[Tommy]

Sunday, October 28

Browns (3-3) @ Rams (0-7)
St Louis is having the worst-case scenario season, with five losses by 14+ points, no home field edge, a horrible offensive line; one of their guards got arrested on his day off for hitting his wife. Great. Trap game for Browns,
0-2 on road (26-24 at Oakland, 34-17 at Foxboro) but with win here, slip into playoff contention. If you exclude Rams’ 34-31 home loss to Arizona, they’ve scored one TD on their last 58 drives- one writer called their OL worst in modern NFL history. Browns had last week off—this is their first game of year on artificial turf. Six of last seven Ram games stayed under total, but five of six Cleveland games went over.

Lions (4-2) @ Bears (3-4)
Detroit lost five of last six visits to Soldier Field, dropping last two, 34-7/38-6; their 37-27 home win vs Chicago four weeks ago (Lions scored 34 points in wild fourth quarter - Bears led 7-3 at half), was their first in last five series games. Griese led Chicago on 97-yard drive for their upset win in Philly, keeping their season alive, but Bears allowed 34 points in losing each of last two home games. In first meeting, Bears had 14 penalties for 102 yards, averaged just 2.8 yards per pass. Detroit has allowed 21-56-34 points in its three road games; they are 1-2 with less than three takeaways, with their two losses by 56-21/34-3 scores- they allowed 11.9/8.6 yards/pass attempt in those games.

Colts (6-0) @ Panthers (4-2)
Indy traveling again off physical Monday night division game, have Patriots on deck, but Carolina stuck between Carr/Testaverde under center, and Panthers are 0-2 at home (34-21 vs Texans, 20-7 vs Bucs) as home side is 0-6 in their ’07 games. Colts have four wins by 18+ points; they’re road wins are 22-20 (Titans), 30-24 (Texans), 29-7 (Jags). Carolina is coming off its bye; they’ve won three of last four games, have five INTs in last two games, after having zero in first four. Colts scored 29+ points in five of six games- only Texans held them to 22. Colts scored double figures in 11 of 12 halves this season, with second half at Tennessee (six) only time they didn’t. Last three Panther tilts stayed under.

Giants (5-2) vs Dolphins (0-7) (London, England)
Red-hot Giants cross pond to face a woeful Dolphin outfit whose best offensive player (RB Brown) is out for year (knee). Winless Fish have backup QB Lemon under center, trying to score enough points to offset porous defense that allowed 90 points in last two games, 31+ in five of last six. Giants won, covered last five games, with last four wins by 11+ points; they’ve given up just three TD’s on foes’ last 46 drives. Miami allowed 11 TD’s on opponents’ last 20 drives, with Browns lighting them up for 41 points. Not sure if distractions of travel will neutralize huge edge Giants have in almost every area of this game. 90,000 expected for night game at Wembley Stadium.

Raiders (2-4) @ Titans (4-2)
Young expected back under center for Titans, who blew 32-7 lead in Houston last week, only to rally for winning FG at gun behind backup QB (and former Raider) Collins, as PK Bironas set NFL record with eight FGs. Home side won four of last five series games, with Raiders 1-3 in this state; average total in last five series games, 64.2. Oakland scored just 24 points (two TD’s on 22 drives) in losing both games since its bye; they’re 2-1 as road dog, winning at Miami, losing at Denver (23-20OT), San Diego (28-14). Tennessee split its two home games, losing to Colts (22-20), beating Falcons (20-13)- their wins this year are by 7-17-3-2 points. Under is 4-1-1 in Titan games.

Eagles (2-4) @ Vikings (2-4)
If you take away 56-21 win vs the Lions, Philly has scored three TD’s on 50 drives this year (they had eight TD’s on 13 drives vs Lions). Eagle defense allowed the game-winning 97-yard TD drive in last 2:00 to Griese’s Bears last week, so now their season hangs in peril, with Cowboys, Skins on deck in next two weeks. Minnesota coach Childress was once OC for Eagles, so he knows McNabb well; problem is, his own QB isn’t NFL-ready (6-19 passing last week); Vikings are 0-4 if they score less than 24 points—Philly’s last three opponents scored 16-9-19 points. Five of six Philly games stayed under total this season. This is Eagles’ first visit here in a decade.

Steelers (4-2) @ Bengals (2-4)
Home side lost last six series games, with Steelers 11-4 in last 15, 8-1 in last nine here, winning last six in Queen City, by 27-7-5-14-14-6OT points). Bengals snapped four-game skid last week, rallying from 20-10 halftime deficit; they’re 0-3 when they score less than 27 points. Steelers lost last two road games; all four of their wins this season are by 21+ points. Last week, Denver (7.5) was first team to average more than 5.5 yds/pass attempt vs Steelers in ’07. Bengal defense has given up 33.4 pg in last five games; they’re 0-4 with negative turnover ratio, 2-0 with positive one. In last three games, Steelers scored 7-7-7 in first half; in first three games, they had 17-12-14 points at the half.

Bills (2-4) @ Jets (1-6)
Buffalo (+3.5) won first meeting 17-14 four weeks ago, in game that was 0-0 at half, a game that sent Jets spinning on current four-game skid; this series split in seven of last eight years- Bills lost four of last five visits here, and are 0-2 on road in ’07, losing 26-3 at Pittsburgh (+9.5), 38-7 at Foxboro (+16), much tougher foes than they face here. Jets are 1-3 in the Swamp; their only win was 31-28 win vs 0-7 Miami (led 31-13 late in game)- they trailed at half only once during current skid, twice leading by 10. Only once in seven games have Jets outscored its opponent in second half (outscored 94-41 in second half of last five games). Jet run defense allowed 188-151-177 yards in last three weeks.

Texans (3-4) @ Chargers (3-3)
Unsure of site of this game, due to wildfires in San Diego area; would guess it will be Arizona, like last time fires forced Bolts out of town. Ton of distractions for Charger staff, players and coaches, as real life intrudes. Houston rallied from 32-7 deficit to take lead in last minute last week, but couldn’t prevent Titans from driving field for eighth FG of day, the game-winner. Texans lost field position battle by whopping 24-yard average last week; Titans started seven drives in Texan territory, kicking five FGs on those drives. Not sure if Rosenfels or Schaub will QB Texans; both seem capable. Houston is now -9 in turnovers their last five games. Way too many variables to pick this game.

Jaguars (4-2) @ Buccaneers (4-3)
Garrard is out (ankle), Quinn Gray is QB, and backup needs to be signed, as WR Jones (played QB at Arkansas) was #3 QB Monday. Jags are also traveling on short week, albeit fairly short trip to Tampa, where Bucs are 3-0 this season, winning by 31-14/24-3/13-10 scores. Tampa allowed just three TD’s on 30 drives at home this year. Jags are 2-0 on road, winning at Denver, Kansas City, two tough places to play, but that was with Garrard under center. Home side won all three series games, with Bucs winning 17-16 in only game here, back in ’95). Four of last five Tampa games stayed under the total.

Saints (2-4) @ 49ers (2-4)
Niners are go-against team as long as Dilfer is QB; they’ve lost last four games, scoring 10.3 pg (four TD’s on 46 drives), they’re -6 in turnovers last 3 weeks. Saints scored 25 pg in winning last two weeks, after 0-4 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing only grass game 31-14 at Tampa. 49ers lost last two home games (23-3 vs Seattle, 9-7 vs. Ravens) scoring one TD on last 25 home drives. Saints scored 33 pg in winning last three series games, but all three were in Big Easy; they lost nine of last 11 visits to this site, but that was back when teams were division rivals, and Niners were much stronger team. Saints’ pass defense improved in last two games.

Redskins (4-2) @ Patriots (7-0)
Pats won, covered first seven games, scoring 34+ points in all seven; they’ve won home games 38-14/38-7/34-17 but Colts are on deck, while Skins are capable foe getting ridiculously high spread. Skins’ only losses are 24-17 at home to Giants (they led 17-3 at half), 17-14 at Lambeau (led 14-7 at half)—they’ve held every foe but Giants under 20 points. Arizona is only team that has averaged more than 5.4 yards per pass attempt against them. Patriots are a machine right now, with 32 TD’s on 68 drives, with 13 FGs tried and only 15 3/outs. Over is 6-1 in their games; under is 4-2 in Washington’s games. Very difficult to go against Brady, approaching best-ever tier of QB’s.


Monday, October 29

Packers (5-1) @ Broncos (3-3)
Second straight night home game for Denver, but Rockies could be playing Game 5 of World Series two miles away at same time, which should distract locals. Broncos have allowed 23-38-41-28 points in last four games and three of those were at home- they’ve allowed 13 TD’s on foes’ last 28 drives. Pack’s only loss was 27-20 home night game vs Bears, game they led 17-7 at half. AFC teams are only up 14-12 vs NFC after seven weeks, closer than recent years. Team that won battle for field position has won every Packer game. Last five Denver games went over total, as did four of last five Green Bay tilts. Broncos have three wins, by 1-3-3 points.