[Tommy]

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Bills (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0)
Pittsburgh was dominant in Week 1 win, with 27-yard edge in average field position, 206-46 rushing advantage and +4 turnover ratio, but Bills better than Cleveland. Steelers won six of last seven series games; this is Bills' 1st visit here since '96. Bills were outgained 470-184 by Denver, but they did get punt return TD that put 'em ahead early, so they tried to sit on lead a little. Buffalo seems to be getting good news about health of their player who injured his neck last week- thats good. Last five Steeler home openers went over the total.

Bengals (1-0) @ Browns (0-1)
Short week and short travel for a Bengal team that ran ball for only 55 yards vs Ravens Monday; beware teams that win with 3+ turnovers (Bengals had four), but Browns traded their starting QB Monday, so assume Anderson gets start here, vs Cincy club they've beaten five times in row by average score of 34-20. Has to be at least a little chaotic for the home side, as fans want Quinn to play, but he can't be ready due to his holdout. LY, Bengals outscored Browns 34-3 in first half of their two meetings, converted 15 of 29 third down plays.

Colts (1-0) @ Titans (1-0)
Indy won seven of last eight series games, though LY’s tilts were decided by total of four (14-13I/20-17T) points; Titans controlled ball in both games, running for 423 yards, and after 282 rushing yards in win at Jacksonville, you know they’ll try to do same thing here. Colts ran ball for 164 yards, averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt LW vs Saints, outscored NO 31-0 in second half. Titans covered last four tries as dog in their home opener; Colts are 6-1-1 vs. spread in last eight road openers- under is 12-5 in their last 17 road openers. Neither team allowed a point in second half last week.

Texans (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0)
David Carr was dumped by Texans in offseason, now is Carolina backup QB; Houston won first game without him, holding Chiefs to 219 yards, even though KC converted on nine of 13 third down plays. Texans had 13-yard edge in field position, had four takeaways, scored TD on defense, but they’ve lost last three road openers by 12-15-19 points, and are 1-4 vs. spread in last five road openers. Carolina scored just 13.3 pg in losing last three home openers; they’re 2-8 in last ten, and they’re 0-4 in home openers that weren’t in Week 1. Panthers ran ball for 186 yards LW, outgaining Rams 387-238. Texans won only previous meeting, 13-10 at home in ’03.

49ers (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)
Injuries to OT Pace and his backup Steussie leave Rams dangerously thin at tackle, a critical position; home side won nine of last eleven games in this rivalry, with Niners 1-7 in last eight visits to this site (five of seven losses by 10+ pts). 49ers gave up 33.3 pg in losing last four road openers; they’re traveling here on short week, after dramatic cut sloppy win in opener, where they were outrushed by 161-92, completed less than half their passes (15-31) but found a way to win at the end. Rams were outgained by 149 yards by Carolina and didn’t have one play gain 20+ yards (there were 61 overall in league last week).

Packers (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)
Health of QB Manning key issue for Giant club whose defense was riddled by Romo LW (23 yds/ completion); offense may have to outscore teams to win, going to inexperienced Lorenzen at QB not good for Coughlin’s shaky job security. Dallas gained 478 yards LW, had eight plays of 20+ yards, scoring six TDs on 11 drives. Pack defense is better than Cowboys’; they held Eagles 283 yards, and McNabb was just 15-33 passing. Pack offense struggled though, running for just 46 yards; they were only home team LW that didn’t score a TD on offense. Eight of ten Packer first downs were earned on third down plays. Manning had played one of his best games before coming out late with bruised shoulder.

Falcons (0-1) @ Jaguars (0-1)
Anytime pair of 0-1 teams meet, stakes are high, since 0-2 NFL clubs seldom make postseason. Harrington had rough Falcon debut, as Vikings scored pair of defensive TDs, including INT for TD with game 0-0, but he was given lousy field position throughout day; five of nine Atlanta drives started 80+ yards from paydirt- their average start point was 19-yard line, worst in NFL LW. Jaguars allowed ridiculously high 282 rushing yards (5.8/carry) in loss to Titans- they ran ball for only 72 yards themselves and were outgained by 78 yards. Falcons were one of six teams not to score offensive TD LW; they never even got inside Minnesota red zone.

Saints (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1)
New Orleans won four of last five visits to this site; they swept Bucs LY (24-21/31-14), outsacking Bucs 6-0 in two games, and holding Tampa to 9-27 on third down. Bucs went 3/out on 11 of 24 drives vs. Saints LY, but NO defense gave up 452 yards in opener at Indy, 164 on ground, while Saints’ only TD came on defense score in second quarter. Bucs had 13-yard disadvantage in field position LW; six of their ten drives started 80+ yards from goal line. Bucs lost four of last five home openers, scoring 8.5 pg in last four—under is 12-3 in their last fifteen home openers. Saints had three extra days to prepare, after playing in Thursday night season opener.

Vikings (1-0) @ Lions (1-0)
Minnesota won last ten series tilts, , winning last five in Motown by 2-10-1-5-10 points; last year, they outrushed Lions 307-13, converted 56.3% of third down plays, forced 10 turnovers, held Detroit to 7-22 on third down. Vikings, though, are 2-4 in last six road openers, scoring 14.3 pg in last three. Lions covered nine of last eleven home openers. Last wk, they had 17-0 lead, blew it, but then scored game’s last 16 points in 36-21 win- three of their four TD drives started in Oakland territory. Vikings had six sacks, cored two defensive TDs LW; they won 56% of third down plays, but never took snap inside Falcon red zone, scoring only offensive TD on long run after short pass to rookie Peterson.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)
Dallas averaged 23 yards/ completion LW (15-24/327) but also gave up 438 yards to Giant club that lacks great runner and is largely one-dimensional. Cowboys lost five of last seven road openers, Miami lost three of last four home openers. Miami was outgained 400-273 last week vs. Redskins, running for only 66 yards- they were one of only three teams that had an edge in field position last week but lost. Dallas had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, most in NFL, but their opponent had five, the second-most in league. Under is 11-4 in Miami’s last fifteen home openers, but nine of last ten Dallas road openers went over, with average total in their last four, 52.4.

Seahawks (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1)
Arizona on short week, hosting NFC West kingpin that had five sacks and +13 yard edge in field position in 20-6 home win last week. Home side won six of last seven series games, with four of last five series totals 45+; Seattle won three of last four road openers, allowing seven or less points in four of last six road debuts. Seahawks lost two of last three visits here, with average total in three games, 47.3. Arizona had 20 penalties for 143 yards in two games vs. Seattle LY, 10 more for 71 yards in sloppy loss Monday night, when falling on a loose ball in end zone in last 2:00 could have given Cardinals much-needed road win. Arizona also lost their center Monday night.

Jets (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)
Health of Pennington key media point this week, but Oregon alum Clemens more than capable if prepared, though Raven defense would be tough one to break in against, even with Lewis hampered by tricep injury. Favorite covered Baltimore’s last six home openers, with Ravens 4-0 as favorite in first home game of year; they’re 5-2 in last seven home openers, overall. Ravens won last four games vs. Jets by average score of 23-13- only one of the four came by less than ten points. Lot of distractions for Jets this week, since many think Mangini turned Pats into league office for video piracy of Jets’ coaching signals. Short week for Baltimore, after loss Monday night.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Bears (0-1)
Struggling KC offense (219 total yards, 72 rushing; four turnovers, no TDs at Houston) not likely to find its way vs. brutal Bear defense that shut Chargers out for half last week. Now, also tough to lay double-digit spread with Grossman-led offense that scored three points LW, running ball for 80 yards, turning itl over four times, completing just 12 of 23 passes, but you figure Chicago is good for defensive score, even with star safety Brown now out for year. Schaub was 16-22/187 passing vs. Chiefs LW, but Houston converted just 3-11 on third down, as Chief defense kept team in game until offense totally unraveled. Four of Chicago’s last five home openers went over the total.

Raiders (0-1) @ Broncos (0-1)
Shanahan despises Al Davis over $250,000 he got stiffed out of after Davis fired him; Broncos won seven of last eight series games, with six of seven wins by 10+ points; last year’s wins were 13-3/17-13 games, with total yardage almost exactly even. Five of last seven series totals were 34 or less. Raiders lost last four road openers, by 5-3-10-22 pts; seven of their last eight road openers went over total, but four of Denver’s last five home openers stayed under. Broncos won last seven home openers (6-1 vs. spread). Oakland showed spunk LW, rallying from 17-0 down to take lead in 4th quarter; new QB McCown was 30-40/253 passing, so Raiders have passing game, nd therefore, backdoor capability.

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)
Patriots stunned Chargers in playoffs LY, as Bolts lost three fumbles, completed just 14-32 passes, but now SD has new coaches, same players, and revenge on their mind. NE won 11 of last 13 series games, seven of last eight at this site, but Chargers did win here 41-17 in ’05. Pats won last five home openers, by 16-7-3-10-2 points; they’re 5-2-1 vs. spread as favorite in home opener. No idea if VideoGate is distraction in Foxboro, but hard to buck Belichick/Brady in these big games, and this is a big game, especially for Chargers, who didn’t score in first half vs. Bears last week, while Patriots were drilling division rival Jets in Swamp.

Monday, September 17

Redskins (1-0) @ Eagles (0-1)
Hopefully Philly found someone who can catch a punt; they’ve won nine of last 11 vs. Redskins, taking four of last five here, with wins by 13-2-22-24 points. Last year, Iggles won 27-3/21-19, outscoring Skins by combined 38-9 in first half of those games. Washington ran ball for 356 yards vs. Philly LY, but didn’t score TD (four FGs) in four trips to Eagle red zone. Skins lost five of last seven road openers, but are 7-4 as dog in their first road game of season. Philly scored 32.3 pg in last three home openers, with six of last eight going over total. Skins held Miami to 66 rushing yards LW, were one of only three teams that won despite losing field position battle.are 3-2 as home dog, beat Missouri here back in '03.