[Tommy]

Sunday, October 14

Bengals (1-3) @ Chiefs (2-3)
Cincinnati lost last three games before their bye, allowing 36.3 pg, getting outrushed 511-278; they allowed 14 TDs on opponents’ last 33 drives, and ran out of healthy linebackers in their last game, so the bye came at good time. Palmer threw pair of picks in each of those losses. Chiefs are playing good defense, allowing 14.3 pg over last three games, but they’ve yet to win field position in game this season, so they miss Dante Hall’s returns.. KC is also just 17 for last 53 on third down, so they’re not moving chains on offense. Bengals lost both road games, 51-45/24-21. Four of five Chief games stayed under the total.

Texans (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-1)
Houston swept Jaguars LY, 27-7/ 13-10, holding them to two TDs, 12 3/outs on 22 drives. This yr, Del Rio’s team is playing good defense, allowing 10.3 pg; they’ve outrushed last three foes 455-139, but Texans are passing team, averaging 7.3+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games— only Colts (5.3) held them under 7.3. Houston scored TD on its first drive last week, then ended game by kicking FGs on each of its last five drives, with three of the five coming on boots of 54+ yards (NFL record). Texans allowed 30,26 in its two losses, 21 or less in its three wins. Jags have yet to score more than 23 points.

Dolphins (0-5) @ Browns (2-3)
Cleo Lemon gets first NFL start under center for Miami, who lost all three of their road games by three points each, and also lost QB Green (concussion) last week. Cleveland is favored for first time this year, after covering three of last four as underdog; they won last two home games, 51-45/ 27-13, as Anderson has proved to be competent NFL QB (maybe better than he was in college). Fish ran ball for 141-137 yards in last two games, but until Lemon proves he is passing threat, they might have harder time running ball now. Four of five Cleveland games went over total, as did three of last four Miami tilts.

Vikings (1-3) @ Bears (2-3)
Griese is a definite upgrade at QB over Grossman; Chicago was +4 in turnovers last week, after -7 in margin in first four games; Bears hit some pass plays in second half last week (trailed 17-7 at half, won 27-20) to hand the Packers their first loss. Bears swept Minnesota LY, 19-16/23-13, as both teams had seven turnovers in the two games. Vikes scored one offensive TD in every game this season (four TD’s on 42 drives, with only two TD drives longer than 50 yards); they’ve run ball for 135 yds/game, which is pretty good. Vikings lost last three games before their bye, despite a defense allowing just 62.5 rushing yards per game.

Eagles (1-3) @ Jets (1-4)
Desperate time for these teams; Philly scored one TD on 33 drives in its three losses, but scored eight on 13 drives in their 56-21 win vs Lions- they need Westbrook back in lineup after bye week, and they need better pass blocking (gave up 12 sacks in their last game, on this same field). Jets played Giants last week, so they’ll be familiar with Eagle defense; Pennington will read defenses well, but can he stretch field? Only once in five games did Jets averaged six yards per pass attempt- they threw five picks in last two games, and lost last week, even though they had kick return and INT runback for TDs. Jets are allowing 33.7 pg in Giants Stadium. Philly is yet another road favorite that has yet to win on road.

Rams (0-5) @ Ravens (3-2)
St Louis is a mess; one of their few healthy offensive linemen had 50 yards in penalties last week, by himself, their DBs are all hurt, they have backups playing QB, RB and now Isaac Bruce is hurt, so no excuse for Raven defense not to dominate here. McNair should be highly motivated, since he lost Super Bowl to Rams, but Ravens scored just 13,9 points in last two games (one TD, 7 FGA, only three 3/outs on 18 drives in last two games)- they move ball well enough, but are awful in red zone (two TDs in last nine visits there). Under is 4-1 in St Louis games, 3-1 in last four Raven games. They played better last week with Frerotte at QB, but not well enough.

Titans (3-1) @ Buccaneers (3-2)
Two teams on up-tick here; Tennessee is 9-2 in last 11 games; their only ’07 loss is 22-20 to Colts, so would be hesitant to give them points, but Tampa won its two home games by 31-14/24-3 scores (albeit vs. two winless teams, Saints/Rams). Tennessee gave up only three points in second half vs Falcons last week, despite six of eight Atlanta drives starting in titan territory- That is solid defense. Tennessee gave up 10-14-13 points in its three wins, only let Indy score two offensive TDs on their 10 drives in that game. Field position is key for both teams; six of Bucs’ 10 offensive TDs, and five of Titans’ seven, have been on drives of 57 yards or less.

Redskins (3-1) @ Packers (4-1)
Green Bay gained 341 yards in first half against the Bears Sunday night, and led 17-7; in the second half, they gained total of 88 yards and lost 27-20; there was one five possession sequence where Pack ran total of 15 plays that gained 18 yards. Four punts and an INT, while the Bears rallied for a season-saving win. Pack had run ball for just 59.3 yg in their four wins- they had 121 Sunday, but did so little in second half, they lost. Redskins allowed 13-12-3 points in their wins, led 17-3 at half in their loss, but got outscored 21-0 in 2nd half of that game. Packers’ center is out (broken eye socket), that’s a critical position to use a sub. Last four Packer games went over total.

Panthers (3-2) @ Cardinals (3-2)
Arizona scored 55 points in winning last two games, has legit shot to make playoffs, but now they have to win game they’re expected to—underdog is 4-0-1 vs. spread in their games this season. Carr’s backup at QB are Matt Moore and Vinny Testaverde, signed during week, so hard to be enthused about Carolina team that was outgained by 98 yards in Superdome last week, but used dropped Saint passes to get road win. Arizona’s QB controversy ended with Leinart’s injury, so 36-yard Warner, two-time MVP, has keys to offense that scored 25.3 pg in last four games—both its losses came in final minute. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

Patriots (5-0) @ Cowboys (5-0)
New England is 15-1 in last 16 games vs NFC; they’ve scored 38-38-38-34-34 points in their games, winning them all by at least 17 points- they’ve yet to allow more than 17 points in a game, but Dallas averages 24.4 pg, in second half alone. Cowboys survived six turnovers in wild win Monday night; they’re working on short week here, with a shaky QB, but they make when they have to (17 for their last 28 on 3rd down). Bengals (6.1) are the only team to average more than 5.1 yards/pass attempt vs Pats; Cowboys have yet to average less than 6.2 in any game, and averaged 13.4/9.8 in their two home wins (Giants/Rams). Cowboys have not allowed offensive TD in last two games, but did allow four return TDs.

Raiders (2-2) @ Chargers (2-3)
San Diego ties for 1st place with win here, against team they beat twice LY (27-0/21-14), forcing 12 Raider 3/outs on 22 drives. Bolts ended three-game skid last week by waxing Broncos 41-3, Denver’s worst home loss since 1966, they had 214 rushing yards, and 270 passing, so we’ll see if that balance continues here. Oakland scored 25.3 ppg in splitting first four games- all four of their games went over the total, as did last four San Diego tilts. Chargers better gear up to stop run; since Oakland, in last three games, gained 200-186-299 running ball. Chargers gained 15 yards per pass attempt last week; Raiders allowed 5.3/4.3 in last two games, so interesting matchup there.

Saints (0-4) @ Seahawks (3-2)
Are the Seahawks aggressive enough? In five games, they’ve committed only 17 penalties (120 yards), their opponents 37 (for 293 yards). Maybe they need to be a little more assertive. In last four games, they’ve run ball for just 81.3 ypg. Hapless Saints scored 10-13-14-13 points in winless start; read article by observer at the Carolina game, who said Saint receivers were horrible last week, dropping numerous balls on big plays that cost NO dearly. Saints are 20-39 on 3rd down their last three games, not like they’re not making plays, just not enough to win. Seattle got blanked by Steelers, who were playing without two of its best defenders- they’re 2-0 at home, winning 20-6/24-21. Four of five Seattle games stayed under the total.


Monday, October 15

Giants (3-2) @ Falcons (1-4)
Resurgent Giants outscored last three opponents 58-10 in second half; calls for Coughlin’s head are now history. Atlanta had five takeaways last week, started six second half drives in Titan territory, but scored just three points on those six drives, losing 20-13 on INT for TD which got QB Harrington yanked for Leftwich. Giants are on roll, winning last three games; after allowing 478-368 yards in the first two games, they’ve held last three foes to 260-190-277 yards, much better. Not sure if Falcons taking back $19.9M of Vick’s bonus money affects this team, but it can’t be good. Four of five Giant games went over the total.