[Tommy]

Sunday, October 21

Cardinals (3-3) @ Redskins (3-2)
Leinart, Warner both out for Arizona, so Rattay is QB, bad news vs tough Redskinn defense that held Pack to 225 yards at Lambeau last week. Before both QBs got hurt, Arizona’s only losses had been by FG each (all three of their road games were decided by three points). Skins are 2-1 at home, winning by 3,31 points. NFC East home favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in non-division games, NFC West road dogs are 2-3-1. Arizona has 22 penalties for 201 yards in their last two games. Redskins held three of last four opponents under 5.5 yds per pass attempt; they’ve allowed one TD on opponents’ last 24 drives.

Falcons (1-5) @ Saints (1-4)
Saints win one ballgame, all of a sudden they’re 9-point favorites in rivalry game? Short week for Atlanta, off dismal Monday night performance; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 21-6-7 points, and completed less than half their passes in each of last two games. Saints didn’t score in second half at Seattle; they’ve been outscored 79-33 after halftime this season. Falcon receivers were bad Monday, which helps explain their 7-31 mark on third down in last two games. Saints held last four opponents under 100 yards rushing- last week was their first with less than two turnovers. All three Atlanta road games stayed under the total.

49ers (2-3) @ Giants (4-2)
Short week for red-hot Giants, with London trip on deck; they better not look ahead here, vs Niner club that lost last three games before its bye, by 21-20-2 points. Only once in five games has SF gained 200+ yards in game; they have two TDs on last 36 drives, and with Dilfer at QB, they’re lame on offense (5-26 on 3rd down, 0.6/4.6 ypp last two games). Giants won last four in row, by 7-13-11-21 points, scoring 26.5 pg (eight TDs on 23 drives in last two games); after allowing 478-368 yards in first two games, NY has allowed average of 252.8 ypg during win streak. Four of five 49er games stayed under the total.

Ravens (4-2) @ Bills (1-4)
Baltimore bullied bad teams last two weeks, holding Dilfer-Frerotte to one TD on 23 drives, in 9-7/22-3 wins; they’re 1-2 on road, losing at division rivals Bengals-Browns, and nipping Niners in weak effort, so they’re suspect on road, especially if Boller starts (they have one TD on 24 drives in last two games). First game for Bills after bye and Monday night meltdown vs. Dallas- their three home games (1-2) have been decided by total of five points- they were +6 in turnovers and lost Dallas game, which is really hard to do. Only once in four games have they averaged 4+ yards per pass attempt. Four of last five Raven games stayed under total.

Vikings (2-3) @ Cowboys (5-1)
Dallas’ last game before bye and three straight division games; they’re 3-1 vs spread as faves, 2-1 at home, with wins by 10-32 points- their last five opponents ran ball for 70.8 ypg, good news vs Viking squad averaging 170.2 ypg after 311-yard outburst in Chicago last week. Cowboy secondary can be exploited, but can Jackson (9-23/130 last week) do it? Minnesota losses are by 3-3-7 points; they turned ball over five times in only previous turf game (17-20 @ Detroit), have only four other giveaways (+5 TO ratio). NFC East home favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread out of division; NFC North road dogs are 2-4.

Patriots (6-0) @ Dolphins (0-6)
With New England 6-0 (against spread too), ’72 Dolphins have reason to worry about being last unbeaten team. Miami lost only home games 37-20/35-17, giving up nine TDs on 21 drives; 0-6 teams don’t have home field edge, especially ones that play in good weather cities, where fans are not as avid. Patriots finding reason to run up score on every opponent, scoring 34+ in all six games, winning road games by 24-21-21 points. I guess there is possible letdown after big Dallas win, but these Patriots seem totally focused right now, scoring 26 TDs on 68 drives (38.2%). Four of last five Miami games went over total.

Bucs (4-2) @ Lions (3-2)
Detroit is 2-0 at home, beating Vikings, Bears; their two losses are by 35-31 points. Hard to imagine Jeff Garcia’s Bucs inflicting that kind of damage, but Kiffin defenses always did pretty well vs Ram version of Martz Madness. Bucs are 1-2 on road, losing at Seattle (20-6), Indy (33-14), but 3-0 if they score more than 14 points; Lions haven’t held anyone under 17, and only one team under 21. Kitna’s been sacked 24 times in last four games; Lions are 3-20 (!5%) on third down last two games, after being 18-45 (40%) in first three. Tampa has 27 rushed for 47 yards in last two games; three of their last four games stayed under total.

Titans (3-2) @ Texans (3-3)
Key here is Young’s quad injury; will have to be really bad for him to miss game vs division rival/ hometown team that he tortured LY in pair of wins (26-20/28-22). Titans are 9-3 in last 12 games, 2-1 on road in ’07, allowing just 12.3 pg away from home (four TDs on 29 drives). Houston is 2-1 at home, losing to Colts; Texans allowed 30-26-37 points in their losses, 3-21-19 in wins- Titans cracked 20 mark in only one of five games (at then-winless Saints). Houston lost three of last four games, with only win by FG over 0-6 Dolphins. Under is 4-0-1 in Titan games, but 1-4 in last five Texan tilts.

Chiefs (3-3) @ Raiders (2-3)
Herm’s team won three of last four games; they’ve scored 13 or less points in all three losses, 30-27 in wins. Raiders allowed 23+ points in four of five games; they’re 1-1 at home (21-36/26-24). Chiefs are 1-2 on road, losing at Texans (3-20), Bears (10-20) before win at San Diego (30-16) that seemed to revitalize them. Oakland had three turnovers in all three of its losses; they’re 2-0 if they turn it over less than three times. Raiders allowed 347 rushing yards in last two games, good news for sluggish (under 75 rushing yards in 4 of 6 games) KC attack. Home side is 1-4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season. Four of five Oakland games went over total.

Bears (2-4) @ Eagles (2-3)
Chicago allowed 311 rushing yards last week, turned ball over four times (-4) and lost on 55-yard FG at gun; go figure. Griese was 26-45/269, Hester ran another punt back for a TD, so once-stodgy Bears are now fun to watch, more porous on defense (allowed 31.3 pg in last four games) but explosive with ball (seven TDs on last 40 drives, after two on first 35). Philly scored 56 points vs Lions in Week 3, but total of 44 in other four games; in their last two games, they’ve kicked three FGs in five visits to red zone, and have only one 80-yard+ TD drive all year (in 14 tries). Last four Chicago games went over; four of last five Eagle games stayed under.

Jets (1-5) @ Bengals (1-4)
Cincy lost last four games, Jets last three, so pair of desperate teams. Bengals are poor on defense (allowed 34 pg in last four), Gang Green is shaky with ball (scored 14 or less in four of six games, with only win vs 0-6 Miami). Jets allowed 339 rush yards in last two games; they’re 0-2 away from home, losing at Ravens (20-13), Bills (17-14). Bengals are -6 in turnovers during skid, throwing pair of picks in each of last three games- they allowed 294 rush yards in last two games. AFC North home favorites are 5-2 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Jets one of five teams without TD drive of less than 50 yards. Hard to endorse either side in this game.

Rams (0-6) @ Seahawks (3-3)
St Louis is real awful, with four losses by 14+ points; they’re 1-3 vs spread as underdog, -8 in turnovers the last five weeks, and on few occasions when they do get ball in position to score, PK Wilkins has been dreadful, missing three easy FGs already. Bulger expected to return at QB for Rams, after Frerotte threw five picks in Baltimore and got pummeled all day. Seattle lost last two games, getting outscored 49-10 in Steeler game and first half vs Saints; they’ve run ball for just 224 yards in last three games, as natives grumble about Alexander’s toughness. Under is 5-1 in Ram games, 3-1 in last four Seattle tilts.

Steelers (4-1) @ Broncos (2-3)
Denver lost last three games, but Rockies’ success has kept fans off their backs- they allowed 102 points in last three games (13 TDs on 26 drives!!!) and allowed 206.5 rushing yards/game over last four tilts, so interesting to see what adjustments they made during bye week. Steelers also had last week off; they’ve won games by 27-23-21-21 points, with only loss vs their old assistants in Arizona. Ben completed just 50% of passes in last two games, but Pitt has outscored their opponents 57-6 in first half of games this year. AFC North teams are 1-4-1 vs. spread on road, in non-division games, though, and Broncos are desperate home dog in night game.

Monday, October 22

Colts (5-0) @ Jaguars (4-1)
Last year, Jax ran ball for 566 yards (191-375) in splitting pair vs Colts, handing Indy 44-17 loss on this field- Jaguars won four in row since opening loss to Texans; they’ve allowed just 37 points in four home games, but Indy steamrolling towards showdown with Patriots- their road wins have been close (22-20/30-24). Jags allowing just 9.8 pg this year; they’ve run ball for 194.7 ypg in last three weeks, and are 28-55 on 3rd down during win streak, so they make plays to keep chains moving, which is critical, if they want to keep ball away from Manning. Four of five Indy games went over the total.