[Tommy]

Sunday, October 7

Panthers (2-2) @ Saints (0-3)
NO off to horrible start, allowing 103 points in losses by 31,28,17 points; they’ve covered just one of last seven as favorite coming off a bye and are already -8 in turnovers, with ten giveaways in only three games, as well as no sacks yet and a -21 IP ratio (47-26). Loss of McAllister makes Saints more of a passing team. Carolina hurting with backup QB Carr; he averaged 2.7 yds/pass attempt in dismal 20-7 loss to Bucs last week (they averaged 3.6/4.4/2.7 in last three games). Road team is 4-0 in Panther games this year with Carolina scoring 27 points each in wins at St Louis, Atlanta (combined 1-7 record).

Jaguars (2-1) @ Chiefs (2-2)
Herm’s Chiefs are playing solid defense, allowing four TDs on 44 drives, zero points on 14 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line (only NFL team at 0.00); they have 11 sacks, 10 takeaways and lead league allowing just 27.8% of third downs to be converted- they outscored last three foes 37-3 in second half. Jax lost five of last seven post-bye games, even though they were favored in six of those games. Jaguars allowed just 21 points in winning last two games before the bye, including win at Denver where they outrushed Broncos 186-47 (Broncos ran just 41 plays the whole game).

Lions (3-1) @ Redskins (2-1)
Erratic Lions either implode (they trailed 42-21 at half in Philly) or explode (they scored 34 points in fourth quarter last week). Detroit is 0-20 in DC, but Lions have 13 takeaways in four games, but Kitna making enough plays to make up for 21 sacks and 12 giveaways, typical Martz Madness stats. Martz first made his name as QB coach here with Skins, where he coached Trent Green. Redskins won nine of their last 11 post-bye games, winning last two years, by FG each; they’ve allowed 5.2/ 4.3/5.4 ypa in their three games. Lions lost eight of last ten pre-bye games, allowing 30,38 pts last two years.

Falcons (1-3) @ Titans (2-1)
Atlanta scored 10 points in two road losses, then scored 46 pts at home last two weeks; they’re hopeful Harrington (54-73/546 passing last two weeks) getting knack of offense, but Falcons are 29th in red zone offense (3.58), even when they’ve moved ball well. Falcons are only NFL club that has yet to start a drive in opponents’ territory. Road team won all three Titan games, with Tennessee losing 22-20 at home to Colts—they scored 28+ points in four of last five post-bye games. Titans are only NFL team that has yet to score point on drive that started 80+ yards from opponents’ end zone (7 drives).

Dolphins (0-4) @ Texans (2-2)
Miami playing better on road, losing both games by FG, but they’ve allowed 37-31-35 points in last three games (12 TDs on 28 drives) and are last in NFL on third down, both on offense (26.3%) and defense (55.6%), which results in lot of short fields for opponents (already yielded four TD drives of 40 yards or less). Fish have just three takeaways, five sacks in four games. Houston fading with Johnson/Green hurt, but they also have zero takeaways in last two games, after having seven in their two wins. Texans averaged 7.4+ ypa in three of four games. Last three games for both sides all went over the total.

Seahawks (3-1) @ Steelers (3-1)
Pittsburgh been dominant at home (26-3/27-16), but were held to 77 rushing yards last week, after averaging 198.3 ypg in three wins; they had 11 penalties last week, after total of 11 in the three wins. Steelers have 14 sacks, eight takeaways, but Seattle has 13/10; Hawks have allowed just four TDs on 42 drives, while forcing 42 3/outs. Seattle is fumbled snap away from 4-0 start; they have seven takeaways in last two games, are 5-7 as road dog last 3+ years. Steelers lost four of last five pre-bye games, with only win by four points. Both these teams lost at Arizona for only loss. NFC West road dogs are 2-5 vs. spread out of their division.

Browns (2-2) @ Patriots (4-0)
Old friends from Parcells’ Giant staff meet here; only two teams in NFL have more TDs than spunky Browns (14). New England playing with chip on its shoulder, winning games by 24-24-31-21 points, scoring 37 pg- they’ve had ten drives start 80+ yards from goal line, and scored seven TD’s, with five of those drives 90+ yards; the entire NFL has 62 TD drives of 80+ yds this season. Cleveland scored 51-24-27 pts in last three games; only blocked FG off skin infield at Oakland is keeping them from 3-1 record. Patriots playing on short week after thrashing Bengals. Both sides have had three of four games go over total.

Cardinals (2-2) @ Rams (0-4)
Redbirds been juggling QB’s successfully, using Leinart in running spots, former Ram (and still a St Louis icon) Warner in passing spots. Must-win game for 2-2 Arizona team, with two last-minute losses, vs. dysfunctional Ram squad starting Frerotte at QB for first time, with RB Jackson and five guys on OL all out injured. Arizona lost both its road games in last minute, but Rams been outscored 72-9 in second half of games this season, and are probably worst team in NFL, although they do get CB Brown (suspension) back here. Will be interesting to see if Leinart spouting off about juggling QB’s will change anything for Cardinals.

Jets (1-3) @ Giants (2-2)
Both teams at home here, although it is GIANTS Stadium; Big Blue defense awakened in last two weeks, allowing just 20 points, keeping both foes under 50% passing and sacking McNabb 12 times last week. Manning is moving chains (Giants 48.1% on 3rd down) but fading in red zone (3.86, 26th) partly because they’re struggling to run ball (94-96-83 yards last three games). Jets allowed 33 pg in pair of Swamp games; their lack of sacks, takeaways (three of each) has hurt their field position (Jets, Saints are only teams not to start drive in enemy territory). These teams are 2nd, 3rd in NFL in penalty yard ratio (Giants +129, Jets +89).

Bucs (3-1) @ Colts (4-0)
Indy has 16 plays of 20+ yards this year, will be tested by Buc defense that has allowed five. The last time these teams met was on Monday night in ’03 when Bucs led by 19 at home with 5:00 left but somehow lost in OT, as Dungy beat his former team on his birthday. Bucs come in here on three-game win streak, where they’ve allowed 14-3-7 points. Obviously, both teams run same defense—Bucs allowed only one TD in last two games, and that came with 0:23 left in Carolina last week, in garbage time of 20-7 win. Bucs had 182-189 rushing yards last two games, but are without star RB Williams now (knee). Oft-travelled Garcia enjoying another good start to season.

Chargers (1-3) @ Broncos (2-2)
Two floundering sides meet here; Denver allowed 200-186-226 rushing yards in their last three games losing last two by 9,18 pts. San Diego imploded at home vs Chiefs last week, outscored 24-0 in second half; in their last three games, they’ve allowed 38-31-30 points and gave up 7+ ypa in each loss. Denver has seven TD’s, 13 FGA’s, while allowing 11 TD’s, four FGA, so that’s problem. Tomlinson had 100+ rushing yards at half last week, then had 20 in second half, so they need to keep feeding him ball. Denver’s two wins are by combined total of four points; they’ve been -13/-18 in field position last two games, making it even harder on young QB Cutler.

Ravens (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2)
Injury to Alex Smith leaves former Raven Dilfer facing former mates, week after Niners had 22 net passing yards in ugly 23-3 home loss to Seattle. Baltimore is 0-2 on road, giving up 27 points in both games (at Bengals, Browns); they have eight giveaways in two losses, one in two wins, both of which came at home. 49ers been outscored 40-13 in first half of last three games; they’ve converted just 27.3% of 3rd down plays (31st) and went 3/out on 23 of 49 drives (46.9%, 32nd). As usual, offense is an issue for Ravens, who scored five TDs with 13 FGA’s, second-worst ratio in NFL- they also are last in league with 267 penalty yards. This could be an ugly game.

Bears (1-3) @ Packers (4-0)
Desperate times for NFC champion Bears, who are searching for a QB; they’ve turned ball over 14 times (-5, 30th) averaged 2.8/3.7/2.8 ypa in last three games, and thrown 32 more IPs than their opponents (32nd). They gave up 34 points in 4th quarter last week, after giving up 31 points in second half vs Dallas the week before. Meanwhile, its all good for Packer squad that is 4-0 despite not running ball for more than 83 yards in any game this season—they scored 29 pg, averaged 7.2+ ypa in last three weeks, and have won battle of field position in all four games. In last two games, Bears threw 91 passes, been sacked nine times and run ball only 45 times, as it continues to be dreadful fall for Turner family.

Monday, October 8

Cowboys (4-0) @ Bills (1-3)
Dallas off to red-hot start, winning by 10-17-24-28 points; Pokes have outscored opponents 107-40 in second half, and already have NFL-high 18 TD’s (six FGA)- they have big game in six days, hosting Patriots, but national TV spotlight should keep their attention here. Bills got first win over Jets last week; their two home games were decided by total of four points- they’ve allowed 14.5 pg at home, 32 on road. Bills need better defense on 3rd down; they’ve allowed 50% of 3rd plays to convert, bad news vs. mobile Romo and Dallas offense that is 24-49 (49%) on 3rd down. Given success Dallas has had in second half, Bills need to keep their defense off field as much as possible.