only 3-11 in playoff loss. Over is 13-5-1 in last nineteen Jet home openers, and 5-2-2 in New England's last nine road openers.

Buccaneers @ Seahawks
Seattle won six of last seven in series, with last four series totals 30 or less; Hawks won 23-7 last year in Week 17 (+3), winning 60.9% of third down plays, having 12-yard edge in field position, piling up 28 first downs and 72-49 edge in plays run. Garcia is latest QB for Bucs, who won six of last eight road openers (under is 6-0 both in Seattle home openers, and Buc road openers). Seahawks won last four home openers, allowing just 9.5 ppg, winning by 17-34-3-11 points.

Bears @ Chargers
Norv Turner debuts as Bolts' HC, while his brother Ron calls plays for Bears. Charger LB coach Rivera was Chicago DC for last three years, was let go by Chicago after he tried to get head coaching job, so this has to be special game for him, even with hated Patriots on deck. Bears won last four games in this seldom-played series; this is their first visit here since '99. San Diego scored 24-28-40 points in last three season openers. Of late, teams that lose Super Bowl have stumbled the next year.

Lions @ Raiders
Fine piece of scheduling, as two worst teams in '06 meet in '07 opener, guaranteeing one of them a happy start to this season. Home side won six of last eight series games, as Lions are 0-4 at this site. Raiders acquired QB McCown from the Lions in offseason; will he help Oakland defend Martz Madness? Lions expected to be more explosive in second year with Martz as OC, but Lions just 24-72 in six years under inept GM Millen; hard to have much confidence backing them on road, even against dysfunctional Raider team that cut its 3rd round pick this week.

Giants @ Cowboys
Both offense dominated series games in '06, as teams combined to convert 56% of third down plays in teams' meetings. This was game last year where Romo replaced Bledsoe after bad INT right before half. Giants were +3 in turnovers, ran ball for 281 yards, while Dallas averaged 7.2/7.3 yards per pass attempt in two games. Giants are 10-6 in last 16 series games, 4-3 in last seven visits here. Dallas started 0-1 six of last seven years under is 13-5-1 in their last nineteen home openers. Can Jacobs be adequate replacement for backstabbing former RB Barber?

Monday, September 10

Ravens @ Bengals
Baltimore was 11-31 on third down last year vs Bengals, scoring only one TD in seven trips to Cincinnati red zone; they hope addition of McGahee improves those numbers. Bengals won four of last five series games, with Ravens losing in last two visits here, 42-29/13-7, but Cincy OL took some hits last offseason, which could hamper formerly high-powered offense. Ravens lost five of last six road openers, with under 8-1 in last 9 road openers. Bengals won last three home openers, by 3,29,17.

Cardinals @ 49ers
Since losing pair of OT tilts to Niners in 2005, Cardinals won last four series games, winning last two visits here 17-10/26-20; six of last seven series totals were 45+. Arizona won 64.6% of third down plays in series LY, with Niners just 2-18 on third down, but Cardinals have been awful road team, losing last five road openers by 13-point average. Arizona is 1-12 in last 13 Week 1 road games. Niners covered their last four openers, with underdog covering seven of their last nine. At age 23, 49er QB Smith is same age as Hawai'i's Heisman hopeful Colt Brennan.